Phenotypes Determined by Cluster Analysis and Their Survival in the Prospective European Scleroderma Trials and Research Cohort of Patients With Systemic Sclerosis

Objective: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a heterogeneous connective tissue disease that is typically subdivided into limited cutaneous SSc (lcSSc) and diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc) depending on the extent of skin involvement. This subclassification may not capture the entire variability of clinical phenotypes. The European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database includes data on a prospective cohort of SSc patients from 122 European referral centers. This study was undertaken to perform a cluster analysis of EUSTAR data to distinguish and characterize homogeneous phenotypes without any a priori assumptions, and to examine survival among the clusters obtained. / Methods: A total of 11,318 patients were registered in the EUSTAR database, and 6,927 were included in the study. Twenty‐four clinical and serologic variables were used for clustering. / Results: Clustering analyses provided a first delineation of 2 clusters showing moderate stability. In an exploratory attempt, we further characterized 6 homogeneous groups that differed with regard to their clinical features, autoantibody profile, and mortality. Some groups resembled usual dcSSc or lcSSc prototypes, but others exhibited unique features, such as a majority of lcSSc patients with a high rate of visceral damage and antitopoisomerase antibodies. Prognosis varied among groups and the presence of organ damage markedly impacted survival regardless of cutaneous involvement. / Conclusion: Our findings suggest that restricting subsets of SSc patients to only those based on cutaneous involvement may not capture the complete heterogeneity of the disease. Organ damage and antibody profile should be taken into consideration when individuating homogeneous groups of patients with a distinct prognosis

A gender gap in primary and secondary heart dysfunctions in systemic sclerosis: a EUSTAR prospective study

OBJECTIVES: In agreement with other autoimmune diseases, systemic sclerosis (SSc) is associated with a strong sex bias. However, unlike lupus, the effects of sex on disease phenotype and prognosis are poorly known. Therefore, we aimed to determine sex effects on outcomes. METHOD: We performed a prospective observational study using the latest 2013 data extract from the EULAR scleroderma trials and research (EUSTAR) cohort. We looked at (i) sex influence on disease characteristics at baseline and (ii) then focused on patients with at least 2 years of follow-up to estimate the effects of sex on disease progression and survival. RESULTS: 9182 patients with SSc were available (1321 men) for the baseline analyses. In multivariate analysis, male sex was independently associated with a higher risk of diffuse cutaneous subtype (OR: 1.68, (1.45 to 1.94); p<0.001), a higher frequency of digital ulcers (OR: 1.28 (1.11 to 1.47); p<0.001) and pulmonary hypertension (OR: 3.01 (1.47 to 6.20); p<0.003). In the longitudinal analysis (n=4499), after a mean follow-up of 4.9 (±2.7) years, male sex was predictive of new onset of pulmonary hypertension (HR: 2.66 (1.32 to 5.36); p=0.006) and heart failure (HR: 2.22 (1.06 to 4.63); p=0.035). 908 deaths were recorded, male sex predicted deaths of all origins (HR: 1.48 (1.19 to 1.84); p<0.001), but did not significantly account for SSc-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Although more common in women, SSc appears as strikingly more severe in men. Our results obtained through the largest worldwide database demonstrate a higher risk of severe cardiovascular involvement in men. These results raise the point of including sex in the management and the decision-making process

Prediction of worsening of skin fibrosis in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis using the EUSTAR database

Objectives To identify predictive parameters for the progression of skin fibrosis within 1 year in patients with diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc). Methods An observational study using the EUSTAR database was performed. Inclusion criteria were dcSSc, American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria fulfilled, modified Rodnan skin score (MRSS) ≥7 at baseline visit, valid data for MRSS at 2nd visit, and available follow-up of 12±2 months. Worsening of skin fibrosis was defined as increase in MRSS &gt;5 points and ≥25% from baseline to 2nd visit. In the univariate analysis, patients with progressive fibrosis were compared with non-progressors, and predictive markers with p&lt;0.2 were included in the logistic regression analysis. The prediction models were then validated in a second cohort. Results A total of 637 dcSSc patients were eligible. Univariate analyses identified joint synovitis, short disease duration (≤15 months), short disease duration in females/patients without creatine kinase (CK) elevation, low baseline MRSS (≤22/51), and absence of oesophageal symptoms as potential predictors for progressive skin fibrosis. In the multivariate analysis, by employing combinations of the predictors, 17 models with varying prediction success were generated, allowing cohort enrichment from 9.7% progressive patients in the whole cohort to 44.4% in the optimised enrichment cohort. Using a second validation cohort of 188 dcSSc patients, short disease duration, low baseline MRSS and joint synovitis were confirmed as independent predictors of progressive skin fibrosis within 1 year resulting in a 4.5-fold increased prediction success rate. Conclusions Our study provides novel, evidence-based criteria for the enrichment of dcSSc cohorts with patients who experience worsening of skin fibrosis which allows improved clinical trial design

ACE inhibitors in SSc patients display a risk factor for scleroderma renal crisis - A EUSTAR analysis

