Derivation and validation of a risk adjustment model for predicting seven day mortality in emergency medical admissions: mixed prospective and retrospective cohort study

Objectives To derive and validate a risk adjustment model for predicting seven day mortality in emergency medical admissions, to test the value of including physiology and blood parameters, and to explore the constancy of the risk associated with each model variable across a range of settings

Prioritising outcomes measures for ambulance service care: a three stage consensus study

Background Historically ambulance care quality and performance has been measured by response times rather than clinical need or effectiveness. This limits the evidence about the effectiveness of the care the ambulance service provides. The Pre-hospital Outcomes for Evidence Based Evaluation (PhOEBE) project is a 5 year research programme which aims to develop new ways of measuring the performance, quality and impact of ambulance service care that better reflect the care provided. Methods We held a 1 day consensus event with a multi-stakeholder group to identify and prioritise which features of ambulance service care are important and worth further development as measures of performance and quality. The day comprised a series of small group discussions to share opinions about measures identified from literature reviews and the opportunity for participants to add their ideas, together with a live vote to help identify and rank measures for further development. Time measures were considered in a separate online questionnaire. The results from the online questionnaire and Consensus Event were fed into a Delphi study. Results 43 participants attended the consensus event, representing a range of participant groups including patient and public, ambulance services, commissioners and policy groups. The top 5 outcome measures prioritised by the participants were: Accuracy of dispatch decisions; Completeness and accuracy of patient records; Accuracy of call taker identification of different conditions or needs (e.g. heart attack, stroke, suitable for nurse advice); Pain measurement and symptom relief; Patient experience. From the online survey of time measures the top 5 measures were Time of call to time of arrival at scene; Time symptoms start (e.g. chest pain) to time of treatment with balloon for heart attack; Time taken to answer the emergency call; Total time spent on scene; Incident or start of symptoms to calling the ambulance service Conclusions Using consensus methods we have identified a set of outcome measures that can potentially be used to measure the performance and quality of ambulance service care. Some of these measures fit with existing government targets, such as response times and time taken to answer the emergency call. However most measures are new ways of measuring ambulance service care and the importance of these measures and methods of measurement will be assessed as part of an on-going Delphi study

A comprehensive evaluation of colonic mucosal isolates of Sutterella wadsworthensis from inflammatory bowel disease

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Assessing risks of polypharmacy involving medications with anticholinergic properties

PURPOSE Anticholinergic burden (ACB), the cumulative effect of anticholinergic medications, is associated with adverse outcomes in older people but is less studied in middle-aged populations. Numerous scales exist to quantify ACB. The aims of this study were to quantify ACB in a large cohort using the 10 most common anticholinergic scales, to assess the association of each scale with adverse outcomes, and to assess overlap in populations identified by each scale. METHODS We performed a longitudinal analysis of the UK Biobank community cohort (502,538 participants, baseline age: 37-73 years, median years of follow-up: 6.2). The ACB was calculated at baseline using 10 scales. Baseline data were linked to national mortality register records and hospital episode statistics. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE). Secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, MACE, hospital admission for fall/fracture, and hospital admission with dementia/delirium. Cox proportional hazards models (hazard ratio [HR], 95% CI) quantified associations between ACB scales and outcomes adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol use, physical activity, and morbidity count. RESULTS Anticholinergic medication use varied from 8% to 17.6% depending on the scale used. For the primary outcome, ACB was significantly associated with all-cause mortality/MACE for each scale. The Anticholinergic Drug Scale was most strongly associated with mortality/MACE (HR = 1.12; 95% CI, 1.11-1.14 per 1-point increase in score). The ACB was significantly associated with all secondary outcomes. The Anticholinergic Effect on Cognition scale was most strongly associated with dementia/delirium (HR = 1.45; 95% CI, 1.3-1.61 per 1-point increase). CONCLUSIONS The ACB was associated with adverse outcomes in a middle- to older-aged population. Populations identified and effect size differed between scales. Scale choice influenced the population identified as potentially requiring reduction in ACB in clinical practice or intervention trials

