Detection of arbitrarily large dynamic ground motions with a dense high-rate GPS network

We describe the detection of teleseismic surface waves from the 3 November 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake in Alaska with a dense network of 1 Hz GPS stations in southern California, about 3900 km from the event. Relative horizontal displacements with amplitudes in excess of 15 mm and duration of 700 seconds agree with integrated velocities recorded by nearby broadband seismometers with an rms difference of 2–3 mm. The displacements are derived from independent 1 Hz instantaneous positions demonstrating that a GPS network can provide direct measurements of arbitrarily large dynamic and static ground horizontal displacements at periods longer than 1 s and amplitudes above 2 mm, with an inherent precision (signal to noise) that improves indefinitely with amplitude without clipping and in real time. High‐rate, real‐time GPS networks can enhance earthquake detection and seismic risk mitigation and support other applications such as intelligent transportation and civil infrastructure monitoring

SOPAC 2002 IGS Analysis Center Report

The Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center (SOPAC) at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) has been producing precise satellite orbits, Earth Orientation Parameters, and station positions since 1991 when the Permanent GPS Geodetic Array (PGGA) project was initiated in southern California. SOPAC has been an analysis center from the inception of IGS. This report covers the activities between 2000 and 2002, and will focus on SOPAC s GPS analysis strategy, changes in the software/procedure, and a review of some of the results

Paleogeodetic records of seismic and aseismic subduction from central Sumatran microatolls, Indonesia

We utilize coral microatolls in western Sumatra to document vertical deformation associated with subduction. Microatolls are very sensitive to fluctuations in sea level and thus act as natural tide gauges. They record not only the magnitude of vertical deformation associated with earthquakes (paleoseismic data), but also continuously track the long-term aseismic deformation that occurs during the intervals between earthquakes (paleogeodetic data). This paper focuses on the twentieth century paleogeodetic history of the equatorial region. Our coral paleogeodetic record of the 1935 event reveals a classical example of deformations produced by seismic rupture of a shallow subduction interface. The site closest to the trench rose 90 cm, whereas sites further east sank by as much as 35 cm. Our model reproduces these paleogeodetic data with a 2.3 m slip event on the interface 88 to 125 km from the trench axis. Our coral paleogeodetic data reveal slow submergence during the decades before and after the event in the areas of coseismic emergence. Likewise, interseismic emergence occurred before and after the 1935 event in areas of coseismic submergence. Among the interesting phenomenon we have discovered in the coral record is evidence of a large aseismic slip or “silent event” in 1962, 27 years after the 1935 event. Paleogeodetic deformation rates in the decades before, after, and between the 1935 and 1962 events have varied both temporally and spatially. During the 25 years following the 1935 event, submergence rates were dramatically greater than in prior decades. During the past four decades, however, rates have been lower than in the preceding decades, but are still higher than they were prior to 1935. These paleogeodetic records enable us to model the kinematics of the subduction interface throughout the twentieth century

Source parameters of the great Sumatran megathrust earthquakes of 1797 and 1833 inferred from coral microatolls

Large uplifts and tilts occurred on the Sumatran outer arc islands between 0.5° and 3.3°S during great historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833, as judged from relative sea level changes recorded by annually banded coral heads. Coral data for these two earthquakes are most complete along a 160-km length of the Mentawai islands between 3.2° and 2°S. Uplift there was as great as 0.8 m in 1797 and 2.8 m in 1833. Uplift in 1797 extended 370 km, between 3.2° and 0.5°S. The pattern and magnitude of uplift imply megathrust ruptures corresponding to moment magnitudes (M_w) in the range 8.5 to 8.7. The region of uplift in 1833 ranges from 2° to at least 3.2°S and, judging from historical reports of shaking and tsunamis, perhaps as far as 5°S. The patterns and magnitude of uplift and tilt in 1833 are similar to those experienced farther north, between 0.5° and 3°N, during the giant Nias-Simeulue megathrust earthquake of 2005; the outer arc islands rose as much as 3 m and tilted toward the mainland. Elastic dislocation forward modeling of the coral data yields megathrust ruptures with moment magnitudes ranging from 8.6 to 8.9. Sparse accounts at Padang, along the mainland west coast at latitude 1°S, imply tsunami runups of at least 5 m in 1797 and 3–4 m in 1833. Tsunamis simulated from the pattern of coral uplift are roughly consistent with these reports. The tsunami modeling further indicates that the Indian Ocean tsunamis of both 1797 and 1833, unlike that of 2004, were directed mainly south of the Indian subcontinent. Between about 0.7° and 2.1°S, the lack of vintage 1797 and 1833 coral heads in the intertidal zone demonstrates that interseismic submergence has now nearly equals coseismic emergence that accompanied those earthquakes. The interseismic strains accumulated along this reach of the megathrust have thus approached or exceeded the levels relieved in 1797 and 1833

