A probabilistic paradigm for the parametric insurance of natural hazards.

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.There is a pressing need for simple and reliable risk transfer mechanisms that can pay out quickly after natural disasters without delays caused by loss estimation, and the need for long historical claims records. One such approach, known as parametric insurance, pays out when a key hazard variable exceeds a predetermined threshold. However, this approach to catastrophe risk, based on making deterministic binary predictions of loss occurrence, is susceptible to basis risk (mismatch between payouts and realized losses). A more defensible approach is to issue probabilistic predictions of loss occurrence, which then allows uncertainty to be properly quantified, communicated, and evaluated. This study proposes a generic probabilistic framework for parametric trigger modeling based on logistic regression, and idealized modeling of potential damage given knowledge of a hazard variable. We also propose various novel methods for evaluating the quality and utility of such predictions as well as more traditional trigger indices. The methodology is demonstrated by application to flood-related disasters in Jamaica from 1998 to 2016 using gridded precipitation data as the hazard variable. A hydrologically motivated transformation is proposed for calculating potential damage from daily rainfall data. Despite the simplicity of the approach, the model has substantial skill at predicting the probability of occurrence of loss days as demonstrated by traditional goodness-of-fit measures (i.e., pseudo-R2 of 0.55) as well as probabilistic verification diagnostics such as receiver operating characteristics. Using conceptual models of decisionmaker expenses, we also demonstrate that the system can provide considerable utility to involved parties, e.g., insured parties, insurers, and risk managers.Benjamin Youngman’s research was supportedby the Willis Research Network

Male reproductive health and environmental xenoestrogens

EHP is a publication of the U.S. government. Publication of EHP lies in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. Research articles from EHP may be used freely; however, articles from the News section of EHP may contain photographs or figures copyrighted by other commercial organizations and individuals that may not be used without obtaining prior approval from both the EHP editors and the holder of the copyright. Use of any materials published in EHP should be acknowledged (for example, "Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives") and a reference provided for the article from which the material was reproduced.Male reproductive health has deteriorated in many countries during the last few decades. In the 1990s, declining semen quality has been reported from Belgium, Denmark, France, and Great Britain. The incidence of testicular cancer has increased during the same time incidences of hypospadias and cryptorchidism also appear to be increasing. Similar reproductive problems occur in many wildlife species. There are marked geographic differences in the prevalence of male reproductive disorders. While the reasons for these differences are currently unknown, both clinical and laboratory research suggest that the adverse changes may be inter-related and have a common origin in fetal life or childhood. Exposure of the male fetus to supranormal levels of estrogens, such as diethlylstilbestrol, can result in the above-mentioned reproductive defects. The growing number of reports demonstrating that common environmental contaminants and natural factors possess estrogenic activity presents the working hypothesis that the adverse trends in male reproductive health may be, at least in part, associated with exposure to estrogenic or other hormonally active (e.g., antiandrogenic) environmental chemicals during fetal and childhood development. An extensive research program is needed to understand the extent of the problem, its underlying etiology, and the development of a strategy for prevention and intervention.Supported by EU Contract BMH4-CT96-0314

The emergence of waves in random discrete systems

Essential criteria for the emergence of wave-like manifestations occurring in an entirely discrete system are identified using a simple model for the movement of particles through a network. The dynamics are entirely stochastic and memoryless involving a birth-death-migration process. The requirements are that the network should have at least three nodes, that migration should have a directional bias, and that the particle dynamics have a non-local dependence. Well defined bifurcations mark transitions between amorphous, wave-like and collapsed states with an intermittent regime between the latter two

ANKRd44 gene silencing: A putative role in trastuzumab resistance in HER2-like breast cancer

Trastuzumab is an effective therapeutic treatment for Her2-like breast cancer; despite this most of these tumors develop resistance to therapy due to specific gene mutations or alterations in gene expression. Understanding the mechanisms of resistance to Trastuzumab could be a useful tool in order to identify combinations of drugs that elude resistance and allow a better response for the treated patients. Twelve primary biopsies of Her2+/hormone receptor negative (ER-/PgR-) breast cancer patients were selected based on the specific response to neoadjuvant therapy with Trastuzumab and their whole exome was sequenced leading to the identification of 18 informative gene mutations that discriminate patients selectively based on response to treatment. Among these genes, we focused on the study of the ANKRD44 gene to understand its role in the mechanism of resistance to Trastuzumab. The ANKRD44 gene was silenced in Her2-like breast cancer cell line (BT474), obtaining a partially Trastuzumab-resistant breast cancer cell line that constitutively activates the NF-kb protein via the TAK1/AKT pathway. Following this activation an increase in the level of glycolysis in resistant cells is promoted, also confirmed by the up-regulation of the LDHB protein and by an increased TROP2 protein expression, found generally associated with aggressive tumors. These results allow us to consider the ANKRD44 gene as a potential gene involved in Trastuzumab resistance

ANKRd44 gene silencing: a putative role in trastuzumab resistance in HER2-like breast cancer

Trastuzumab is an effective therapeutic treatment for Her2-like breast cancer; despite this most of these tumors develop resistance to therapy due to specific gene mutations or alterations in gene expression. Understanding the mechanisms of resistance to Trastuzumab could be a useful tool in order to identify combinations of drugs that elude resistance and allow a better response for the treated patients. Twelve primary biopsies of Her2+/hormone receptor negative (ER-/PgR-) breast cancer patients were selected based on the specific response to neoadjuvant therapy with Trastuzumab and their whole exome was sequenced leading to the identification of 18 informative gene mutations that discriminate patients selectively based on response to treatment. Among these genes, we focused on the study of the ANKRD44 gene to understand its role in the mechanism of resistance to Trastuzumab. The ANKRD44 gene was silenced in Her2-like breast cancer cell line (BT474), obtaining a partially Trastuzumab-resistant breast cancer cell line that constitutively activates the NF-kb protein via the TAK1/AKT pathway. Following this activation an increase in the level of glycolysis in resistant cells is promoted, also confirmed by the up-regulation of the LDHB protein and by an increased TROP2 protein expression, found generally associated with aggressive tumors. These results allow us to consider the ANKRD44 gene as a potential gene involved in Trastuzumab resistance

Development of the Liverpool Adverse Drug Reaction Avoidability Assessment Tool

Aim To develop and test a new tool to assess the avoidability of adverse drug reactions that is suitable for use in paediatrics but which is also applicable to a variety of other settings. Methods The study involved multiple phases. Preliminary work involved using the Hallas scale and a modification of the existing Hallas scale, to assess two different sets of adverse drug reaction (ADR) case reports. Phase 1 defined, modified and refined a new tool using multidisciplinary teams. Phase 2 involved the assessment of 50 ADR case reports from a prospective study of paediatric inpatients by individual assessors. Phase 3 compared assessments with the new tool for individuals and groups in comparison to the ‘gold standard’ (the avoidability outcome set by a panel of senior investigators: an experienced clinical pharmacologist, paediatrician and pharmacist). Main Outcome Measures Inter-rater reliability (IRR), measure of disagreement and utilization of avoidability categories. Results Preliminary work—Pilot phase: results for the original Hallas cases were fair and pairwise kappa scores ranged from 0.21 to 0.36. Results for the modified Hallas cases were poor, pairwise kappa scores ranged from 0.06 to 0.16. Phase 1: on initial use of the new tool, agreement between the two multidisciplinary groups was found on 13/20 cases with a kappa score of 0.29 (95% CI -0.04 to 0.62). Phase 2: the assessment of 50 ADR case reports by six individual reviewers yielded pairwise kappa scores ranging from poor to good 0.12 to 0.75 and percentage exact agreement (%EA) ranged from 52–90%. Phase 3: Percentage exact agreement ranged from 35–70%. Overall, individuals had better agreement with the ‘gold standard’. Conclusion Avoidability assessment is feasible but needs careful attention to methods. The Liverpool ADR avoidability assessment tool showed mixed IRR. We have developed and validated a method for assessing the avoidability of ADRs that is transparent, more objective than previous methods and that can be used by individuals or groups

