Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yIn decision-making processes, reliability and risk aversion play a decisive role. The aim of this study is to perform an uncertainty assessment of the effects of future scenarios of sustainable groundwater pumping strategies on the quantitative and chemical status of an aquifer. The good status of the aquifer is defined according to the terms established by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). A decision support systems (DSS) is presented, which makes use of a stochastic inverse model (GC method) and geostatistical approaches to calibrate equally likely realizations of hydraulic conductivity (K) fields for a particular case study. These K fields are conditional to available field data, including hard and soft information. Then, different future scenarios of groundwater pumping strategies are generated, based on historical information and WFD standards, and simulated for each one of the equally likely K fields. The future scenarios lead to different environmental impacts and levels of socioeconomic development of the region and, hence, to a different degree of acceptance among stakeholders. We have identified the different stakeholders implied in the decision-making process, the objectives pursued and the alternative actions that should be considered by stakeholders in a public participation project (PPP). The MonteCarlo simulation provides a highly effective way for uncertainty assessment and allows presenting the results in a simple and understandable way even for non-experts stakeholders. The methodology has been successfully applied to a real case study and lays the foundations to performa PPP and stakeholders' involvement in a decisionmaking process as required by the WFD. The results of the methodology can help the decision-making process to come up with the best policies and regulations for a groundwater system under uncertainty in groundwater parameters and management strategies and involving stakeholders with conflicting interests.Llopis Albert, C.; Palacios Marqués, D.; Merigó -Lindahl, JM. (2016). Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling. Environmental Earth Sciences. 75(19):1-11. doi:10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yS1117519Arhonditsis GB, Perhar G, Zhang W, Massos E, Shi M, Das A (2008) Addressing equifinality and uncertainty in eutrophication models. Water Resour Res 44:W01420. doi: 10.1029/2007WR005862Capilla JE, Llopis-Albert C (2009) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. 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Comput Geosci 16(4):395–440Harbaugh AW, Banta ER, Hill MC and McDonald MG (2000) MODFLOW- 2000, The US geological survey modular groundwater model-user guide to modularization concepts and the groundwater flow process. US Geol. Surv. Open-File Rep 00–92, 12Hu LY (2000) Gradual deformation and iterative calibration of Gaussian related stochastic models. Math Geol 32(1):87–108Jagelke J, Barthel R (2005) Conceptualization and implementation of a regional groundwater model for the Neckar catchment in the framework of an integrated regional model. Adv Geosci 5:105–111Llopis-Albert C (2008) Stochastic inverse modeling conditional to flow, mass transport and secondary information. Universitat Politècnica de València, València. ISBN 978-84-691-9796-7Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009a) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Demonstration on a synthetic aquifer. J Hydrol 371:53–55. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.014Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009b) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Application to the macrodispersion experiment (MADE-2) site, on Columbus air force base in Mississippi (USA). J Hydrol 371:75–84. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.016Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010a) Stochastic simulation of non-gaussian 3D conductivity fields in a fractured medium with multiple statistical populations: a case study. J Hydrol Eng 15(7):554–566. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000214Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010b) Stochastic inverse modeling of hydraulic conductivity fields taking into account independent stochastic structures: a 3D case study. J Hydrol 391:277–288. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.028Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez D (2014) Discussion about the validity of sharp-interface models to deal with seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. 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US geological survey technical manual of water resources investigation, Book 6, US geological survey, Reston, Virginia, 586Molina JL, Pulido-Velazquez M, Llopis-Albert C, Peña-Haro S (2013) Stochastic hydro-economic model for groundwater quality management using Bayesian networks. Water Sci Technol 67(3):579–586. doi: 10.2166/wst.2012.598Peña-Haro S, Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez M (2010) Fertilizer standards for controlling groundwater nitrate pollution from agriculture: El Salobral-Los Llanos case study, Spain. J Hydrol 392:174–187. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.08.006Peña-Haro S, Pulido-Velazquez M, Llopis-Albert C (2011) Stochastic hydro-economic modeling for optimal management of agricultural groundwater nitrate pollution under hydraulic conductivity uncertainty. 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The Physics of turbulent and dynamically unstable Herbig-Haro jets

