The Determinants of Technology Adoption by UK Farmers using Bayesian Model Averaging. The Cases of Organic Production and Computer Usage.

We introduce and implement a reversible jump approach to Bayesian Model Averaging for the Probit model with uncertain regressors. This approach provides a direct estimate of the probability that a variable should be included in the model. Two applications are investigated. The �rst is the adoption of organic systems in UK farming, and the second is the in�uence of farm and farmer characteristics on the use of a computer on the farm. While there is a correspondence between the conclusions we would obtain with and without model averaging results, we �find important di¤erences, particularly in smaller samples.Agriculture, Adoption, Model Averaging, Organic, Computer

Integrating spatial dependence into stochastic frontier analysis

An approach to incorporate spatial dependence into Stochastic Frontier analysis is developed and applied to a sample of 215 dairy farms in England and Wales. A number of alternative specifications for the spatial weight matrix are used to analyse the effect of these on the estimation of spatial dependence. Estimation is conducted using a Bayesian approach and results indicate that spatial dependence is present when explaining technical inefficiency.Spatial dependence, technical efficiency, Bayesian, spatial weight matrix

Fish population persistence in hydrologically variable landscapes

Forecasting population persistence in environments subjected to periodic disturbances represents a general challenge for ecologists. In arid and semiarid regions, climate change and human water use pose significant threats to the future persistence of aquatic biota whose populations typically depend on permanent refuge waterholes for their viability. As such, habitats are increasingly being lost as a result of decreasing runoff and increasing water extraction. We constructed a spatially explicit population model for golden perch Macquaria ambigua (Richardson), a native freshwater fish in the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. We then used the model to examine the effects of increased aridity, increased drought frequency, and localized human water extraction on population viability. Consistent with current observations, the model predicted golden perch population persistence under the current climate and levels of water use. Modeled increases in local water extraction greatly increased the risk of population decline, while scenarios of increasing aridity and drought frequency were associated with only minor increases in this risk. We conclude that natural variability in abundances and high turnover rates (extinction/recolonization) of local populations dictate the importance of spatial connectivity and periodic cycles of population growth. Our study also demonstrates an effective way to examine population persistence in intermittent and ephemeral river systems by integrating spatial and temporal dynamics of waterhole persistence with demographic processes (survival, recruitment, and dispersal) within a stochastic modeling framework. The approach can be used to help understand the impacts of natural and anthropogenic drivers, including water resource development, on the viability of biota inhabiting highly dynamic environments

Benefits Transfer and the Aquatic Environment: An Investigation into the Context of Fish Passage Improvement

We present findings from a choice experiment investigating improvements in the aquatic environment from mitigation of barriers to fish passage. Implemented at a local and national level, results reveal positive preferences for increased numbers of fish species as well as fish abundance. In addition, we examine if in this case the willingness to pay estimates are suitable for direct transfer between national and local settings. For both samples, we consider the extent to which stated attribute non-attendance impacts estimates of willingness to pay and the potential ability of researchers to transfer values between contexts. Implications of the use of benefit transfer within this policy context are discussed in light of our findings

Overcoming undesirable resilience in the global food system

The current configuration of our global food system is undermining many of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs), leading to calls for major food system reform and transformation. Concurrently, other science-policy and business initiatives call for a food system more resilient to economic and environmental shocks, for example by improving the economic resilience of current supply chains. Prioritisation of short-term security to a subset of vested interests, however, can undermine the resilience of longer-term beneficial outcomes for society. Here we advocate a more inclusive and farsighted approach focussing on the resilience of positive outcomes for the whole of society, i.e., capturing the aim to promote resilient delivery of multiple UN SDGs. A significant challenge is to prioritise suites of interventions that can effectively transform the global food system to deliver these goals. Here, we use a transdisciplinary lens to identify ‘lock-in’ mechanisms that span four key areas— knowledge-based, economic/regulatory, sociocultural and biophysical constraints –which will help avoid ineffective siloed solutions to food system reform. Furthermore, we show how emergent system dynamics need to be considered using a more holistic approach. We highlight the importance of well-coordinated actions on multiple leverage points during windows of opportunity for food system transformation

Captivating behaviour: mouse models, experimental genetics and reductionist returns in the neurosciences

This a post-print, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in The Sociological Review. Copyright © 2010 Wiley Blackwell. The definitive version is available at www3.interscience.wiley.comNo Abstract availabl

Integrating spatial dependence into stochastic frontier analysis

An approach to incorporate spatial dependence into Stochastic Frontier analysis is developed and applied to a sample of 215 dairy farms in England and Wales. A number of alternative specifications for the spatial weight matrix are used to analyse the effect of these on the estimation of spatial dependence. Estimation is conducted using a Bayesian approach and results indicate that spatial dependence is present when explaining technical inefficiency

Stakeholder perspectives on shale gas fracking: A Q-method study of environmental discourses

The rapid expansion of shale gas exploration worldwide is a significant source of environmental controversy. Successful shale gas policymaking is dependent upon a clear understanding of the dynamics of competing stakeholder perspectives on these issues, and so methods are needed to delineate the areas of agreement and conflict that emerge. This empirical study, based in the United Kingdom, examines emergent perspectives on a range of environmental, health and socio-economic impacts associated with shale gas fracking using Q- methodology: a combined qualitative-quantitative approach. The analysis reveals three typologies of perspectives amongst key industry, civil society and non-affiliated citizen stakeholders; subsequently contextualised in relation to Dryzek’s typology of environmental discourses. These are labelled A) “Don’t trust the fossil fuels industry: campaign for renewables” (mediating between sustainable development and democratic pragmatism discourses); B) “Shale gas is a bridge fuel: economic growth and environmental scepticism” (mediating between economic rationalism and ecological modernisation discourses); and C) “Take place protective action and legislate in the public interest” (reflecting a discourse of administrative rationalism). The implications of these competing discourses for nascent shale gas policy in the UK are discussed in light of recent Government public consultation on changes to national planning policy

Paratransit: the need for a regulatory revolution in the light of institutional inertia

This chapter begins by defining what is traditionally meant by the term 'paratransit', before exploring why it has remained a relatively niche transport concern. Societal trends have shifted to a pattern of demand that is ill-suited to the system design for conventional public transport. Emerging IT applications offer the potential to introduce a new model of public transport appropriate to the travel needs of the 21st century. Paratransit modes are appealing because they could dynamically match the supply of a service with the level of demand required, unlike conventional models of public transport based on fading historical demand patterns. But the regulatory environment for the local passenger sector has been built incrementally over many years around the institutional frameworks for buses and taxis. Paratransit alternatives often do not fully fit under any of these categorisations with the result that they often do not have an institutional home and thus either upset the status quo (as with Uber currently) or else are still born. A redefinition of paratransit is proposed to facilitate a regulatory change to help address the institutional challenges of paratransit innovation