Variola minor in coalfield areas of England and Wales, 1921–34: geographical determinants of a national smallpox epidemic that spread out of effective control

This paper uses techniques of binary logistic regression to identify the spatial determinants of the last national epidemic of smallpox to spread in England and Wales, the variola minor epidemic of 1921–34. Adjusting for age and county-level variations in vaccination coverage in infancy, the analysis identifies a dose-response gradient with increasing odds of elevated smallpox rates in local government areas with (i) medium (odds ratio [OR] = 5.32, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI] 1.96–14.41) and high (OR = 11.32, 95% CI 4.20–31.59) coal mining occupation rates and (ii) medium (OR = 16.74, 95% CI 2.24–125.21) and high (OR = 63.43, 95% CI 7.82–497.21) levels of residential density. The results imply that the spatial transmission of variola virus was facilitated by the close spatial packing of individuals, with a heightened transmission risk in coal mining areas of the country. A syndemic interaction between common respiratory conditions arising from exposure to coal dust and smallpox virus transmission is postulated to have contributed to the findings. We suggest that further studies of the geographical intersection of coal mining and acute infections that are transmitted via respiratory secretions are warranted

Numerical and Experimental Investigation of Circulation in Short Cylinders

In preparation for an experimental study of magnetorotational instability (MRI) in liquid metal, we explore Couette flows having height comparable to the gap between cylinders, centrifugally stable rotation, and high Reynolds number. Experiments in water are compared with numerical simulations. Simulations show that endcaps corotating with the outer cylinder drive a strong poloidal circulation that redistributes angular momentum. Predicted azimuthal flow profiles agree well with experimental measurements. Spin-down times scale with Reynolds number as expected for laminar Ekman circulation; extrapolation from two-dimensional simulations at $Re\le 3200$ agrees remarkably well with experiment at $Re\sim 10^6$. This suggests that turbulence does not dominate the effective viscosity. Further detailed numerical studies reveal a strong radially inward flow near both endcaps. After turning vertically along the inner cylinder, these flows converge at the midplane and depart the boundary in a radial jet. To minimize this circulation in the MRI experiment, endcaps consisting of multiple, differentially rotating rings are proposed. Simulations predict that an adequate approximation to the ideal Couette profile can be obtained with a few rings

The physical structure of the point-symmetric and quadrupolar planetary nebula NGC 6309

We analyse the point-symmetric planetary nebula NGC 6309 in terms of its three-dimensional structure and of internal variations of the physical conditions to deduce the physical processes involved in its formation. We used VLA-D 3.6-cm continuum, ground-based, and HST-archive imaging as well as long slit high- and low-dispersion spectroscopy. The low-dispersion spectra indicate a high excitation nebula, with low to medium variations of its internal physical conditions. In the optical images, the point-symmetric knots show a lack of [NII] emission as compared with similar features previously known in other PNe. A rich internal structure of the central region is seen in the HST images, resembling a deformed torus. Long slit high-dispersion spectra reveal a complex kinematics in the central region. The spectral line profiles from the external regions of NGC 6309 indicate expanding lobes (~40 km/s) as those generally found in bipolar nebulae. Finally, we have found evidence for the presence of a faint halo, possibly related to the envelope of the AGB-star progenitor. Our data indicate that NGC 6309 is a quadrupolar nebula with two pairs of bipolar lobes whose axes are oriented PA=40 and PA=76. Equatorial and polar velocities for these two pairs of lobes are 29 and 86 km/s for the bipolar system at PA=40 and 25 and 75 km/s for the bipolar system at PA=76. There is also a central torus that is expanding at 25 km/s. Kinematical age for all these structures is around 3700 to 4000 yr. We conclude that NGC 6309 was formed by a set of well-collimated bipolar outflows (jets), which were ejected in the initial stages of its formation as a planetary nebula. These jets carved the bipolar lobes in the previous AGB wind and their remnants are now observed as the point-symmetric knots tracing the edges of the lobes.Comment: To be published in Astronomy & Astrophysics; 11 pages, 8 figures, 4 table