Error analysis of continuous GPS position time series

A total of 954 continuous GPS position time series from 414 individual sites in nine different GPS solutions were analyzed for noise content using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The lengths of the series varied from around 16 months to over 10 years. MLE was used to analyze the data in two ways. In the first analysis the noise was assumed to be white noise only, a combination of white noise plus flicker noise, or a combination of white noise plus random walk noise. For the second analysis the spectral index and amplitude of the power law noise were estimated simultaneously with the white noise. In solutions where the sites were globally distributed, the noise can be best described by a combination of white noise plus flicker noise. Both noise components show latitude dependence in their amplitudes (higher at equatorial sites) together with a bias to larger values in the Southern Hemisphere. In the regional solutions, where a spatially correlated (common mode) signal has been removed, the noise is significantly lower. The spectral index of the power law in regional solutions is more varied than in the global solutions and probably reflects a mixture of local effects. A significant reduction in noise can be seen since the first continuous GPS networks began recording in the early 1990s. A comparison of the noise amplitudes to the different monument types in the Southern California Integrated GPS Network suggests that the deep drill braced monument is preferred for maximum stability

Heterogeneous coupling of the Sumatran megathrust constrained by geodetic and paleogeodetic measurements

Geodetic and paleogeodetic measurements of interseismic strain above the Sumatran portion of the Sunda subduction zone reveal a heterogeneous pattern of coupling. Annual banding in corals provides vertical rates of deformation spanning the last half of the 20th century, and repeated GPS surveys between 1991 and 2001 and continuous measurements at GPS stations operated since 2002 provide horizontal velocities. Near the equator, the megathrust is locked over a narrow width of only a few tens of kilometers. In contrast, the locked fault zone is up to about 175 km wide in areas where great interplate earthquakes have occurred in the past. Formal inversion of the data reveals that these strongly coupled patches are roughly coincident with asperities that ruptured during these events. The correlation is most spectacular for rupture of the M_w 8.7 Nias-Simeulue earthquake of 2005, which released half of the moment deficit that had accumulated since its previous rupture in 1861, suggesting that this earthquake was overdue. Beneath the Mentawai islands, strong coupling is observed within the overlapping rupture areas of the great earthquakes of 1797 and 1833. The accumulated slip deficit since these events is slowly reaching the amount of slip that occurred during the 1833 earthquake but already exceeds the slip that occurred during the 1797 earthquake. Thus, rerupture of part of the Mentawai patch in September 2007 was not a surprise. In contrast, coupling is low below the Batu islands near the equator and around Enggano island at about 5°S, where only moderate earthquakes (M_w < 8.0) have occurred in the past two centuries. The correlation of large seismic asperities with patches that are locked during the interseismic period suggests that they are persistent features. This interpretation is reinforced by the fact that the large locked patches and great ruptures occur beneath persistent geomorphologic features, the largest outer arc islands. Depth- and convergence-rate-dependent temperature might influence the pattern of coupling, through its effect on the rheology of the plate interface, but other influences are required to account for the observed along-strike heterogeneity of coupling. In particular, subduction of the Investigator Fracture Zone could be the cause for the low coupling near the equator

Coseismic Slip and Afterslip of the Great M_w 9.15 Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake of 2004

We determine coseismic and the first-month postseismic deformation associated with the Sumatra–Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 from near- field Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys in northwestern Sumatra and along the Nicobar-Andaman islands, continuous and campaign GPS measurements from Thailand and Malaysia, and in situ and remotely sensed observations of the vertical motion of coral reefs. The coseismic model shows that the Sunda subduction megathrust ruptured over a distance of about 1500 km and a width of less than 150 km, releasing a total moment of 6.7–7.0 x 10^(22) N m, equivalent to a magnitude M_w 9.15. The latitudinal distribution of released moment in our model has three distinct peaks at about 4° N, 7° N, and 9° N, which compares well to the latitudinal variations seen in the seismic inversion and of the analysis of radiated T waves. Our coseismic model is also consistent with interpretation of normal modes and with the amplitude of very-long-period surface waves. The tsunami predicted from this model fits relatively well the altimetric measurements made by the JASON and TOPEX satellites. Neither slow nor delayed slip is needed to explain the normal modes and the tsunami wave. The near-field geodetic data that encompass both coseismic deformation and up to 40 days of postseismic deformation require that slip must have continued on the plate interface after the 500-sec-long seismic rupture. The postseismic geodetic moment of about 2.4 x 10^(22) N m (M_w 8.8) is equal to about 30 ± 5% of the coseismic moment release. Evolution of postseismic deformation is consistent with rate-strengthening frictional afterslip

