Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries

Looma Lesson Planner

Looma Lesson Planner is a web application that allows its users, experienced educators, to select, organize, and present existing classroom materials and educational content in the format of a custom-made lesson plan. Looma, an all-in-one computer developed by non-profit organization VillageTech Solutions, is designed for school teachers in rural Nepal, India. It provides them with basic access to textbooks, activities, and digital media that may be relevant in meeting Nepal\u27s curriculum requirements. However, Looma did not initially include a simple interface for teachers to connect many different forms of content together into cohesive, custom lesson plans. Our application presents and organizes Looma\u27s existing content in an accessible, user-friendly manner, and allows the teacher to create reusable lesson plans from this content. The application utilizes HTML5, CSS3, PHP, MongoDB, and JavaScript to create a simple, user-friendly, WYSIWYG design. The application\u27s goal is to remove a key technical barrier that Looma currently poses on teachers, and to create a seamless classroom experience for the teachers and their students. Going forward, we plan on working with VillageTech Solutions to integrate our application with Looma\u27s operating system. Once we have completed this task, VillageTech Solutions will use Looma and our web application to conduct user testing with teachers in Nepal. We are also finalizing both a technical guide and a user manual for VillageTech Solutions that will outline our code structure and illustrate how to use the web application, respectively

Linking remote-sensing estimates of land cover and census statistics on land use to produce maps of land use of the conterminous United States

Human use of the land has a large effect on the structure of terrestrial ecosystems and the dynamics of biogeochemical cycles. For this reason, terrestrial ecosystem and biogeochemistry models require moderate resolution (e.g., ≤0.5°) information on land use in order to make realistic predictions. Few such data sets currently exist. To create a land use data set of sufficient resolution, we developed models relating land cover data derived from optical remote sensing and a census database on land use for the conterminous United States. The land cover product used was from the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme DISCover global product, derived from 1 km advanced very high resolution radiometer imagery, with 16 land cover classes. Land use data at state-level resolution came from the U.S. Department of Agriculture\u27s Major Land Uses database, aggregated into four general land use categories: Cropland, Pasture/Range, Forest, and Other. We developed and applied models relating these data sets to generate maps of land use in 1992 for the conterminous United States at 0.5° spatial resolution

Dynamically generated patterns in dense suspensions of active filaments

We use Langevin dynamics simulations to study dynamical behaviour of a dense planar layer of active semi-flexible filaments. Using the strength of active force and the thermal persistence length as parameters, we map a detailed phase diagram and identify several non-equilibrium phases in this system. In addition to a slowly flowing melt phase, we observe that for sufficiently high activity, collective flow accompanied by signatures of local polar and nematic order appears in the system. This state is also characterised by strong density fluctuations. Furthermore, we identify an activity-driven cross-over from this state of coherently flowing bundles of filaments to a phase with no global flow, formed by individual filaments coiled into rotating spirals. This suggests a mechanism where the system responds to activity by changing the shape of active agents, an effect with no analogue in systems of active particles without internal degrees of freedom.Comment: extended and updated versio

Global trends in visibility: implications for dust sources

International audienceThere is a large uncertainty in the relative roles of human land use, climate change and carbon dioxide fertilization in changing desert dust source strength over the past 100 years, and the overall sign of human impacts on dust is not known. We used visibility data from meteorological stations in dusty regions to assess the anthropogenic impact on long term trends in desert dust emissions. Visibility data are available at thousands of stations globally from 1900 to the present, but we focused on 359 stations with more than 30 years of data in regions where mineral aerosols play a dominant role in visibility observations. We evaluated the 1974 to 2003 time period because most of these stations have reliable records only during this time. We first evaluated the visibility data against AERONET aerosol optical depth data, and found that only in dusty regions are the two moderately correlated. Correlation coefficients between visibility derived variables and AERONET optical depths indicate a moderate correlation (~0.47), consistent with capturing about 20% of the variability in optical depths. Two visibility derived variables appear to compare the best with AERONET observations: the fraction of observations with visibility less than 5 km (VIS5) and the surface extinction (EXT). Regional trends show that in many dusty places, VIS5 and EXT are statistically significantly correlated with the palmer drought severity index (based on precipitation and temperature) or surface wind speeds, consistent with dust temporal variability being largely driven by meteorology. This is especially true for North African and Chinese dust sources, but less true in the Middle East, Australia or South America, where there are not consistent patterns in the correlations. Climate indices such as El Nino or the North Atlantic Oscillation are not correlated with visibility derived variables in this analysis. There are few stations where visibility measures are correlated with cultivation or grazing estimates on a temporal basis, although this may be a function of the very coarse temporal resolution of the land use datasets. On the other hand, spatial analysis of the visibility data suggests that natural topographic lows are not correlated with visibility, but land use is correlated at a moderate level. This analysis is consistent with land use being important in some regions, but meteorology driving interannual variability during 1974?2003