Objectives: To investigate the effect of ACE inhibitors (ACEi) on the incidence of scleroderma renal crisis (SRC) when given prior to SRC in the prospectively collected cohort from the European Scleroderma Trial and Research Group (EUSTAR). Methods: SSc patients without prior SRC and at least one follow-up visit were included and analyzed regarding SRC, arterial hypertension, and medication focusing on antihypertensive medication and glucocorticoids (GC). Results: Out of 14,524 patients in the database, we identified 7648 patients with at least one follow-up. In 27,450 person-years (py), 102 patients developed SRC representing an incidence of 3.72 (3.06-4.51) per 1000 py. In a multivariable time-to-event analysis adjusted for age, sex, disease severity, and onset, 88 of 6521 patients developed SRC. The use of ACEi displayed an increased risk for the development of SRC with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.55 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.65-3.95). Adjusting for arterial hypertension resulted in a HR of 2.04 (95%CI 1.29-3.24). There was no evidence for an interaction of ACEi and arterial hypertension (HR 0.83, 95%CI 0.32-2.13, p = 0.69). Calcium channel blockers (CCB), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), endothelin receptor antagonists, and GC - mostly in daily dosages below 15 mg of prednisolone - did not influence the hazard for SRC. Conclusions: ACEi in SSc patients with concomitant arterial hypertension display an independent risk factor for the development of SRC but are still first choice in SRC treatment. ARBs might be a safe alternative, yet the overall safety of alternative antihypertensive drugs in SSc patients needs to be further studied

Prediction of improvement in skin fibrosis in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis: A EUSTAR analysis

Objectives Improvement of skin fibrosis is part of the natural course of diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Recognising those patients most likely to improve could help tailoring clinical management and cohort enrichment for clinical trials. In this study, we aimed to identify predictors for improvement of skin fibrosis in patients with dcSSc. Methods We performed a longitudinal analysis of the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) registry including patients with dcSSc, fulfilling American College of Rheumatology criteria, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7 and follow-up mRSS at 12 ±2 months. The primary outcome was skin improvement (decrease in mRSS of &gt;5 points and ≥25%) at 1 year follow-up. A respective increase in mRSS was considered progression. Candidate predictors for skin improvement were selected by expert opinion and logistic regression with bootstrap validation was applied. Results From the 919 patients included, 218 (24%) improved and 95 (10%) progressed. Eleven candidate predictors for skin improvement were analysed. The final model identified high baseline mRSS and absence of tendon friction rubs as independent predictors of skin improvement. The baseline mRSS was the strongest predictor of skin improvement, independent of disease duration. An upper threshold between 18 and 25 performed best in enriching for progressors over regressors. Conclusions Patients with advanced skin fibrosis at baseline and absence of tendon friction rubs are more likely to regress in the next year than patients with milder skin fibrosis. These evidence-based data can be implemented in clinical trial design to minimise the inclusion of patients who would regress under standard of care

Preliminary criteria for the very early diagnosis of systemic sclerosis: results of a Delphi Consensus Study from EULAR Scleroderma Trials and Research Group

OBJECTIVE: To identify a core set of preliminary items considered as important for the very early diagnosis of systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: A list of items provided by European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) Scleroderma Trial and Research(EUSTAR) centres were subjected to a Delphi exercise among 110 experts in the field of SSc. In round 1, experts were asked to choose the items they considered as the most important for the very early diagnosis of SSc. In round 2, experts were asked to reconsider the items accepted after the first stage. In round 3, the clinical relevance of selected items and their importance as measures that would lead to an early referral process were rated using appropriateness scores. RESULTS: Physicians from 85 EUSTAR centres participated in the study and provided an initial list of 121 items. After three Delphi rounds, the steering committee, with input from external experts, collapsed the 121 items into three domains containing seven items, developed as follows: skin domain (puffy fingers/puffy swollen digits turning into sclerodactily); vascular domain (Raynaud's phenomenon, abnormal capillaroscopy with scleroderma pattern) and laboratory domain (antinuclear, anticentromere and antitopoisomerase-I antibodies). Finally, the whole assembly of EUSTAR centres ratified with a majority vote the results in a final face-to-face meeting. CONCLUSION: The three Delphi rounds allowed us to identify the items considered by experts as necessary for the very early diagnosis of SSc. The validation of these items to establish diagnostic criteria is currently ongoing in a prospective observational cohort

Prediction of worsening of skin fibrosis in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis using the EUSTAR database

Objectives To identify predictive parameters for the progression of skin fibrosis within 1 year in patients with diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc). Methods An observational study using the EUSTAR database was performed. Inclusion criteria were dcSSc, American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria fulfilled, modified Rodnan skin score (MRSS) ≥7 at baseline visit, valid data for MRSS at 2nd visit, and available follow-up of 12±2 months. Worsening of skin fibrosis was defined as increase in MRSS &gt;5 points and ≥25% from baseline to 2nd visit. In the univariate analysis, patients with progressive fibrosis were compared with non-progressors, and predictive markers with p&lt;0.2 were included in the logistic regression analysis. The prediction models were then validated in a second cohort. Results A total of 637 dcSSc patients were eligible. Univariate analyses identified joint synovitis, short disease duration (≤15 months), short disease duration in females/patients without creatine kinase (CK) elevation, low baseline MRSS (≤22/51), and absence of oesophageal symptoms as potential predictors for progressive skin fibrosis. In the multivariate analysis, by employing combinations of the predictors, 17 models with varying prediction success were generated, allowing cohort enrichment from 9.7% progressive patients in the whole cohort to 44.4% in the optimised enrichment cohort. Using a second validation cohort of 188 dcSSc patients, short disease duration, low baseline MRSS and joint synovitis were confirmed as independent predictors of progressive skin fibrosis within 1 year resulting in a 4.5-fold increased prediction success rate. Conclusions Our study provides novel, evidence-based criteria for the enrichment of dcSSc cohorts with patients who experience worsening of skin fibrosis which allows improved clinical trial design

