Exploitation of error correlation in a large analysis validation: GlobCurrent case study

An assessment of variance in ocean current signal and noise shared by in situ observations (drifters) and a large gridded analysis (GlobCurrent) is sought as a function of day of the year for 1993–2015 and across a broad spectrum of current speed. Regardless of the division of collocations, it is difficult to claim that any synoptic assessment can be based on independent observations. Instead, a measurement model that departs from ordinary linear regression by accommodating error correlation is proposed. The interpretation of independence is explored by applying Fuller's (1987) concept of equation and measurement error to a division of error into shared (correlated) and unshared (uncorrelated) components, respectively. The resulting division of variance in the new model favours noise. Ocean current shared (equation) error is of comparable magnitude to unshared (measurement) error and the latter is, for GlobCurrent and drifters respectively, comparable to ordinary and reverse linear regression. Although signal variance appears to be small, its utility as a measure of agreement between two variates is highlighted. Sparse collocations that sample a dense (high resolution) grid permit a first order autoregressive form of measurement model to be considered, including parameterizations of analysis-in situ error cross-correlation and analysis temporal error autocorrelation. The former (cross-correlation) is an equation error term that accommodates error shared by both GlobCurrent and drifters. The latter (autocorrelation) facilitates an identification and retrieval of all model parameters. Solutions are sought using a prescribed calibration between GlobCurrent and drifters (by variance matching). Because the true current variance of GlobCurrent and drifters is small, signal to noise ratio is near zero at best. This is particularly evident for moderate current speed and for the meridional current component

A regional characterization of the GlobCurrent ocean surface current analysis

Observations of extreme conditions, characterized by high heat flux, rapidly changing surface salinity, or strong ocean current, are rare. Although analyses provide estimates of these conditions, because there are few observations to begin with, it is difficult to separately characterize (in terms of calibration and validation) extreme and typical conditions using independent observations. This requirement of independence may not be so dire, however, if we acknowledge that the impact of observations on an analysis is generally local, as is the propagation of errors in space and time. We propose that temporal extrapolation from outside a typical analysis window permits a calibration and validation by triple collocation (e.g., using only an analysis and available in situ observations; cf. Stoffelen 1998). We seek evidence of analysis performance improvement (as expected) using the calibrations that can be derived. We also seek to validate the GlobCurrent ocean current analysis across an entire current speed range, including at both the low (0.1ms-1) and high (1ms-1) ends

Convection and the Origin of Evershed Flows

Numerical simulations have by now revealed that the fine scale structure of the penumbra in general and the Evershed effect in particular is due to overturning convection, mainly confined to gaps with strongly reduced magnetic field strength. The Evershed flow is the radial component of the overturning convective flow visible at the surface. It is directed outwards -- away from the umbra -- because of the broken symmetry due to the inclined magnetic field. The dark penumbral filament cores visible at high resolution are caused by the 'cusps' in the magnetic field that form above the gaps. Still remaining to be established are the details of what determines the average luminosity of penumbrae, the widths, lengths, and filling factors of penumbral filaments, and the amplitudes and filling factors of the Evershed flow. These are likely to depend at least partially also on numerical aspects such as limited resolution and model size, but mainly on physical properties that have not yet been adequately determined or calibrated, such as the plasma beta profile inside sunspots at depth and its horizontal profile, the entropy of ascending flows in the penumbra, etc.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures. To appear in "Magnetic Coupling between the Interior and the Atmosphere of the Sun", eds. S.S. Hasan and R.J. Rutten, Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, Berlin, 200

Measurement of the Branching Fraction for B- --> D0 K*-

We present a measurement of the branching fraction for the decay B- --> D0 K*- using a sample of approximately 86 million BBbar pairs collected by the BaBar detector from e+e- collisions near the Y(4S) resonance. The D0 is detected through its decays to K- pi+, K- pi+ pi0 and K- pi+ pi- pi+, and the K*- through its decay to K0S pi-. We measure the branching fraction to be B.F.(B- --> D0 K*-)= (6.3 +/- 0.7(stat.) +/- 0.5(syst.)) x 10^{-4}.Comment: 7 pages, 1 postscript figure, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

Evidence for the Rare Decay B -> K*ll and Measurement of the B -> Kll Branching Fraction