The overall properties of the Herbig-Haro objects such as centerline velocity, transversal profile of velocity, flow of mass and energy are explained adopting two models for the turbulent jet. The complex shapes of the Herbig-Haro objects, such as the arc in HH34 can be explained introducing the combination of different kinematic effects such as velocity behavior along the main direction of the jet and the velocity of the star in the interstellar medium. The behavior of the intensity or brightness of the line of emission is explored in three different cases : transversal 1D cut, longitudinal 1D cut and 2D map. An analytical explanation for the enhancement in intensity or brightness such as usually modeled by the bow shock is given by a careful analysis of the geometrical properties of the torus.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Spac

A z=1.85 galaxy group in CEERS: evolved, dustless, massive intra-halo light and a brightest group galaxy in the making

We present CEERS JWST/NIRCam imaging of a massive galaxy group at z=1.85, to explore the early JWST view on massive group formation in the distant Universe. The group contains >16 members (including 6 spectros. confirmations) down to log10(Mstar/Msun)=8.5, including the brightest group galaxy (BGG) in the process of actively assembling at this redshift. The BGG is comprised of multiple merging components extending ~3.6" (30kpc) across the sky. The BGG contributes 69% of the group's total galactic stellar mass, with one of the merging components containing 76% of the total mass of the BGG and a SFR>1810Msun/yr. Most importantly, we detect intra-halo light (IHL) in several HST and JWST/NIRCam bands, allowing us to construct a state-of-the-art rest-frame UV-NIR Spectral Energy Distribution of the IHL for the first time at this high redshift. This allows stellar population characterisation of both the IHL and member galaxies, as well as the morphology distribution of group galaxies vs. their star-formation activity when coupled with Herschel data. We create a stacked image of the IHL, giving us a sensitivity to extended emission of 28.5 mag/arcsec2 at rest-frame 1um. We find that the IHL is extremely dust poor (Av~0), containing an evolved stellar population of log10(t50/yr)=8.8, corresponding to a formation epoch for 50% of the stellar material 0.63Gyr before z=1.85. There is no evidence of ongoing star-formation in the IHL. The IHL in this group at z=1.85 contributes ~10% of the total stellar mass, comparable with what is observed in local clusters. This suggests that the evolution of the IHL fraction is more self-similar with redshift than predicted by some models, challenging our understanding of IHL formation during the assembly of high-redshift clusters. JWST is unveiling a new side of group formation at this redshift, which will evolve into Virgo-like structures in the local Universe.Comment: 14 pages + appendix, 11 figures, 4 tables. Accepted to A&A on 15th May 202

Extremely Red Galaxies at z = 5-9 with MIRI and NIRSpec:Dusty Galaxies or Obscured Active Galactic Nuclei?

We study a new population of extremely red objects (EROs) recently discovered by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) based on their NIRCam colors F277W − F444W &gt; 1.5 mag. We find 37 EROs in the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS) field with F444W &lt; 28 mag and photometric redshifts between 5 &lt; z &lt; 7, with median z = 6.9 − 1.6 + 1.0 . Surprisingly, despite their red long-wavelength colors, these EROs have blue short-wavelength colors (F150W − F200W ∼ 0 mag) indicative of bimodal spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with a red, steep slope in the rest-frame optical, and a blue, flat slope in the rest-frame UV. Moreover, all these EROs are unresolved, point-like sources in all NIRCam bands. We analyze the SEDs of eight of them with MIRI and NIRSpec observations using stellar population models and active galactic nucleus (AGN) templates. We find that dusty galaxies or obscured AGNs provide similarly good SED fits but different stellar properties: massive and dusty, log M ⋆ / M ⊙ ∼ 10 and A V ≳ 3 mag, or low mass and obscured, log M ⋆ / M ⊙ ∼ 7.5 and A V ∼ 0 mag, hosting an obscured quasi-stellar object (QSO). SED modeling does not favor either scenario, but their unresolved sizes are more suggestive of AGNs. If any EROs are confirmed to have log M ⋆ / M ⊙ ≳ 10.5, it would increase the pre-JWST number density at z &gt; 7 by up to a factor ∼60. Similarly, if they are QSOs with luminosities in the L bol &gt; 1045-46 erg s−1 range, their number would exceed that of bright blue QSOs by more than three orders of magnitude. Additional photometry at mid-infrared wavelengths will reveal the true nature of the red continuum emission in these EROs and will place this puzzling population in the right context of galaxy evolution.</p

