A Prototype Decision Support Tool for Ballast Water Risk Management using a Combination of Hydrodynamic Models and Agent-Based Modelling

We report the development of a prototype Decision Support Tool (DST) for modelling the risks of spreading of non-indegenous invasive species via ballast water. The DST constitutes of two types of models: A 3D hydrodynamical model calculates the currents in the North Sea and Danish Straits, and an agent-based model estimates the dispersal of selected model organisms with the prevailing currents calculated by the 3D hydrodynamical model. The analysis is concluded by a post processing activity, where scenarios of dispersal are combined into an interim estimate of connectivity within the study area. The latter can be used as a tool for assessment of potential risk associated with intentional or unintentional discharges of ballast water. We discuss how this prototype DST can be used for ballast water risk management and outline other functions and uses, e.g. in regard to ecosystem-based management and the implementation of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive.https://commons.wmu.se/nsbwo/1001/thumbnail.jp

G = MAT: Linking Transcription Factor Expression and DNA Binding Data

Transcription factors are proteins that bind to motifs on the DNA and thus affect gene expression regulation. The qualitative description of the corresponding processes is therefore important for a better understanding of essential biological mechanisms. However, wet lab experiments targeted at the discovery of the regulatory interplay between transcription factors and binding sites are expensive. We propose a new, purely computational method for finding putative associations between transcription factors and motifs. This method is based on a linear model that combines sequence information with expression data. We present various methods for model parameter estimation and show, via experiments on simulated data, that these methods are reliable. Finally, we examine the performance of this model on biological data and conclude that it can indeed be used to discover meaningful associations. The developed software is available as a web tool and Scilab source code at http://biit.cs.ut.ee/gmat/

Randomized controlled phase 2 trial of hydroxychloroquine in childhood interstitial lung disease

Background No results of controlled trials are available for any of the few treatments offered to children with interstitial lung diseases (chILD). We evaluated hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in a phase 2, prospective, multicentre, 1:1-randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group/crossover trial. HCQ (START arm) or placebo were given for 4 weeks. Then all subjects received HCQ for another 4 weeks. In the STOP arm subjects already taking HCQ were randomized to 12 weeks of HCQ or placebo (= withdrawal of HCQ). Then all subjects stopped treatment and were observed for another 12 weeks. Results 26 subjects were included in the START arm, 9 in the STOP arm, of these four subjects participated in both arms. The primary endpoint, presence or absence of a response to treatment, assessed as oxygenation (calculated from a change in transcutaneous O 2 -saturation of ≥ 5%, respiratory rate ≥ 20% or level of respiratory support), did not differ between placebo and HCQ groups. Secondary endpoints including change of O 2 -saturation ≥ 3%, health related quality of life, pulmonary function and 6-min-walk-test distance, were not different between groups. Finally combining all placebo and all HCQ treatment periods did not identify significant treatment effects. Overall effect sizes were small. HCQ was well tolerated, adverse events were not different between placebo and HCQ. Conclusions Acknowledging important shortcomings of the study, including a small study population, the treatment duration, lack of outcomes like lung function testing below age of 6 years, the small effect size of HCQ treatment observed requires careful reassessments of prescriptions in everyday practice (EudraCT-Nr.: 2013-003714-40, www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu , registered 02.07.2013)

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

Ristola M. on työryhmien DAD Study Grp ; Royal Free Hosp Clin Cohort ; INSIGHT Study Grp ; SMART Study Grp ; ESPRIT Study Grp jäsen.Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with >= 3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1: 393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score = 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.Peer reviewe

Probleme von Begriffsbildung und -verwendung in der Kommunikationswissenschaft

Die Exklusivität der Beziehung zwischen einem sprachlichen Ausdruck und einem damit bezeichneten Objekt ist von wesentlicher Bedeutung für die Funktionalität von (Fach-)Sprachen, doch liegt sie bei vielen in der Kommunikationswissenschaft verwendeten Begriffen nicht (mehr) vor. Im Folgenden werden die Konsequenzen der Mehrdeutigkeit vieler kommunikationswissenschaftlicher Begriffe diskutiert sowie auch die Prozesse, welche dazu führen, dass häufig ein Begriff mehrere unterschiedliche Konstrukte bezeichnet. Abschließend werden Wege aufgezeigt, wie das Fach zu einer stärkeren Eindeutigkeit der Begriffe gelangen kann

Syndicats et classes moyennes à l'époque de Weimar

Potthof Heinrich. Syndicats et classes moyennes à l'époque de Weimar. In: Matériaux pour l'histoire de notre temps, n°17, 1989. Socialisme et classes moyennes en France et en Allemagne dans l'entre-deux-guerres, sous la direction de René Girault . pp. 36-41