Prediction modelling for trauma using comorbidity and 'true' 30-day outcome

BACKGROUND: Prediction models for trauma outcome routinely control for age but there is uncertainty about the need to control for comorbidity and whether the two interact. This paper describes recent revisions to the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) risk adjustment model designed to take account of age and comorbidities. In addition linkage between TARN and the Office of National Statistics (ONS) database allows patient's outcome to be accurately identified up to 30 days after injury. Outcome at discharge within 30 days was previously used. METHODS: Prospectively collected data between 2010 and 2013 from the TARN database were analysed. The data for modelling consisted of 129 786 hospital trauma admissions. Three models were compared using the area under the receiver operating curve (AuROC) for assessing the ability of the models to predict outcome, the Akaike information criteria to measure the quality between models and test for goodness-of-fit and calibration. Model 1 is the current TARN model, Model 2 is Model 1 augmented by a modified Charlson comorbidity index and Model 3 is Model 2 with ONS data on 30 day outcome. RESULTS: The values of the AuROC curve for Model 1 were 0.896 (95% CI 0.893 to 0.899), for Model 2 were 0.904 (0.900 to 0.907) and for Model 3 0.897 (0.896 to 0.902). No significant interaction was found between age and comorbidity in Model 2 or in Model 3. CONCLUSIONS: The new model includes comorbidity and this has improved outcome prediction. There was no interaction between age and comorbidity, suggesting that both independently increase vulnerability to mortality after injury

The microaerophilic microbiota of de-novo paediatric inflammatory bowel disease: the BISCUIT study

<p>Introduction: Children presenting for the first time with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) offer a unique opportunity to study aetiological agents before the confounders of treatment. Microaerophilic bacteria can exploit the ecological niche of the intestinal epithelium; Helicobacter and Campylobacter are previously implicated in IBD pathogenesis. We set out to study these and other microaerophilic bacteria in de-novo paediatric IBD.</p> <p>Patients and Methods: 100 children undergoing colonoscopy were recruited including 44 treatment naïve de-novo IBD patients and 42 with normal colons. Colonic biopsies were subjected to microaerophilic culture with Gram-negative isolates then identified by sequencing. Biopsies were also PCR screened for the specific microaerophilic bacterial groups: Helicobacteraceae, Campylobacteraceae and Sutterella wadsworthensis.</p> <p>Results: 129 Gram-negative microaerophilic bacterial isolates were identified from 10 genera. The most frequently cultured was S. wadsworthensis (32 distinct isolates). Unusual Campylobacter were isolated from 8 subjects (including 3 C. concisus, 1 C. curvus, 1 C. lari, 1 C. rectus, 3 C. showae). No Helicobacter were cultured. When comparing IBD vs. normal colon control by PCR the prevalence figures were not significantly different (Helicobacter 11% vs. 12%, p = 1.00; Campylobacter 75% vs. 76%, p = 1.00; S. wadsworthensis 82% vs. 71%, p = 0.312).</p> <p>Conclusions: This study offers a comprehensive overview of the microaerophilic microbiota of the paediatric colon including at IBD onset. Campylobacter appear to be surprisingly common, are not more strongly associated with IBD and can be isolated from around 8% of paediatric colonic biopsies. S. wadsworthensis appears to be a common commensal. Helicobacter species are relatively rare in the paediatric colon.</p&gt

Testing the magnetar scenario for superluminous supernovae with circular polarimetry

Superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) are at least ∼5 times more luminous than common supernovae (SNe). Especially hydrogen-poor SLSN-I are difficult to explain with conventional powering mechanisms. One possible scenario that might explain such luminosities is that SLSNe-I are powered by an internal engine, such as a magnetar or an accreting black hole. Strong magnetic fields or collimated jets can circularly polarize light. In this work, we measured circular polarization of two SLSNe-I with the FOcal Reducer and low dispersion Spectrograph (FORS2) mounted at the ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT). PS17bek, a fast evolving SLSN-I, was observed around peak, while OGLE16dmu, a slowly evolving SLSN-I, was observed 100 days after maximum. Neither SLSN shows evidence of circularly polarized light, however, these non-detections do not rule out the magnetar scenario as the powering engine for SLSNe-I. We calculate the strength of the magnetic field and the expected circular polarization as a function of distance from the magnetar, which decreases very fast. Additionally, we observed no significant linear polarization for PS17bek at four epochs, suggesting that the photosphere near peak is close to spherical symmetry

Variation in centre-specific survival in patients starting renal replacement therapy in England is explained by enhanced comorbidity information from hospitalization data

Background Unadjusted survival on renal replacement therapy (RRT) varies widely from centre to centre in England. Until now, missing data on case mix have made it impossible to determine whether this variation reflects genuine differences in the quality of care. Data linkage has the capacity to reduce missing data. Methods Modelling of survival using Cox proportional hazards of data returned to the UK Renal Registry on patients starting RRT for established renal failure in England. Data on ethnicity, socioeconomic status and comorbidity were obtained by linkage to the Hospital Episode Statistics database, using data from hospitalizations prior to starting RRT. Results Patients with missing data were reduced from 61 to 4%. The prevalence of comorbid conditions was remarkably similar across centres. When centre-specific survival was compared after adjustment solely for age, survival was below the 95% limit for 6 of 46 centres. The addition of variables into the multivariable model altered the number of centres that appeared to be ‘outliers’ with worse than expected survival as follows: ethnic origin four outliers, socioeconomic status eight outliers and year of the start of RRT four outliers. The addition of a combination of 16 comorbid conditions present at the start of RRT reduced the number of centres with worse than expected survival to one. Conclusions Linked data between a national registry and hospital admission dramatically reduced missing data, and allowed us to show that nearly all the variation between English renal centres in 3-year survival on RRT was explained by demographic factors and by comorbidity

Impact of NHS 111 online on the NHS 111 telephone service and urgent care system: a mixed-methods study

Background: The NHS emergency and urgent care system is under pressure as demand for services increases each year. NHS 111 is a telephone triage service designed to provide advice and signposting to appropriate services for people with urgent health-care problems. A new service, NHS 111 Online, has been introduced across England as a digital alternative that can be accessed using a website or a smartphone application. The effects and usefulness of this service are unknown. Objectives: To explore the impact of NHS 111 Online on the related telephone service and urgent care system activity and the experiences of people who use those services. Design and methods: A mixed-methods design of five related work packages comprising an evidence review; a quantitative before-and-after time series analysis of changes in call activity (18/38 sites); a descriptive comparison of telephone and online services with qualitative survey (telephone, n = 795; online, n = 3728) and interview (32 participants) studies of service users; a qualitative interview study (16 participants) of staff; and a cost–consequences analysis. Results: The online service had little impact on the number of triaged calls to the NHS 111 telephone service. For every 1000 online contacts, triaged telephone calls increased by 1.3% (1.013, 95% confidence interval 0.996 to 1.029; p = 0.127). Recommendations to attend emergency and urgent care services increased between 6.7% and 4.2%. NHS 111 Online users were less satisfied than users of the telephone service (50% vs. 71%; p < 0.001), and less likely to recommend to others (57% vs. 69%; p < 0.001) and to report full compliance with the advice given (67.5% vs. 88%; p < 0.001). Online users were less likely to report contacting emergency services and more likely to report not making any contact with a health service (31% vs. 16%; p < 0.001) within 7 days of contact. Thirty-five per cent of online users reported that they did not want to use the telephone service, whereas others preferred its convenience and speed. NHS 111 telephone staff reported no discernible increase or decrease in their workload during the first year of operation of NHS 111 Online. If online and telephone services operate in parallel, then the annual costs will be higher unless ≥ 38% of telephone contacts move to online contacts. Conclusions: There is some evidence that the new service has the potential to create new demand. The service has expanded significantly, so it is important to find ways of promoting the right balance in numbers of people who use the online service instead of the telephone service if it is to be effective. There is a clear need and preference by some people for an online service. Better information about when to use this service and improvements to questioning may encourage more uptake. Limitations: The lack of control arm means that impact could have been an effect of other factors. This work took place during the early implementation phase, so findings may change as the service expands. Future work: Further development of the online triage process to make it more ‘user friendly’ and to enable users to trust the advice given online could improve use and increase satisfaction. Better understanding of the characteristics of the telephone and online populations could help identify who is most likely to benefit and could improve information about when to use the service. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN51801112. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 9, No. 21. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information