JWST CEERS probes the role of stellar mass and morphology in obscuring galaxies

A population of massive galaxies invisible or very faint in deep optical/near-infrared surveys, but brighter at longer wavelengths has been uncovered in the past years. However, the nature of these optically dark/faint galaxies (OFGs, among other nomenclatures) is highly uncertain. In this work, we investigate the drivers of dust attenuation in the JWST era. Particularly, we study the role of stellar mass, size, and orientation in obscuring star-forming galaxies (SFGs) at $3 < z < 7.5$, focusing on understanding why galaxies like OFGs are so faint at optical/near-infrared wavelengths. We find that stellar mass is the primary proxy of dust attenuation among those studied. Effective radius and axis ratio do not show a clear link with dust attenuation, with the effect of orientation close to random. However, there is a subset of highly dust attenuated ($A_V > 1$, typically) SFGs, of which OFGs are a specific case. For this subset, we find that the key distinctive feature is their compact size (for massive systems with $\log (M_{*}/M_{\odot}) > 10$), exhibiting 30% smaller effective radius than the average SFGs at the same stellar mass and redshift. On the contrary, they do not exhibit a preference for low axis ratios (i.e., edge-on disks). The results in this work show stellar mass as a primary proxy of dust attenuation and compact stellar light profiles behind thick dust columns obscuring typical massive SFGs.Comment: Submitted to A&A. 13 pages, 9 figure

Primary Black Hole Spin in OJ 287 as Determined by the General Relativity Centenary Flare

OJ 287 is a quasi-periodic quasar with roughly 12 year optical cycles. It displays prominent outbursts that are predictable in a binary black hole model. The model predicted a major optical outburst in 2015 December. We found that the outburst did occur within the expected time range, peaking on 2015 December 5 at magnitude 12.9 in the optical R -band. Based on Swift /XRT satellite measurements and optical polarization data, we find that it included a major thermal component. Its timing provides an accurate estimate for the spin of the primary black hole, ##IMG## [http://ej.iop.org/images/2041-8205/819/2/L37/apjl523055ieqn1.gif] $i =0.313pm 0.01$ . The present outburst also confirms the established general relativistic properties of the system such as the loss of orbital energy to gravitational radiation at the 2% accuracy level, and it opens up the possibility of testing the black hole no-hair theorem with 10% accuracy during the present decade.Peer reviewe

A Search for QPOs in the Blazar OJ287: Preliminary Results from the 2015/2016 Observing Campaign

We analyse the light curve in the R band of the blazar OJ287, gathered during the 2015/2016 observing season. We did a search for quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) using several methods over a wide range of timescales. No statistically significant periods were found in the high-frequency domain both in the ground-based data and in Kepler observations. In the longer-period domain, the Lomb–Scargle periodogram revealed several peaks above the 99% significance level. The longest one—about 95 days—corresponds to the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) period of the more massive black hole. The 43-day period could be an alias, or it can be attributed to accretion in the form of a two-armed spiral wave.Peer reviewe

International entrepreneurship in SMEs: a study of influencing factors in the textile industry

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11365-012-0242-3International entrepreneurship is an incipient research area with a rapidly increasing body of knowledge and contributions. An important part of this literature has focused on the analysis of the contributing factors to IE development. From these studies, this work attempts to analyse and validate through an integrative model the effect on this construct in SME of some of the main factors proposed by the literature such as Skills and Competences, Attitude and Proactiveness, Creativity and Innovation, Networking, Employees and Activity. To proceed with this aim, we conducted an empirical research focused on 174 textile SME in Spain. The results obtained confirm a positive relationship between the studied factors and the IE development. 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