Safety and effectiveness of SGLT2 inhibitors in a UK population with type 2 diabetes and aged over 70 years:an instrumental variable approach

Aims/hypothesis: Older adults are under-represented in trials, meaning the benefits and risks of glucose-lowering agents in this age group are unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the safety and effectiveness of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) in people with type 2 diabetes aged over 70 years using causal analysis. Methods: Hospital-linked UK primary care data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, 2013–2020) were used to compare adverse events and effectiveness in individuals initiating SGLT2i compared with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i). Analysis was age-stratified: &lt;70 years (SGLT2i n=66,810, DPP4i n=76,172), ≥70 years (SGLT2i n=10,419, DPP4i n=33,434). Outcomes were assessed using the instrumental variable causal inference method and prescriber preference as the instrument. Results: Risk of diabetic ketoacidosis was increased with SGLT2i in those aged ≥70 (incidence rate ratio compared with DPP4i: 3.82 [95% CI 1.12, 13.03]), but not in those aged &lt;70 (1.12 [0.41, 3.04]). However, incidence rates with SGLT2i in those ≥70 was low (29.6 [29.5, 29.7]) per 10,000 person-years. SGLT2i were associated with similarly increased risk of genital infection in both age groups (incidence rate ratio in those &lt;70: 2.27 [2.03, 2.53]; ≥70: 2.16 [1.77, 2.63]). There was no evidence of an increased risk of volume depletion, poor micturition control, urinary frequency, falls or amputation with SGLT2i in either age group. In those ≥70, HbA1c reduction was similar between SGLT2i and DPP4i (−0.3 mmol/mol [−1.6, 1.1], −0.02% [0.1, 0.1]), but in those &lt;70, SGLT2i were more effective (−4 mmol/mol [4.8, −3.1], −0.4% [−0.4, −0.3]). Conclusions/interpretation: Causal analysis suggests SGLT2i are effective in adults aged ≥70 years, but increase risk for genital infections and diabetic ketoacidosis. Our study extends RCT evidence to older adults with type 2 diabetes.</p

Comparison of CATs, CURB-65 and PMEWS as Triage Tools in Pandemic Influenza Admissions to UK Hospitals: Case Control Analysis Using Retrospective Data

Triage tools have an important role in pandemics to identify those most likely to benefit from higher levels of care. We compared Community Assessment Tools (CATs), the CURB-65 score, and the Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score (PMEWS); to predict higher levels of care (high dependency - Level 2 or intensive care - Level 3) and/or death in patients at or shortly after admission to hospital with A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza. This was a case-control analysis using retrospectively collected data from the FLU-CIN cohort (1040 adults, 480 children) with PCR-confirmed A/H1N1 2009 influenza. Area under receiver operator curves (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values were calculated. CATs best predicted Level 2/3 admissions in both adults [AUROC (95% CI): CATs 0.77 (0.73, 0.80); CURB-65 0.68 (0.64, 0.72); PMEWS 0.68 (0.64, 0.73), p<0.001] and children [AUROC: CATs 0.74 (0.68, 0.80); CURB-65 0.52 (0.46, 0.59); PMEWS 0.69 (0.62, 0.75), p<0.001]. CURB-65 and CATs were similar in predicting death in adults with both performing better than PMEWS; and CATs best predicted death in children. CATs were the best predictor of Level 2/3 care and/or death for both adults and children. CATs are potentially useful triage tools for predicting need for higher levels of care and/or mortality in patients of all ages

An Evaluation of Community Assessment Tools (CATs) in Predicting Use of Clinical Interventions and Severe Outcomes during the A(H1N1)pdm09 Pandemic

During severe influenza pandemics healthcare demand can exceed clinical capacity to provide normal standards of care. Community Assessment Tools (CATs) could provide a framework for triage decisions for hospital referral and admission. CATs have been developed based on evidence that supports the recognition of severe influenza and pneumonia in the community (including resource limited settings) for adults, children and infants, and serious feverish illness in children. CATs use six objective criteria and one subjective criterion, any one or more of which should prompt urgent referral and admission to hospital. A retrospective evaluation of the ability of CATs to predict use of hospital-based interventions and patient outcomes in a pandemic was made using the first recorded routine clinical assessment on or shortly after admission from 1520 unselected patients (800 female, 480 children &lt;16 years) admitted with PCR confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection (the FLU-CIN cohort). Outcome measures included: any use of supplemental oxygen; mechanical ventilation; intravenous antibiotics; length of stay; intensive or high dependency care; death; and “severe outcome” (combined: use of intensive or high dependency care or death during admission). Unadjusted and multivariable analyses were conducted for children (age &lt;16 years) and adults. Each CATs criterion independently identified both use of clinical interventions that would in normal circumstances only be provided in hospital and patient outcome measures. “Peripheral oxygen saturation ?92% breathing air, or being on oxygen” performed well in predicting use of resources and outcomes for both adults and children; supporting routine measurement of peripheral oxygen saturation when assessing severity of disease. In multivariable analyses the single subjective criterion in CATs “other cause for clinical concern” independently predicted death in children and in adults predicted length of stay, mechanical ventilation and “severe outcome”; supporting the role of clinical acumen as an important independent predictor of serious illness