Does a 'direct' transfer protocol reduce time to coronary angiography for patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes? A prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: National guidelines recommend 'early' coronary angiography within 96 h of presentation for patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS). Most patients with NSTE-ACS present to their district general hospital (DGH), and await transfer to the regional cardiac centre for angiography. This care model has inherent time delays, and delivery of timely angiography is problematic. The objective of this study was to assess a novel clinical care pathway for the management of NSTE-ACS, known locally as the Heart Attack Centre-Extension or HAC-X, designed to rapidly identify patients with NSTE-ACS while in DGH emergency departments (ED) and facilitate transfer to the regional interventional centre for 'early' coronary angiography. METHODS: This was an observational study of 702 patients divided into two groups; 391 patients treated before the instigation of the HAC-X pathway (Pre-HAC-X), and 311 patients treated via the novel pathway (Post-HAC-X). Our primary study end point was time from ED admission to coronary angiography. We also assessed the length of hospital stay. RESULTS: Median time from ED admission to coronary angiography was 7.2 (IQR 5.1-10.2) days pre-HAC-X compared to 1.0 (IQR 0.7-2.0) day post-HAC-X (p<0.001). Median length of hospital stay was 3.0 (IQR 2.0-6.0) days post-HAC-X v 9.0 (IQR 6.0-14.0) days pre-HAC-X (p<0.0005). This equates to a reduction of six hospital bed days per NSTE-ACS admission. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of this novel care pathway was associated with significant reductions in time to angiography and in total hospital bed occupancy for patients with NSTE-ACS

Observational Implications of Precessing Protostellar Discs and Jets

We consider the dynamics of a protostellar disc in a binary system where the disc is misaligned with the orbital plane of the binary, with the aim of determining the observational consequences for such systems. The disc wobbles with a period approximately equal to half the binary's orbital period and precesses on a longer timescale. We determine the characteristic timescale for realignment of the disc with the orbital plane due to dissipation. If the dissipation is determined by a simple isotropic viscosity then we find, in line with previous studies, that the alignment timescale is of order the viscous evolution timescale. However, for typical protostellar disc parameters, if the disc tilt exceeds the opening angle of the disc, then tidally induced shearing within the disc is transonic. In general, hydrodynamic instabilities associated with the internally driven shear result in extra dissipation which is expected to drastically reduce the alignment timescale. For large disc tilts the alignment timescale is then comparable to the precession timescale, while for smaller tilt angles $\delta$, the alignment timescale varies as $(\sin \delta)^{-1}$. We discuss the consequences of the wobbling, precession and rapid realignment for observations of protostellar jets and the implications for binary star formation mechanisms.Comment: MNRAS, in press. 10 pages. Also available at http://www.ast.cam.ac.uk/~mbat

Outflows from the high-mass protostars NGC 7538 IRS1/2 observed with bispectrum speckle interferometry -- Signatures of flow precession

NGC 7538 IRS1 is a high-mass (approx. 30 M_sun) protostar with a CO outflow, an associated UCHII region, and a linear methanol maser structure, which might trace a Keplerian-rotating circumstellar disk. The directions of the various associated axes are misaligned with each other. We investigate the near-infrared morphology of the source to clarify the relations among the various axes. K'-band bispectrum speckle interferometry was performed at two 6-meter-class telescopes -- the BTA 6m telescope and the 6.5m MMT. Complementary IRAC images from the Spitzer Space Telescope Archive were used to relate the structures detected with the outflow at larger scales. High-dynamic range images show fan-shaped outflow structure in which we detect 18 stars and several blobs of diffuse emission. We interpret the misalignment of various outflow axes in the context of a disk precession model, including numerical hydrodynamic simulations of the molecular emission. The precession period is approx. 280 years and its half-opening angle is 40 degrees. A possible triggering mechanism is non-coplanar tidal interaction of an (undiscovered) close companion with the circumbinary protostellar disk. Our observations resolve the nearby massive protostar NGC 7538 IRS2 as a close binary with separation of 195 mas. We find indications for shock interaction between the outflow activities in IRS1 and IRS2. Indications of outflow precession have been discovered to date in a number of massive protostars, all with large precession angles 20--45 degrees. This might explain the difference between the outflow widths in low- and high-mass stars and add support to a common collimation mechanism.Comment: 20 pages; 8 figures; Accepted by A&A on April 10, 2006; Image quality reduced due to astro-ph file size limitations; Please download a version with high-quality images from http://www.mpifr-bonn.mpg.de/staff/tpreibis/ngc7538.pd

