Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm

The paper suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in a previous work by Billari et al. (2012), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic components determining the population evolution, i.e. fertility, mortality and migration. Here two main purposes are pursued. First, the demographic components are allowed to have some kind of dependence. Second, as a result of the existence of a body of shared information, possible correlations among experts are taken into account. In both cases, the dependence structure is not imposed by the researcher but it is indirectly derived through the scenarios elicited from the experts. To address these issues, the method is based on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate this posterior. The paper provides the questionnaire which was designed by the authors to collect expert opinions. Finally, an application to the forecast of the Italian Population from 2010 up to 2065 is proposed

Computational framework for longevity risk management

Longevity risk threatens the financial stability of private and government sponsored defined benefit pension systems as well as social security schemes, in an environment already characterized by persistent low interest rates and heightened financial uncertainty. The mortality experience of countries in the industrialized world would suggest a substantial age-time interaction, with the two dominant trends affecting different age groups at different times. From a statistical point of view, this indicates a dependence structure. It is observed that mortality improvements are similar for individuals of contiguous ages (Wills and Sherris, Integrating financial and demographic longevity risk models: an Australian model for financial applications, Discussion Paper PI-0817, 2008). Moreover, considering the dataset by single ages, the correlations between the residuals for adjacent age groups tend to be high (as noted in Denton et al., J Population Econ 18:203-227, 2005). This suggests that there is value in exploring the dependence structure, also across time, in other words the inter-period correlation. In this research, we focus on the projections of mortality rates, contravening the most commonly encountered dependence property which is the "lack of dependence" (Denuit et al., Actuarial theory for dependent risks: measures. Orders and models, Wiley, New York, 2005). By taking into account the presence of dependence across age and time which leads to systematic over-estimation or under-estimation of uncertainty in the estimates (Liu and Braun, J Probability Stat, 813583:15, 2010), the paper analyzes a tailor-made bootstrap methodology for capturing the spatial dependence in deriving confidence intervals for mortality projection rates. We propose a method which leads to a prudent measure of longevity risk, avoiding the structural incompleteness of the ordinary simulation bootstrap methodology which involves the assumption of independence

Dehydration of subducting slow-spread oceanic lithosphere in the Lesser Antilles

Subducting slabs carry water into the mantle and are a major gateway in the global geochemical water cycle. Fluid transport and release can be constrained with seismological data. Here we use joint active-source/local-earthquake seismic tomography to derive unprecedented constraints on multi-stage fluid release from subducting slow-spread oceanic lithosphere. We image the low P-wave velocity crustal layer on the slab top and show that it disappears beneath 60–100 km depth, marking the depth of dehydration metamorphism and eclogitization. Clustering of seismicity at 120–160 km depth suggests that the slab’s mantle dehydrates beneath the volcanic arc, and may be the main source of fluids triggering arc magma generation. Lateral variations in seismic properties on the slab surface suggest that serpentinized peridotite exhumed in tectonized slow-spread crust near fracture zones may increase water transport to sub-arc depths. This results in heterogeneous water release and directly impacts earthquakes generation and mantle wedge dynamics

Plate-boundary deformation associated with the great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake

The Sumatra–Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 is the first giant earthquake (moment magnitude M_w > 9.0) to have occurred since the advent of modern space-based geodesy and broadband seismology. It therefore provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the characteristics of one of these enormous and rare events. Here we report estimates of the ground displacement associated with this event, using near-field Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys in northwestern Sumatra combined with in situ and remote observations of the vertical motion of coral reefs. These data show that the earthquake was generated by rupture of the Sunda subduction megathrust over a distance of >1,500 kilometres and a width of <150 kilometres. Megathrust slip exceeded 20 metres offshore northern Sumatra, mostly at depths shallower than 30 kilometres. Comparison of the geodetically and seismically inferred slip distribution indicates that ~30 per cent additional fault slip accrued in the 1.5 months following the 500-second-long seismic rupture. Both seismic and aseismic slip before our re-occupation of GPS sites occurred on the shallow portion of the megathrust, where the large Aceh tsunami originated. Slip tapers off abruptly along strike beneath Simeulue Island at the southeastern edge of the rupture, where the earthquake nucleated and where an M_w = 7.2 earthquake occurred in late 2002. This edge also abuts the northern limit of slip in the 28 March 2005 M_w = 8.7 Nias–Simeulue earthquake

Kinematics of the Southern Rhodope Core Complex (North Greece)

The Southern Rhodope Core Complex is a wide metamorphic dome exhumed in the northern Aegean as a result of large-scale extension from mid-Eocene to mid-Miocene times. Its roughly triangular shape is bordered on the SW by the Jurassic and Cretaceous metamorphic units of the Serbo-Macedonian in the Chalkidiki peninsula and on the N by the eclogite bearing gneisses of the Sideroneron massif. The main foliation of metamorphic rocks is flat lying up to 100 km core complex width. Most rocks display a stretching lineation trending NEâ SW. The Kerdylion detachment zone located at the SW controlled the exhumation of the core complex from middle Eocene to mid-Oligocene. From late Oligocene to mid-Miocene exhumation is located inside the dome and is accompanied by the emplacement of the synkinematic plutons of Vrondou and Symvolon. Since late Miocene times, extensional basin sediments are deposited on top of the exhumed metamorphic and plutonic rocks and controlled by steep normal faults and flat-ramp-type structures. Evidence from Thassos Island is used to illustrate the sequence of deformation from stacking by thrusting of the metamorphic pile to ductile extension and finally to development of extensional Plio-Pleistocene sedimentary basin. Paleomagnetic data indicate that the core complex exhumation is controlled by a 30� dextral rotation of the Chalkidiki block. Extensional displacements are restored using a pole of rotation deduced from the curvature of stretching lineation trends at core complex scale. It is argued that the Rhodope Core Complex has recorded at least 120 km of extension in the North Aegean, since the last 40 My

Shear behavior of DFDP-1 borehole samples from the Alpine Fault, New Zealand, under a wide range of experimental conditions

The Alpine Fault is a major plate-boundary fault zone that poses a major seismic hazard in southern New Zealand. The initial stage of the Deep Fault Drilling Project has provided sample material from the major lithological constituents of the Alpine Fault from two pilot boreholes. We use laboratory shearing experiments to show that the friction coefficient µ of fault-related rocks and their precursors varies between 0.38 and 0.80 depending on the lithology, presence of pore fluid, effective normal stress, and temperature. Under conditions appropriate for several kilometers depth on the Alpine Fault (100 MPa, 160 °C, fluid-saturated), a gouge sample located very near to the principal slip zone exhibits µ = 0.67, which is high compared with other major fault zones targeted by scientific drilling, and suggests the capacity for large shear stresses at depth. A consistent observation is that every major lithological unit tested exhibits positive and negative values of friction velocity dependence. Critical nucleation patch lengths estimated using representative values of the friction velocity-dependent parameter a−b and the critical slip distance D c , combined with previously documented elastic properties of the wall rock, may be as low as ~3 m. This small value, consistent with a seismic moment M o = ~4 × 1010 for an M w = ~1 earthquake, suggests that events of this size or larger are expected to occur as ordinary earthquakes and that slow or transient slip events are unlikely in the approximate depth range of 3–7 km