4π4\pi periodic Andreev bound states in a Dirac semimetal

Electrons in a Dirac semimetals possess linear dispersion in all three spatial dimensions, and form part of a developing platform of novel quantum materials. Bi$_{1-x}$Sb$_x$ supports a three-dimensional Dirac cone at the Sb-induced band inversion point. Nanoscale phase-sensitive junction technology is used to induce superconductivity in this Dirac semimetal. Radio frequency irradiation experiments reveal a significant contribution of 4$\pi$-periodic Andreev bound states to the supercurrent in Nb-Bi$_{0.97}$Sb$_{0.03}$-Nb Josephson junctions. The conditions for a substantial $4\pi$ contribution to the supercurrent are favourable because of the Dirac cone's topological protection against backscattering, providing very broad transmission resonances. The large g-factor of the Zeeman effect from a magnetic field applied in the plane of the junction, allows tuning of the Josephson junctions from 0 to $\pi$ regimes.Comment: Supplementary information is include

Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth System and Integrated Assessment Modelling

This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysical and biogeochemical interactions of land-cover change with the climate system. Both the Earth System and the Integrated Assessment modeling communities recognize the importance of an accurate representation of land use and land-cover change to understand and quantify the interactions and feedbacks with the climate and socio-economic systems, respectively. To date, cooperation between these communities has been limited. Based on common interests, this work discusses research priorities in representing land use and land-cover change for improved collaboration across modelling, observing and measurement communities. Major research topics in land use and land-cover change are those that help us better understand (1) the interaction of land use and land cover with the climate system (e.g. carbon cycle feedbacks), (2) the provision of goods and ecosystem services by terrestrial (natural and anthropogenic) land-cover types (e.g. food production), (3) land use and management decisions and (4) opportunities and limitations for managing climate change (for both mitigation and adaptation strategies

The effects of CO2, climate and land-use on terrestrial carbon balance, 1920-1992: An analysis with four process-based ecosystem models

The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and O2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system

Urban agriculture: a global analysis of the space constraint to meet urban vegetable demand

Urban agriculture (UA) has been drawing a lot of attention recently for several reasons: the majority of the world population has shifted from living in rural to urban areas; the environmental impact of agriculture is a matter of rising concern; and food insecurity, especially the accessibility of food, remains a major challenge. UA has often been proposed as a solution to some of these issues, for example by producing food in places where population density is highest, reducing transportation costs, connecting people directly to food systems and using urban areas efficiently. However, to date no study has examined how much food could actually be produced in urban areas at the global scale. Here we use a simple approach, based on different global-scale datasets, to assess to what extent UA is constrained by the existing amount of urban space. Our results suggest that UA would require roughly one third of the total global urban area to meet the global vegetable consumption of urban dwellers. This estimate does not consider how much urban area may actually be suitable and available for UA, which likely varies substantially around the world and according to the type of UA performed. Further, this global average value masks variations of more than two orders of magnitude among individual countries. The variations in the space required across countries derive mostly from variations in urban population density, and much less from variations in yields or per capita consumption. Overall, the space required is regrettably the highest where UA is most needed, i.e., in more food insecure countries. We also show that smaller urban clusters (i.e., <100 km2 each) together represent about two thirds of the global urban extent; thus UA discourse and policies should not focus on large cities exclusively, but should also target smaller urban areas that offer the greatest potential in terms of physical space

In-situ spectroscopy of intrinsic Bi2Te3 topological insulator thin films and impact of extrinsic defects

Combined in-situ x-ray photoemission spectroscopy, scanning tunnelling spectroscopy and angle resolved photoemission spectroscopy of molecular beam epitaxy grown Bi2Te3 on lattice mismatched substrates reveal high quality stoichiometric thin films with topological surface states without a contribution from the bulk bands at the Fermi energy. The absence of bulk states at the Fermi energy is achieved without counter doping. We observe that the surface morphology and electronic band structure of Bi2Te3 are not affected by in-vacuo storage and exposure to oxygen, whereas major changes are observed when exposed to ambient conditions. These films help define a pathway towards intrinsic topological devices.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure