Interactive specification of data displays

On-line graphical language for computer data displa

Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: Systematic review

This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) licence that allows reuse subject only to the use being non-commercial and to the article being fully attributed (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0).Objective - To evaluate current risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes and inform selection and implementation of these in practice. Design - Systematic review using standard (quantitative) and realist (mainly qualitative) methodology. Inclusion - criteria Papers in any language describing the development or external validation, or both, of models and scores to predict the risk of an adult developing type 2 diabetes. Data sources - Medline, PreMedline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched. Included studies were citation tracked in Google Scholar to identify follow-on studies of usability or impact. Data extraction - Data were extracted on statistical properties of models, details of internal or external validation, and use of risk scores beyond the studies that developed them. Quantitative data were tabulated to compare model components and statistical properties. Qualitative data were analysed thematically to identify mechanisms by which use of the risk model or score might improve patient outcomes. Results - 8864 titles were scanned, 115 full text papers considered, and 43 papers included in the final sample. These described the prospective development or validation, or both, of 145 risk prediction models and scores, 94 of which were studied in detail here. They had been tested on 6.88 million participants followed for up to 28 years. Heterogeneity of primary studies precluded meta-analysis. Some but not all risk models or scores had robust statistical properties (for example, good discrimination and calibration) and had been externally validated on a different population. Genetic markers added nothing to models over clinical and sociodemographic factors. Most authors described their score as “simple” or “easily implemented,” although few were specific about the intended users and under what circumstances. Ten mechanisms were identified by which measuring diabetes risk might improve outcomes. Follow-on studies that applied a risk score as part of an intervention aimed at reducing actual risk in people were sparse. Conclusion - Much work has been done to develop diabetes risk models and scores, but most are rarely used because they require tests not routinely available or they were developed without a specific user or clear use in mind. Encouragingly, recent research has begun to tackle usability and the impact of diabetes risk scores. Two promising areas for further research are interventions that prompt lay people to check their own diabetes risk and use of risk scores on population datasets to identify high risk “hotspots” for targeted public health interventions.Tower Hamlets, Newham, and City and Hackney primary care trusts and National Institute of Health Research

Use of labour induction and risk of cesarean delivery: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Induction of labour is common, and cesarean delivery is regarded as its major complication. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate whether the risk of cesarean delivery is higher or lower following labour induction compared with expectant management. Methods: We searched 6 electronic databases for relevant articles published through April 2012 to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in which labour induction was compared with placebo or expectant management among women with a viable singleton pregnancy. We assessed risk of bias and obtained data on rates of cesarean delivery. We used regression analysis techniques to explore the effect of patient characteristics, induction methods and study quality on risk of cesarean delivery. Results: We identified 157 eligible RCTs (n = 31 085). Overall, the risk of cesarean delivery was 12% lower with labour induction than with expectant management (pooled relative risk [RR] 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.93; I2 = 0%). The effect was significant in term and post-term gestations but not in preterm gestations. Meta-regression analysis showed that initial cervical score, indication for induction and method of induction did not alter the main result. There was a reduced risk of fetal death (RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.25-0.99; I2 = 0%) and admission to a neonatal intensive care unit (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79-0.94), and no impact on maternal death (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.10-9.57; I2 = 0%) with labour induction. Interpretation: The risk of cesarean delivery was lower among women whose labour was induced than among those managed expectantly in term and post-term gestations. There were benefits for the fetus and no increased risk of maternal death. © 2014 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors

Breast cancer in lesbians and bisexual women: Systematic review of incidence, prevalence and risk studies

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. © 2013 Meads and Moore; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background: The UK Parliamentary Enquiry and USA Institute of Medicine state that lesbians may be at a higher risk of breast cancer but there is insufficient information. Lesbians and bisexual (LB) women have behavioural risk-factors at higher rates compared to heterosexuals such as increased alcohol intake and higher stress levels. Conversely, breast cancer rates are higher in more affluent women yet income levels in LB women are relatively low. This systematic review investigated all evidence on whether there is, or likely to be, higher rates of breast cancer in LB women. Methods: Cochrane library (CDSR, CENTRAL, HTA, DARE, NHSEED), MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, CAB abstracts, Web of Science (SCI, SSCI), SIGLE and Social Care Online databases were searched to October 2013. Unpublished research and specific lesbian, gay and bisexual websites were checked, as were citation lists of relevant papers. Included were studies in LB populations reporting breast cancer incidence or prevalence rates, risk model results or risk-factor estimates. Inclusions, data-extraction and quality assessment were by two reviewers with disagreements resolved by discussion. Results: Searches found 198 references. No incidence rates were found. Nine studies gave prevalence estimates - two showed higher, four showed no differences, one showed mixed results depending on definitions, one had no comparison group and one gave no sample size. All studies were small with poor methodological and/or reporting quality. One incidence modelling study suggested a higher rate. Four risk modelling studies were found, one Rosner-Colditz and three Gail models. Three suggested higher and one lower rate in LB compared to heterosexual women. Six risk-factor estimates suggested higher risk and one no difference between LB and heterosexual women. Conclusions: The only realistic way to establish rates in LB women would be to collect sexual orientation within routine statistics, including cancer registry data, or from large cohort studies