The Sumatra subduction zone: A case for a locked fault zone extending into the mantle

A current view is that the portion of the subduction interface that remains locked in the time interval between large interplate earthquakes, hereinafter referred to as the locked fault zone (LFZ), does not extend into the mantle because serpentinization of the mantle wedge would favor stable aseismic sliding. Here, we test this view in the case of the Sumatra subduction zone where the downdip end of the LFZ can be well constrained from the pattern and rate of uplift deduced from coral growth and from GPS measurements of horizontal deformation. These geodetic data are modeled from a creeping dislocation embedded in an elastic half-space and indicate that the LFZ extends 132 ± 10/7 km from the trench, to a depth between 35 and 57 km. By combining this information with the geometry of the plate interface as constrained from two-dimensional gravimetric modeling and seismicity, we show that the LFZ extends below the forearc Moho, which is estimated to lie at a depth of ~30 km, at a horizontal distance of 110 km from the trench. So, in this particular island arc setting, the LFZ most probably extends into the mantle, implying that either the mantle is not serpentinized, or that the presence of serpentine does not necessarily imply stable sliding. From thermal modeling, the temperature at the downdip end of the LFZ is estimated to be 260 ± 100°C. This temperature seems too low for thermally activated ductile flow, so that aseismic slip is most probably due to pressure and/or temperature induced steady state brittle sliding, possibly favored by fluids released from the subducting slab

Persistent elastic behavior above a megathrust rupture patch: Nias island, West Sumatra

We quantify fore-arc deformation using fossil reefs to test the assumption commonly made in seismic cycle models that anelastic deformation of the fore arc is negligible. Elevated coral microatolls, paleoreef flats, and chenier plains show that the Sumatran outer arc island of Nias has experienced a complex pattern of relatively slow long-term uplift and subsidence during the Holocene epoch. This same island rose up to 2.9 m during the Mw 8.7 Sunda megathrust rupture in 2005. The mismatch between the 2005 and Holocene uplift patterns, along with the overall low rates of Holocene deformation, reflects the dominance of elastic strain accumulation and release along this section of the Sunda outer arc high and the relatively subordinate role of upper plate deformation in accommodating long-term plate convergence. The fraction of 2005 uplift that will be retained permanently is generally <4% for sites that experienced more than 0.25 m of coseismic uplift. Average uplift rates since the mid-Holocene range from 1.5 to −0.2 mm/a and are highest on the eastern coast of Nias, where coseismic uplift was nearly zero in 2005. The pattern of long-term uplift and subsidence is consistent with slow deformation of Nias along closely spaced folds in the north and trenchward dipping back thrusts in the southeast. Low Holocene tectonic uplift rates provide for excellent geomorphic and stratigraphic preservation of the mid-Holocene relative sea level high, which was under way by ∼7.3 ka and persisted until ∼2 ka

Plate interaction in the NE Caribbean subduction zone from continuous GPS observations

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L10304, doi:10.1029/2012GL051485.Kinematic similarities between the Sumatra and Puerto Rico Trenches highlight the potential for a mega-earthquake along the Puerto Rico Trench and the generation of local and trans-Atlantic tsunamis. We used the horizontal components of continuous GPS (cGPS) measurements from 10 sites on NE Caribbean islands to evaluate strain accumulation along the North American (NA) – Caribbean (CA) plate boundary. These sites move westward and slightly northward relative to CA interior at rates ≤2.5 mm/y. Provided this motion originates in the subduction interface, the northward motion suggests little or no trench-perpendicular thrust accumulation and may in fact indicate divergence north of Puerto Rico, where abnormal subsidence, bathymetry, and gravity are observed. The Puerto Rico Trench, thus, appears unable to generate mega-earthquakes, but damaging smaller earthquakes cannot be discounted. The westward motion, characterized by decreasing rate with distance from the trench, is probably due to eastward motion of CA plate impeded at the plate boundary by the Bahamas platform. Two additional cGPS sites in Mona Passage and SW Puerto Rico move to the SW similar to Hispaniola and unlike the other 10 sites. That motion relative to the rest of Puerto Rico may have given rise to seismicity and normal faults in Mona Rift, Mona Passage, and SW Puerto Rico