Global surface-ocean pCO2 and sea–air CO2 flux variability from an observation-driven ocean mixed-layer scheme

A temporally and spatially resolved estimate of the global surface-ocean CO₂ partial pressure field and the sea–air CO₂ flux is presented, obtained by fitting a simple data-driven diagnostic model of ocean mixed-layer biogeochemistry to surface-ocean CO₂ partial pressure data from the SOCAT v1.5 database. Results include seasonal, interannual, and short-term (daily) variations. In most regions, estimated seasonality is well constrained from the data, and compares well to the widely used monthly climatology by Takahashi et al. (2009). Comparison to independent data tentatively supports the slightly higher seasonal variations in our estimates in some areas. We also fitted the diagnostic model to atmospheric CO₂ data. The results of this are less robust, but in those areas where atmospheric signals are not strongly influenced by land flux variability, their seasonality is nevertheless consistent with the results based on surface-ocean data. From a comparison with an independent seasonal climatology of surface-ocean nutrient concentration, the diagnostic model is shown to capture relevant surface-ocean biogeochemical processes reasonably well. Estimated interannual variations will be presented and discussed in a companion paper

The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

Observed Reductions in Schistosoma mansoni Transmission from Large-Scale Administration of Praziquantel in Uganda: A Mathematical Modelling Study

To date schistosomiasis control programmes based on chemotherapy have largely aimed at controlling morbidity in treated individuals rather than at suppressing transmission. In this study, a mathematical modelling approach was used to estimate reductions in the rate of Schistosoma mansoni reinfection following annual mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel in Uganda over four years (2003-2006). In doing this we aim to elucidate the benefits of MDA in reducing community transmission.Age-structured models were fitted to a longitudinal cohort followed up across successive rounds of annual treatment for four years (Baseline: 2003, TREATMENT: 2004-2006; n = 1,764). Instead of modelling contamination, infection and immunity processes separately, these functions were combined in order to estimate a composite force of infection (FOI), i.e., the rate of parasite acquisition by hosts.MDA achieved substantial and statistically significant reductions in the FOI following one round of treatment in areas of low baseline infection intensity, and following two rounds in areas with high and medium intensities. In all areas, the FOI remained suppressed following a third round of treatment.This study represents one of the first attempts to monitor reductions in the FOI within a large-scale MDA schistosomiasis morbidity control programme in sub-Saharan Africa. The results indicate that the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative, as a model for other MDA programmes, is likely exerting a significant ancillary impact on reducing transmission within the community, and may provide health benefits to those who do not receive treatment. The results obtained will have implications for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control programmes and the design of monitoring and evaluation approaches in general

Does owning a pet protect older people against loneliness?

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Pet ownership is thought to make a positive contribution to health, health behaviours and the general well-being of older people. More specifically pet ownership is often proposed as a solution to the problem of loneliness in later life and specific 'pet based' interventions have been developed to combat loneliness. However the evidence to support this relationship is slim and it is assumed that pet ownership is a protection against loneliness rather than a response to loneliness. The aim of this paper is to examine the association between pet ownership and loneliness by exploring if pet ownership is a response to, or protection against, loneliness using Waves 0-5 from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA)

Reservoir stress path and induced seismic anisotropy: Results from linking coupled fluid-flow/geomechanical simulation with seismic modelling

We present a workflow linking coupled fluid-flow and geomechanical simulation with seismic modelling to predict seismic anisotropy induced by nonhydrostatic stress changes. We generate seismic models from coupled simulations to examine the relationship between reservoir geometry, stress path and seismic anisotropy. The results indicate that geometry influences the evolution of stress, which leads to stress-induced seismic anisotropy. Although stress anisotropy is high for the small reservoir, the effect of stress arching and the ability of the side-burden to support the excess load limit the overall change in effective stress and hence seismic anisotropy. For the extensive reservoir, stress anisotropy and induced seismic anisotropy are high. The extensive and elongate reservoirs experience significant compaction, where the inefficiency of the developed stress arching in the side-burden cannot support the excess load. The elongate reservoir displays significant stress asymmetry, with seismic anisotropy developing predominantly along the long-edge of the reservoir. We show that the link between stress path parameters and seismic anisotropy is complex, where the anisotropic symmetry is controlled not only by model geometry but also the nonlinear rock physics model used. Nevertheless, a workflow has been developed to model seismic anisotropy induced by non-hydrostatic stress changes, allowing field observations of anisotropy to be linked with geomechanical models

Mechanisms of Maximum Information Preservation in the Drosophila Antennal Lobe

We examined the presence of maximum information preservation, which may be a fundamental principle of information transmission in all sensory modalities, in the Drosophila antennal lobe using an experimentally grounded network model and physiological data. Recent studies have shown a nonlinear firing rate transformation between olfactory receptor neurons (ORNs) and second-order projection neurons (PNs). As a result, PNs can use their dynamic range more uniformly than ORNs in response to a diverse set of odors. Although this firing rate transformation is thought to assist the decoder in discriminating between odors, there are no comprehensive, quantitatively supported studies examining this notion. Therefore, we quantitatively investigated the efficiency of this firing rate transformation from the viewpoint of information preservation by computing the mutual information between odor stimuli and PN responses in our network model. In the Drosophila olfactory system, all ORNs and PNs are divided into unique functional processing units called glomeruli. The nonlinear transformation between ORNs and PNs is formed by intraglomerular transformation and interglomerular interaction through local neurons (LNs). By exploring possible nonlinear transformations produced by these two factors in our network model, we found that mutual information is maximized when a weak ORN input is preferentially amplified within a glomerulus and the net LN input to each glomerulus is inhibitory. It is noteworthy that this is the very combination observed experimentally. Furthermore, the shape of the resultant nonlinear transformation is similar to that observed experimentally. These results imply that information related to odor stimuli is almost maximally preserved in the Drosophila olfactory circuit. We also discuss how intraglomerular transformation and interglomerular inhibition combine to maximize mutual information

Global response to pandemic flu: more research needed on a critical front

If and when sustained human-to-human transmission of H5N1 becomes a reality, the world will no longer be dealing with sporadic avian flu borne along migratory flight paths of birds, but aviation flu – winged at subsonic speed along commercial air conduits to every corner of planet Earth. Given that air transportation is the one feature that most differentiates present day transmission scenarios from those in 1918, our present inability to prevent spread of influenza by international air travel, as reckoned by the World Health Organization, constitutes a major weakness in the current global preparedness plan against pandemic flu. Despite the lessons of SARS, it is surprising that aviation-related health policy options have not been more rigorously evaluated, or scientific research aimed at strengthening public health measures on the air transportation front, more energetically pursued

Mix of methods is needed to identify adverse events in general practice: A prospective observational study

Contains fulltext : 69425.pdf ( ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: The validity and usefulness of incident reporting and other methods for identifying adverse events remains unclear. This study aimed to compare five methods in general practice. METHODS: In a prospective observational study, with five general practitioners, five methods were applied and compared. The five methods were physician reported adverse events, pharmacist reported adverse events, patients' experiences of adverse events, assessment of a random sample of medical records, and assessment of all deceased patients. RESULTS: A total of 68 events were identified using these methods. The patient survey accounted for the highest number of events and the pharmacist reports for the lowest number. No overlap between the methods was detected. The patient survey accounted for the highest number of events and the pharmacist reports for the lowest number. CONCLUSION: A mix of methods is needed to identify adverse events in general practice

Modeling Peripheral Olfactory Coding in Drosophila Larvae

The Drosophila larva possesses just 21 unique and identifiable pairs of olfactory sensory neurons (OSNs), enabling investigation of the contribution of individual OSN classes to the peripheral olfactory code. We combined electrophysiological and computational modeling to explore the nature of the peripheral olfactory code in situ. We recorded firing responses of 19/21 OSNs to a panel of 19 odors. This was achieved by creating larvae expressing just one functioning class of odorant receptor, and hence OSN. Odor response profiles of each OSN class were highly specific and unique. However many OSN-odor pairs yielded variable responses, some of which were statistically indistinguishable from background activity. We used these electrophysiological data, incorporating both responses and spontaneous firing activity, to develop a Bayesian decoding model of olfactory processing. The model was able to accurately predict odor identity from raw OSN responses; prediction accuracy ranged from 12%–77% (mean for all odors 45.2%) but was always significantly above chance (5.6%). However, there was no correlation between prediction accuracy for a given odor and the strength of responses of wild-type larvae to the same odor in a behavioral assay. We also used the model to predict the ability of the code to discriminate between pairs of odors. Some of these predictions were supported in a behavioral discrimination (masking) assay but others were not. We conclude that our model of the peripheral code represents basic features of odor detection and discrimination, yielding insights into the information available to higher processing structures in the brain