Prucalopride for the treatment of women with chronic constipation in whom standard laxative regimens have failed to provide adequate relief

© Queen’s Printer and Controller of HMSO 2011This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of prucalopride for the treatment of women with chronic constipation in whom standard laxative regimens have failed to provide adequate relief. The ERG report is based on the manufacturer's submission (MS) to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence as part of the single technology appraisal process. In the submission, quality-of-life data [Patient Assessment of Constipation Quality of Life (PAC-QOL) and Patient Assessment of Constipation Symptoms (PAC-SYM) questionnaires] from trials of prucalopride were extrapolated to EQ-5D (European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions) data and used to inform effectiveness in an economic model. Response rates to prucalopride were derived from observed response rates in trials, defined as the proportion of patients achieving an average of three or more spontaneous complete bowel movements over the 4- or 12-week trial periods. Adult (18-64 years) and elderly (≥ 65 years) patients were considered separately in the model. Cost-effectiveness was determined from estimated improvements in EQ-5D and anticipated response rates, adjusted for baseline severity of chronic constipation. The ERG considered that the patients participating in these trials were not representative of those in the licensed indication. They were not all refractory to laxatives, and baseline EQ-5D scores showed a large spread in quality of life, with many patients experiencing little baseline dissatisfaction. The mapping of quality-of-life data from trials (PAC-QOL and PAC-SYM data) to EQ-5D was unclear and invalidated. The assumption of the long-term effectiveness and safety of prucalopride to 1 year was considered unjustified. There was no justification or sources given for coefficients used to predict effectiveness in the economic model, and no costs other than the cost of prucalopride were incorporated into the model. Owing to the many areas of uncertainty, particularly the effectiveness of prucalopride in the licensed patient group and its long-term effectiveness and safety, it was considered that the MS provided no evidence for whether prucalopride is effective or not in women with laxative-refractory chronic constipation. Further subgroup analysis of the actual patient group of interest may have better guided decision-making. However, long-term efficacy data, with validated estimates of quality of life incorporated in a well-founded model, would be important for an evidence-based judgement to be made

Cost-effectiveness of Dementia Care Mapping in care home settings – Evaluation of a randomised controlled trial

Background: Behaviours such as agitation impact on the quality of life of care home residents with dementia and increase health care use. Interventions to prevent these behaviours have little evidence supporting their effectiveness or cost-effectiveness. We conducted an economic evaluation alongside a trial assessing Dementia Care Mapping™ (DCM) versus usual care for reducing agitation and highlight methodological challenges of conducting evaluations in this population and setting. Methods: RCT data over 16 months from English care home residents with dementia (intervention n = 418; control n = 308) were analysed. We conducted a cost-utility analysis from the healthcare provider perspective. We gathered resource use and utility (EQ-5D-5L and DEMQoL-Proxy-U) from people living with dementia and proxy informants (staff and relatives). Data were analysed using seemingly unrelated regression, accounting for care home clustering and bootstrapping used to capture sampling uncertainty. Results: Costs were higher in the intervention arm than control arm (incremental = £1,479) due in part to high cost outliers. There were small QALY gains (incremental = 0.024) in favour of DCM. The base case ICER (£64,380 per QALY) suggests DCM is not cost-effective versus usual care. With the exception of analyses excluding high cost outliers, which suggested a potential for DCM to be cost-effective, sensitivity analyses corroborated the base case findings. Bootstrapped estimates suggested DCM had a low probability (p<0.20 where λ=£20,000) of being cost-effective versus control. Conclusion: DCM does not appear to be a cost-effective intervention versus usual care in this group and setting. The evaluation highlighted several methodological challenges relating to validity of utility assessments, loss to follow-up and compliance. Further research is needed on handling high cost individuals and capturing utility in this group

Reactive nitrogen budget during the NASA SONEX Mission

The SASS Ozone and Nitrogen Oxides Experiment (SONEX) over the North Atlantic during October/November 1997 offered an excellent opportunity to examine the budget of reactive nitrogen in the upper troposphere (8–12 km altitude). The median measured total reactive nitrogen (NOy) mixing ratio was 425 parts per trillion by volume (pptv). A data set merged to the HNO3 measurement time resolution was used to calculate NOy (NOy sum) by summing the reactive nitrogen species (a combination of measured plus modeled results) and comparing it to measured NOy (NOy meas.). Comparisons were done for tropospheric air (O3 \u3c100 parts per billion by volume (ppbv)) and stratospherically influenced air (O3 \u3e 100 ppbv) with both showing good agreement between NOy sum and NOy meas. (slope \u3e0.9 and r² ≈ 0.9). The total reactive nitrogen budget in the upper troposphere over the North Atlantic appears to be dominated by a mixture of NOx (NO + NO2), HNO3, and PAN. In tropospheric air median values of NOx/NOywere ≈ 0.25, HNO3/NOy ≈ 0.35 and PAN/NOy ≈ 0.17. Particulate NO3− and alkyl nitrates together composed \u3c10% of NOy, while model estimated HNO4 averaged 12%. For the air parcels sampled during SONEX, there does not appear to be a large reservoir of unidentified NOy compounds