The many faces of hematopoietic stem cell heterogeneity

Not all hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are alike. They differ in their physical characteristics such as cell cycle status and cell surface marker phenotype, they respond to different extrinsic signals, and they have different lineage outputs following transplantation. The growing body of evidence that supports heterogeneity within HSCs, which constitute the most robust cell fraction at the foundation of the adult hematopoietic system, is currently of great interest and raises questions as to why HSC subtypes exist, how they are generated and whether HSC heterogeneity affects leukemogenesis or treatment options. This Review provides a developmental overview of HSC subtypes during embryonic, fetal and adult stages of hematopoiesis and discusses the possible origins and consequences of HSC heterogeneity

Early and empirical high-dose cryoprecipitate for hemorrhage after traumatic injury: The CRYOSTAT-2 randomized clinical trial

Critical bleeding is associated with a high mortality rate in patients with trauma. Hemorrhage is exacerbated by a complex derangement of coagulation, including an acute fibrinogen deficiency. Management is fibrinogen replacement with cryoprecipitate transfusions or fibrinogen concentrate, usually administered relatively late during hemorrhage. To assess whether survival could be improved by administering an early and empirical high dose of cryoprecipitate to all patients with trauma and bleeding that required activation of a major hemorrhage protocol. CRYOSTAT-2 was an interventional, randomized, open-label, parallel-group controlled, international, multicenter study. Patients were enrolled at 26 UK and US major trauma centers from August 2017 to November 2021. Eligible patients were injured adults requiring activation of the hospital's major hemorrhage protocol with evidence of active hemorrhage, systolic blood pressure less than 90 mm Hg at any time, and receiving at least 1 U of a blood component transfusion. Patients were randomly assigned (in a 1:1 ratio) to receive standard care, which was the local major hemorrhage protocol (reviewed for guideline adherence), or cryoprecipitate, in which 3 pools of cryoprecipitate (6-g fibrinogen equivalent) were to be administered in addition to standard care within 90 minutes of randomization and 3 hours of injury. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 28 days in the intention-to-treat population. Among 1604 eligible patients, 799 were randomized to the cryoprecipitate group and 805 to the standard care group. Missing primary outcome data occurred in 73 patients (principally due to withdrawal of consent) and 1531 (95%) were included in the primary analysis population. The median (IQR) age of participants was 39 (26-55) years, 1251 (79%) were men, median (IQR) Injury Severity Score was 29 (18-43), 36% had penetrating injury, and 33% had systolic blood pressure less than 90 mm Hg at hospital arrival. All-cause 28-day mortality in the intention-to-treat population was 26.1% in the standard care group vs 25.3% in the cryoprecipitate group (odds ratio, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.75-1.23]; P = .74). There was no difference in safety outcomes or incidence of thrombotic events in the standard care vs cryoprecipitate group (12.9% vs 12.7%). Among patients with trauma and bleeding who required activation of a major hemorrhage protocol, the addition of early and empirical high-dose cryoprecipitate to standard care did not improve all cause 28-day mortality. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04704869; ISRCTN Identifier: ISRCTN14998314

Combined multiplex panel test results are a poor estimate of disease prevalence without adjustment for test error

Multiplex panel tests identify many individual pathogens at once, using a set of component tests. In some panels the number of components can be large. If the panel is detecting causative pathogens for a single syndrome or disease then we might estimate the burden of that disease by combining the results of the panel, for example determining the prevalence of pneumococcal pneumonia as caused by many individual pneumococcal serotypes. When we are dealing with multiplex test panels with many components, test error in the individual components of a panel, even when present at very low levels, can cause significant overall error. Uncertainty in the sensitivity and specificity of the individual tests, and statistical fluctuations in the numbers of false positives and false negatives, will cause large uncertainty in the combined estimates of disease prevalence. In many cases this can be a source of significant bias. In this paper we develop a mathematical framework to characterise this issue, we determine expressions for the sensitivity and specificity of panel tests. In this we identify a counter-intuitive relationship between panel test sensitivity and disease prevalence that means panel tests become more sensitive as prevalence increases. We present novel statistical methods that adjust for bias and quantify uncertainty in prevalence estimates from panel tests, and use simulations to test these methods. As multiplex testing becomes more commonly used for screening in routine clinical practice, accumulation of test error due to the combination of large numbers of test results needs to be identified and corrected for