Highly efficient bi-allelic mutation rates using TALENs in Xenopus tropicalis

In the past decade, Xenopus tropicalis has emerged as a powerful new amphibian genetic model system, which offers all of the experimental advantages of its larger cousin, Xenopus laevis. Here we investigated the efficiency of transcription activator-like effector nucleases (TALENs) for generating targeted mutations in endogenous genes in X. tropicalis. For our analysis we targeted the tyrosinase (oculocutaneous albinism IA) (tyr) gene, which is required for the production of skin pigments, such as melanin. We injected mRNA encoding TALENs targeting the first exon of the tyr gene into two-cell-stage embryos. Surprisingly, we found that over 90% of the founder animals developed either partial or full albinism, suggesting that the TALENs induced bi-allelic mutations in the tyr gene at very high frequency in the F0 animals. Furthermore, mutations tyr gene were efficiently transmitted into the F1 progeny, as evidenced by the generation of albino offspring. These findings have far reaching implications in our quest to develop efficient reverse genetic approaches in this emerging amphibian model

Height and timing of growth spurt during puberty in young people living with vertically acquired HIV in Europe and Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe growth during puberty in young people with vertically acquired HIV. DESIGN: Pooled data from 12 paediatric HIV cohorts in Europe and Thailand. METHODS: One thousand and ninety-four children initiating a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor or boosted protease inhibitor based regimen aged 1-10 years were included. Super Imposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) models described growth from age 8 years using three parameters (average height, timing and shape of the growth spurt), dependent on age and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) (WHO references) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Multivariate regression explored characteristics associated with these three parameters. RESULTS: At ART initiation, median age and HAZ was 6.4 [interquartile range (IQR): 2.8, 9.0] years and -1.2 (IQR: -2.3 to -0.2), respectively. Median follow-up was 9.1 (IQR: 6.9, 11.4) years. In girls, older age and lower HAZ at ART initiation were independently associated with a growth spurt which occurred 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.20-0.62) years later in children starting ART age 6 to 10 years compared with 1 to 2 years and 1.50 (1.21-1.78) years later in those starting with HAZ less than -3 compared with HAZ at least -1. Later growth spurts in girls resulted in continued height growth into later adolescence. In boys starting ART with HAZ less than -1, growth spurts were later in children starting ART in the oldest age group, but for HAZ at least -1, there was no association with age. Girls and boys who initiated ART with HAZ at least -1 maintained a similar height to the WHO reference mean. CONCLUSION: Stunting at ART initiation was associated with later growth spurts in girls. Children with HAZ at least -1 at ART initiation grew in height at the level expected in HIV negative children of a comparable age

The kinematics in the pc-scale jets of AGN The case of S5 1803+784

We present a kinematic analysis of jet component motion in the VLBI jet of the BL Lac object S5 1803+784, which does not reveal long-term outward motion for most of the components. Understanding the complex kinematic phenomena can possibly provide insights into the differences between quasars and BL Lac objects. The blazar S5 1803+784 has been studied with VLBI at $\nu$ =1.6, 2.3, 5, 8.4, and 15 GHz between 1993.88 and 2005.68 in 26 observing runs. We (re)analyzed the data and present Gaussian model-fits. We collected the already published kinematic information for this source from the literature and re-identified the components according to the new scenario presented in this paper. Altogether, 94 epochs of observations have been investigated. A careful study of the long-term kinematics reveals a new picture for component motion in S5 1803+784. In contrast to previously discussed motion scenarios, we find that the jet structure within 12 mas of the core can most easily be described by the coexistence of several bright jet features that remain on the long-term at roughly constant core separations (in addition to the already known {\it stationary} jet component $\sim$ 1.4 mas) and one faint component moving with an apparent superluminal speed ($\sim$ 19c, based on 3 epochs). While most of the components maintain long-term roughly constant distances from the core, we observe significant, smooth changes in their position angles. We report on an evolution of the whole jet ridge line with time over the almost 12 years of observations. The width of the jet changes periodically with a period of $\sim$ 8 to 9 years. We find a correlation between changes in the position angle and maxima in the total flux-density. We present evidence for a geometric origin of the phenomena and discuss possible models.Comment: The manuscript will be published by A&