Do Electronic Cigarettes Increase Cigarette Smoking in UK Adolescents? Evidence from a 12-month Prospective Study

Background In cross-sectional surveys, increasing numbers of adolescents report using both electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) and cigarettes. This study assessed whether adolescent e-cigarette use was associated prospectively with initiation or escalation of cigarette use. Methods Data were from 2836 adolescents (aged 13–14 years at baseline) in 20 schools in England. At baseline, breath carbon monoxide levels, self-reported e-cigarette and cigarette use, sex, age, friends and family smoking, beliefs about cigarette use and percentage receiving free school meals (measure of socioeconomic status) were assessed. At 12-month follow-up, self-reported cigarette use was assessed and validated by breath carbon monoxide levels. Results At baseline, 34.2% of adolescents reported ever using e-cigarettes (16.0% used only e-cigarettes). Baseline ever use of e-cigarettes was strongly associated with subsequent initiation (n=1726; OR 5.38, 95% CI 4.02 to 7.22; controlling for covariates, OR 4.06, 95% CI 2.94 to 5.60) and escalation (n=318; OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.14 to 3.21; controlling for covariates, this effect became non-significant, OR 1.39, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.82) of cigarette use. Conclusions This is the first study to report prospective relationships between ever use of e-cigarettes and initiation and escalation of cigarette use among UK adolescents. Ever use of e-cigarettes was robustly associated with initiation but more modestly related to escalation of cigarette use. Further research with longer follow-up in a broader age range of adolescents is required

Comparison of national strategies to reduce methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections in Japan and England

Background National responses to healthcare-associated infections vary between high-income countries but when analysed for contextual comparability, interventions can be assessed for transferability. Aim To identify learning from country-level approaches to addressing meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in Japan and England. Methods A longitudinal analysis (2000-17), comparing epidemiological trends and policy interventions. Data from 441 textual sources concerning infection prevention and control (IPC), surveillance, and antimicrobial stewardship interventions were systematically coded for: type - mandatory requirements, recommendations, or national campaigns; method - restrictive, persuasive, structural in nature; level of implementation - macro (national), meso (organisational), micro (individual) levels. Healthcare organisational structures and role of media were also assessed. Findings In England significant reduction has been achieved in number of reported MRSA bloodstream infections. In Japan, in spite of reductions, MRSA remains a predominant infection. Both countries face new threats in the emergence of drug-resistant Escherichia coli. England has focused on national mandatory and structural interventions, supported by a combination of outcomes-based incentives and punitive mechanisms, and multidisciplinary IPC hospital teams. Japan has focused on (non-mandatory) recommendations and primarily persuasive interventions, supported by process-based incentives, with voluntary surveillance. Areas for development in Japan include resourcing of dedicated data management support and implementation of national campaigns for healthcare professionals and the public. Conclusion Policy interventions need to be relevant to local epidemiological trends, while acceptable within health system cultures and public expectations. Cross-national learning can help inform the right mix of interventions to create sustainable and resilient systems for future infection and economic challenges

Do home adaptation interventions help to reduce emergency fall admissions? A national longitudinal data-linkage study of 657,536 older adults living in Wales (UK) between 2010 and 2017

Backgroundfalls are common in older people, but evidence for the effectiveness of preventative home adaptations is limited.Aimdetermine whether a national home adaptation service, Care&Repair Cymru (C&RC), identified individuals at risk of falls occurring at home and reduced the likelihood of falls.Study Designretrospective longitudinal controlled non-randomised intervention cohort study.Settingour cohort consisted of 657,536 individuals aged 60+ living in Wales (UK) between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2017. About 123,729 individuals received a home adaptation service.Methodswe created a dataset with up to 41 quarterly observations per person. For each quarter, we observed if a fall occurred at home that resulted in either an emergency department or an emergency hospital admission. We analysed the data using multilevel logistic regression.Resultscompared to the control group, C&RC clients had higher odds of falling, with an odds ratio (OR [95% confidence interval]) of 1.93 [1.87, 2.00]. Falls odds was higher for females (1.44 [1.42, 1.46]), older age (1.07 [1.07, 1.07]), increased frailty (mild 1.57 [1.55, 1.60], moderate 2.31 [2.26, 2.35], severe 3.05 [2.96, 3.13]), and deprivation (most deprived compared to least: 1.16 [1.13, 1.19]). Client fall odds decreased post-intervention; OR 0.97 [0.96, 0.97] per quarter. Regional variation existed for falls (5.8%), with most variation at the individual level (31.3%).ConclusionsC&RC identified people more likely to have an emergency fall admission occurring at home, and their service reduced the odds of falling post-intervention. Service provisioning should meet the needs of an individual and need varies by personal and regional circumstance