What have multicentre registries across the world taught us about the disease features of systemic sclerosis?

Introduction: The aim of this study is to compare the clinical features, mortality and causes of death of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients in four large multicentre registries.Methods: Patients seen at least once in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS) (n = 1714), the Canadian Scleroderma Research Group (CSRG) (n = 1628), the European League Against Rheumatism Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) Network (n = 13,996) and the Systemic Sclerosis Cohort in Singapore (SCORE) (n = 500) before August 2016 were included. Clinical manifestations and survival in cohorts and disease subtypes were compared.Results: Among 17,838 SSc patients, most were female (86.1%), Caucasian (84.6%) and had the limited cutaneous subtype (lcSSc) (65.0%). The anti-centromere autoantibody was the most prevalent (37.6%). More patients in SCORE had the diffuse subtype (dcSSc) (49.3%) and Scl-70 autoantibody (38.8%) (p&lt;0.001). Patients with dcSSc were more likely to be younger and male (p&lt;0.001) and have shorter disease duration, more calcinosis, tendon friction rubs and synovitis (all p&lt;0.001). Interstitial lung disease (ILD) occurred more frequently in dcSSc but prevalence of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) was similar in both subtypes. More deaths occurred among SCORE patients who had the shortest median survival (p&lt;0.001). The survival of patients with early disease, males and those with dcSSc was shorter than that of patients with prevalent disease, female gender and lcSSc, respectively. SSc-related complications accounted for more than 50% of deaths, with PAH and ILD being the most common.Conclusions: This meta-cohort of SSc patients, the largest reported to date, provides insights into the impact of race and sex on disease manifestations and survival and confirms the early mortality in this disease

Update on the profile of the EUSTAR cohort: an analysis of the EULAR Scleroderma Trials and Research group database

OBJECTIVES: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a rare disease requiring multicentre collaboration to reveal comprehensive details of disease-related causes for morbidity and mortality. METHODS: The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) group initiated a database to prospectively gather key data of patients with SSc using a minimal essential dataset that was reorganised in 2008 introducing new items. Baseline visit data of patients who were registered between 2004 and 2011 were analysed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: In June 2011, 7655 patients (2838 with diffuse cutaneous (dc) and 4481 with limited cutaneous (lc) SSc who fulfilled the American College of Rheumatology diagnostic criteria had been registered in 174 centres, mainly European. The most prominent hallmarks of disease were Raynaud's phenomenon (96.3%), antinuclear antibodies (93.4%) and a typical capillaroscopic pattern (90.9%). Scleroderma was more common on fingers and hands than on any other part of the skin. Proton pump inhibitors (65.2%), calcium channel blockers (52.7%), and corticosteroids (45.3%) were most often prescribed. Among the immunosuppressant agents, cyclophosphamide was used more often in dcSSc than in lcSSc. CONCLUSIONS: The EUSTAR database provides an abundance of information on the true clinical face of SSc that will be helpful in improving the classification of SSc and its subsets and for developing more specific therapeutic recommendations

Prediction of improvement in skin fibrosis in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis: A EUSTAR analysis

Objectives Improvement of skin fibrosis is part of the natural course of diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Recognising those patients most likely to improve could help tailoring clinical management and cohort enrichment for clinical trials. In this study, we aimed to identify predictors for improvement of skin fibrosis in patients with dcSSc. Methods We performed a longitudinal analysis of the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) registry including patients with dcSSc, fulfilling American College of Rheumatology criteria, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7 and follow-up mRSS at 12 ±2 months. The primary outcome was skin improvement (decrease in mRSS of >5 points and ≥25%) at 1 year follow-up. A respective increase in mRSS was considered progression. Candidate predictors for skin improvement were selected by expert opinion and logistic regression with bootstrap validation was applied. Results From the 919 patients included, 218 (24%) improved and 95 (10%) progressed. Eleven candidate predictors for skin improvement were analysed. The final model identified high baseline mRSS and absence of tendon friction rubs as independent predictors of skin improvement. The baseline mRSS was the strongest predictor of skin improvement, independent of disease duration. An upper threshold between 18 and 25 performed best in enriching for progressors over regressors. Conclusions Patients with advanced skin fibrosis at baseline and absence of tendon friction rubs are more likely to regress in the next year than patients with milder skin fibrosis. These evidence-based data can be implemented in clinical trial design to minimise the inclusion of patients who would regress under standard of care