We present evidence for the flavor-changing neutral current decay $B\to K^*\ell^+\ell^-$ and a measurement of the branching fraction for the related process $B\to K\ell^+\ell^-$, where $\ell^+\ell^-$ is either an $e^+e^-$ or $\mu^+\mu^-$ pair. These decays are highly suppressed in the Standard Model, and they are sensitive to contributions from new particles in the intermediate state. The data sample comprises $123\times 10^6$ $\Upsilon(4S)\to B\bar{B}$ decays collected with the Babar detector at the PEP-II $e^+e^-$ storage ring. Averaging over $K^{(*)}$ isospin and lepton flavor, we obtain the branching fractions ${\mathcal B}(B\to K\ell^+\ell^-)=(0.65^{+0.14}_{-0.13}\pm 0.04)\times 10^{-6}$ and ${\mathcal B}(B\to K^*\ell^+\ell^-)=(0.88^{+0.33}_{-0.29}\pm 0.10)\times 10^{-6}$, where the uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. The significance of the $B\to K\ell^+\ell^-$ signal is over $8\sigma$, while for $B\to K^*\ell^+\ell^-$ it is $3.3\sigma$.Comment: 7 pages, 2 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Study of e+e- --> pi+ pi- pi0 process using initial state radiation with BABAR

The process e+e- --> pi+ pi- pi0 gamma has been studied at a center-of-mass energy near the Y(4S) resonance using a 89.3 fb-1 data sample collected with the BaBar detector at the PEP-II collider. From the measured 3pi mass spectrum we have obtained the products of branching fractions for the omega and phi mesons, B(omega --> e+e-)B(omega --> 3pi)=(6.70 +/- 0.06 +/- 0.27)10-5 and B(phi --> e+e-)B(phi --> 3pi)=(4.30 +/- 0.08 +/- 0.21)10-5, and evaluated the e+e- --> pi+ pi- pi0 cross section for the e+e- center-of-mass energy range 1.05 to 3.00 GeV. About 900 e+e- --> J/psi gamma --> pi+ pi- pi0 gamma events have been selected and the branching fraction B(J/psi --> pi+ pi- pi0)=(2.18 +/- 0.19)% has been measured.Comment: 21 pages, 37 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Measurement of Branching Fraction and Dalitz Distribution for B0->D(*)+/- K0 pi-/+ Decays

We present measurements of the branching fractions for the three-body decays B0 -> D(*)-/+ K0 pi^+/-$and their resonant submodes$B0 -> D(*)-/+ K*+/- using a sample of approximately 88 million BBbar pairs collected by the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric energy storage ring. We measure: B(B0->D-/+ K0 pi+/-)=(4.9 +/- 0.7(stat) +/- 0.5 (syst)) 10^{-4} B(B0->D*-/+ K0 pi+/-)=(3.0 +/- 0.7(stat) +/- 0.3 (syst)) 10^{-4} B(B0->D-/+ K*+/-)=(4.6 +/- 0.6(stat) +/- 0.5 (syst)) 10^{-4} B(B0->D*-/+ K*+/-)=(3.2 +/- 0.6(stat) +/- 0.3 (syst)) 10^{-4} From these measurements we determine the fractions of resonant events to be : f(B0-> D-/+ K*+/-) = 0.63 +/- 0.08(stat) +/- 0.04(syst) f(B0-> D*-/+ K*+/-) = 0.72 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.05(syst)Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Measurement of the quasi-elastic axial vector mass in neutrino-oxygen interactions

The weak nucleon axial-vector form factor for quasi-elastic interactions is determined using neutrino interaction data from the K2K Scintillating Fiber detector in the neutrino beam at KEK. More than 12,000 events are analyzed, of which half are charged-current quasi-elastic interactions nu-mu n to mu- p occurring primarily in oxygen nuclei. We use a relativistic Fermi gas model for oxygen and assume the form factor is approximately a dipole with one parameter, the axial vector mass M_A, and fit to the shape of the distribution of the square of the momentum transfer from the nucleon to the nucleus. Our best fit result for M_A = 1.20 \pm 0.12 GeV. Furthermore, this analysis includes updated vector form factors from recent electron scattering experiments and a discussion of the effects of the nucleon momentum on the shape of the fitted distributions.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, 6 table

Measurement of the B+ --> p pbar K+ Branching Fraction and Study of the Decay Dynamics

With a sample of 232x10^6 Upsilon(4S) --> BBbar events collected with the BaBar detector, we study the decay B+ --> p pbar K+ excluding charmonium decays to ppbar. We measure a branching fraction Br(B+ --> p pbar K+)=(6.7+/-0.5+/-0.4)x10^{-6}. An enhancement at low ppbar mass is observed and the Dalitz plot asymmetry suggests dominance of the penguin amplitude in this B decay. We search for a pentaquark candidate Theta*++ decaying into pK+ in the mass range 1.43 to 2.00 GeV/c2 and set limits on Br(B+ --> Theta*++pbar)xBr(Theta*++ --> pK+) at the 10^{-7} level.Comment: 8 pages, 7 postscript figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications