Distinctive features of spatial planning nearby estuaries – an exploratory analysis of water-related rules in municipal master plans in Portugal

Land-use types and related intensities are often associated with pressures and disturbances on estuarine envi- ronmental values and ecosystem services provided by water. Although with varied legal frameworks across countries, broadly, spatial planning has been expected to contribute to the protection of environmentally sen- sitive areas, such as estuaries. Among the various planning tools are the plan’s land-use control rules. This article studies the incorporation of water-related terms in the regulations of municipal master plans to assess if land-use rules established on estuarine areas are significantly different from others, such as in upstream areas. It does so by developing a content analysis of a set of plans’ regulations located in estuarine and upstream areas of two river basins of Mainland Portugal. The results show greater incorporation of water-related terms in plans’ reg- ulations located in estuarine areas. Moreover, they show a greater diversity of water-related topics, types, and focus of rules on estuarine areas, whereas on upstream areas the regulatory approaches look poorer. Although the incorporation of water-related terms is globally higher in younger plans, and to a certain extent, in more arti- ficialized and dense territories, a clear distinctiveness of water-related concerns in land-use regulations of municipal plans on estuarine areas remains visible. Surprisingly, the results bring to the fore fragilities of land- use regulations on upstream areas worthy of attention in future studies. The methodology used for content analysis disclosed a valuable path for future research as it is easily expandable to take into consideration different land-uses or to be applied to different regions, to further refine if the distinctive features are explicitly related with estuarine areas or with other types of water problems.publishe

Endemicity response timelines for Plasmodium falciparum elimination

Background: The scaling up of malaria control and renewed calls for malaria eradication have raised interest in defining timelines for changes in malaria endemicity. Methods: The epidemiological theory for the decline in the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR, the prevalence of infection) following intervention was critically reviewed and where necessary extended to consider superinfection, heterogenous biting, and aging infections. Timelines for malaria control and elimination under different levels of intervention were then established using a wide range of candidate mathematical models. Analysis focused on the timelines from baseline to 1% and from 1% through the final stages of elimination. Results: The Ross-Macdonald model, which ignores superinfection, was used for planning during the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP). In models that consider superinfection, PfPR takes two to three years longer to reach 1% starting from a hyperendemic baseline, consistent with one of the few large-scale malaria control trials conducted in an African population with hyperendemic malaria. The time to elimination depends fundamentally upon the extent to which malaria transmission is interrupted and the size of the human population modelled. When the PfPR drops below 1%, almost all models predict similar and proportional declines in PfPR in consecutive years from 1% through to elimination and that the waiting time to reduce PfPR from 10% to 1% and from 1% to 0.1% are approximately equal, but the decay rate can increase over time if infections senesce. Conclusion: The theory described herein provides simple "rules of thumb" and likely time horizons for the impact of interventions for control and elimination. Starting from a hyperendemic baseline, the GMEP planning timelines, which were based on the Ross-Macdonald model with completely interrupted transmission, were inappropriate for setting endemicity timelines and they represent the most optimistic scenario for places with lower endemicity. Basic timelines from PfPR of 1% through elimination depend on population size and low-level transmission. These models provide a theoretical basis that can be further tailored to specific control and elimination scenarios