A corporate failure prediction model for non-financial South African corporates incorporating best practices used by the credit industry

In the context of the current macroeconomic environment there is an expectation of an increase in South African non-financial corporate failure, where advance prediction thereof will become even more important. A number of South African non-financial corporate failures have occurred following the financial crisis. In addition, South Africa experienced a watershed moment with the first default on a non-financial corporate bond in 2013. At the same time, with the adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) framework there have been significant advances in the quality of financial information which should improve its usage in predicting corporate failure. This study used the latest sample to date of listed South African non-financial corporates that met the definition of failure but limited the universe of financial information to that which was prepared under IFRS. At the same time, adjustments were made to the financial data based upon pre-selection of independent credit statistic variables most commonly used in ranking relative credit risk for non-financial corporates. Additionally, equity market price data was introduced into the model to add a forward-looking information consideration. This resulted in an eleven variable model where differentiation of corporate failure was facilitated through the use of multiple discriminant analysis

Impact of pre-transplant rituximab on survival after autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for diffuse large B cell lymphoma

Incorporation of the anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody rituximab into front-line regimens to treat diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has resulted in improved survival. Despite this progress, however, many patients develop refractory or recurrent DLBCL and then undergo autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AuHCT). It is unclear to what extent pre-transplant exposure to rituximab affects outcomes after AuHCT Outcomes of 994 patients receiving AuHCT for DLBCL between 1996 and 2003 were analyzed according to whether rituximab was (n = 176; +R cohort) or was not (n = 818; -R cohort) administered with front-line or salvage therapy before AuHCT The +R cohort had superior progression-free survival (PFS; 50% vs 38%; P = .008) and overall survival (OS; 57% vs 45%; P = .006) at 3 years. Platelet and neutrophil engraftment were not affected by exposure to rituximab. Nonrelapse mortality (NRM) did not differ significantly between the 2 cohorts. In multivariate analysis, the +R cohort had improved PFS (relative risk of relapse/progression or death, 0.64; P <.001) and improved OS (relative risk of death, 0.74; P = .039). We conclude that pre-transplant rituximab is associated with a lower rate of progression and improved survival after AuHCT for DLBCL, with no evidence of impaired engraftment or increased NRM

Influence of age and histology on outcome in adult non-hodgkin lymphoma patients undergoing autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT): A report from The Center For International Blood & Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR)

To compare the clinical outcomes of older (age ≥55 years) non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) patients with younger NHL patients (<55 years) receiving autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) while adjusting for patient-, disease-, and treatment-related variables, we compared autologous HCT outcomes in 805 NHL patients aged ≥55 years to 1949 NHL patients <55 years during the years 1990–2000 using data reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR). In multivariate analysis, older patients with aggressive histologies were 1.86 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.43-2.43, P<.001) more likely than younger patients to experience treatment-related mortality (TRM). Relative death risks were 1.33 times (CI 1.04-1.71, P=.024) and 1.50 times (CI 1.33-16.9, P<.001) higher in older compared to younger patients with follicular grade I/II and aggressive histologies, respectively. Autologous HCT in older NHL patients is feasible, but most disease-related outcomes are statistically inferior to younger patients. Studies addressing supportive care particular to older patients, who are most likely to benefit from this approach, are recommended