Highly Selective End-Tagged Antimicrobial Peptides Derived from PRELP

Background: Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are receiving increasing attention due to resistance development against conventional antibiotics. Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus are two major pathogens involved in an array of infections such as ocular infections, cystic fibrosis, wound and post-surgery infections, and sepsis. The goal of the study was to design novel AMPs against these pathogens. Methodology and Principal Findings: Antibacterial activity was determined by radial diffusion, viable count, and minimal inhibitory concentration assays, while toxicity was evaluated by hemolysis and effects on human epithelial cells. Liposome and fluorescence studies provided mechanistic information. Protease sensitivity was evaluated after subjection to human leukocyte elastase, staphylococcal aureolysin and V8 proteinase, as well as P. aeruginosa elastase. Highly active peptides were evaluated in ex vivo skin infection models. C-terminal end-tagging by W and F amino acid residues increased antimicrobial potency of the peptide sequences GRRPRPRPRP and RRPRPRPRP, derived from proline arginine-rich and leucine-rich repeat protein (PRELP). The optimized peptides were antimicrobial against a range of Gram-positive S. aureus and Gram-negative P. aeruginosa clinical isolates, also in the presence of human plasma and blood. Simultaneously, they showed low toxicity against mammalian cells. Particularly W-tagged peptides displayed stability against P. aeruginosa elastase, and S. aureus V8 proteinase and aureolysin, and the peptide RRPRPRPRPWWWW-NH2 was effective against various "superbugs'' including vancomycin-resistant enterococci, multi-drug resistant P. aeruginosa, and methicillin-resistant S. aureus, as well as demonstrated efficiency in an ex vivo skin wound model of S. aureus and P. aeruginosa infection. Conclusions/Significance: Hydrophobic C-terminal end-tagging of the cationic sequence RRPRPRPRP generates highly selective AMPs with potent activity against multiresistant bacteria and efficiency in ex vivo wound infection models. A precise "tuning'' of toxicity and proteolytic stability may be achieved by changing tag-length and adding W-or F-amino acid tags

End-Tagging of Ultra-Short Antimicrobial Peptides by W/F Stretches to Facilitate Bacterial Killing

BACKGROUND: Due to increasing resistance development among bacteria, antimicrobial peptides (AMPs), are receiving increased attention. Ideally, AMP should display high bactericidal potency, but low toxicity against (human) eukaryotic cells. Additionally, short and proteolytically stable AMPs are desired to maximize bioavailability and therapeutic versatility. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A facile approach is demonstrated for reaching high potency of ultra-short antimicrobal peptides through end-tagging with W and F stretches. Focusing on a peptide derived from kininogen, KNKGKKNGKH (KNK10) and truncations thereof, end-tagging resulted in enhanced bactericidal effect against Gram-negative Escherichia coli and Gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus. Through end-tagging, potency and salt resistance could be maintained down to 4-7 amino acids in the hydrophilic template peptide. Although tagging resulted in increased eukaryotic cell permeabilization at low ionic strength, the latter was insignificant at physiological ionic strength and in the presence of serum. Quantitatively, the most potent peptides investigated displayed bactericidal effects comparable to, or in excess of, that of the benchmark antimicrobial peptide LL-37. The higher bactericidal potency of the tagged peptides correlated to a higher degree of binding to bacteria, and resulting bacterial wall rupture. Analogously, tagging enhanced peptide-induced rupture of liposomes, particularly anionic ones. Additionally, end-tagging facilitated binding to bacterial lipopolysaccharide, both effects probably contributing to the selectivity displayed by these peptides between bacteria and eukaryotic cells. Importantly, W-tagging resulted in peptides with maintained stability against proteolytic degradation by human leukocyte elastase, as well as staphylococcal aureolysin and V8 proteinase. The biological relevance of these findings was demonstrated ex vivo for pig skin infected by S. aureus and E. coli. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: End-tagging by hydrophobic amino acid stretches may be employed to enhance bactericidal potency also of ultra-short AMPs at maintained limited toxicity. The approach is of general applicability, and facilitates straightforward synthesis of hydrophobically modified AMPs without the need for post-peptide synthesis modifications

Fluctuation-Driven Neural Dynamics Reproduce Drosophila Locomotor Patterns.

The neural mechanisms determining the timing of even simple actions, such as when to walk or rest, are largely mysterious. One intriguing, but untested, hypothesis posits a role for ongoing activity fluctuations in neurons of central action selection circuits that drive animal behavior from moment to moment. To examine how fluctuating activity can contribute to action timing, we paired high-resolution measurements of freely walking Drosophila melanogaster with data-driven neural network modeling and dynamical systems analysis. We generated fluctuation-driven network models whose outputs-locomotor bouts-matched those measured from sensory-deprived Drosophila. From these models, we identified those that could also reproduce a second, unrelated dataset: the complex time-course of odor-evoked walking for genetically diverse Drosophila strains. Dynamical models that best reproduced both Drosophila basal and odor-evoked locomotor patterns exhibited specific characteristics. First, ongoing fluctuations were required. In a stochastic resonance-like manner, these fluctuations allowed neural activity to escape stable equilibria and to exceed a threshold for locomotion. Second, odor-induced shifts of equilibria in these models caused a depression in locomotor frequency following olfactory stimulation. Our models predict that activity fluctuations in action selection circuits cause behavioral output to more closely match sensory drive and may therefore enhance navigation in complex sensory environments. Together these data reveal how simple neural dynamics, when coupled with activity fluctuations, can give rise to complex patterns of animal behavior