38 research outputs found

    Stochastic Dominance Analysis of CTA Funds

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    In this paper, we employ the stochastic dominance approach to rank the performance of commodity trading advisors (CTA) funds. An advantage of this approach is that it alleviates the problems that can arise if CTA returns are not normally distributed by utilizing the entire returns distribution. We find both first-order and higher-order stochastic dominance relationships amongst the CTA funds and conclude that investors would be better off investing in the first-order dominant funds to maximize their expected utilities and expected wealth. However, for higher-order dominant CTA, riskaverse investors can maximize their expected utilities but not their expected wealth. We conclude that the stochastic dominance approach is more appropriate compared with traditional approaches as a filter in the CTA selection process given that a meaningful economic interpretation of the results is possible as the entire return distribution is utilized when returns are non-normal

    Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

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    BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

    Iron Behaving Badly: Inappropriate Iron Chelation as a Major Contributor to the Aetiology of Vascular and Other Progressive Inflammatory and Degenerative Diseases

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    The production of peroxide and superoxide is an inevitable consequence of aerobic metabolism, and while these particular "reactive oxygen species" (ROSs) can exhibit a number of biological effects, they are not of themselves excessively reactive and thus they are not especially damaging at physiological concentrations. However, their reactions with poorly liganded iron species can lead to the catalytic production of the very reactive and dangerous hydroxyl radical, which is exceptionally damaging, and a major cause of chronic inflammation. We review the considerable and wide-ranging evidence for the involvement of this combination of (su)peroxide and poorly liganded iron in a large number of physiological and indeed pathological processes and inflammatory disorders, especially those involving the progressive degradation of cellular and organismal performance. These diseases share a great many similarities and thus might be considered to have a common cause (i.e. iron-catalysed free radical and especially hydroxyl radical generation). The studies reviewed include those focused on a series of cardiovascular, metabolic and neurological diseases, where iron can be found at the sites of plaques and lesions, as well as studies showing the significance of iron to aging and longevity. The effective chelation of iron by natural or synthetic ligands is thus of major physiological (and potentially therapeutic) importance. As systems properties, we need to recognise that physiological observables have multiple molecular causes, and studying them in isolation leads to inconsistent patterns of apparent causality when it is the simultaneous combination of multiple factors that is responsible. This explains, for instance, the decidedly mixed effects of antioxidants that have been observed, etc...Comment: 159 pages, including 9 Figs and 2184 reference

    Defining and simulating open-ended novelty: requirements, guidelines, and challenges

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    The open-endedness of a system is often defined as a continual production of novelty. Here we pin down this concept more fully by defining several types of novelty that a system may exhibit, classified as variation, innovation, and emergence. We then provide a meta-model for including levels of structure in a system’s model. From there, we define an architecture suitable for building simulations of open-ended novelty-generating systems and discuss how previously proposed systems fit into this framework. We discuss the design principles applicable to those systems and close with some challenges for the community

    Dengue-2 and yellow fever 17DD viruses infect human dendritic cells, resulting in an induction of activation markers, cytokines and chemokines and secretion of different TNF-α and IFN-α profiles

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    Flaviviruses cause severe acute febrile and haemorrhagic infections, including dengue and yellow fever and the pathogenesis of these infections is caused by an exacerbated immune response. Dendritic cells (DCs) are targets for dengue virus (DENV) and yellow fever virus (YF) replication and are the first cell population to interact with these viruses during a natural infection, which leads to an induction of protective immunity in humans. We studied the infectivity of DENV2 (strain 16681), a YF vaccine (YF17DD) and a chimeric YF17D/DENV2 vaccine in monocyte-derived DCs in vitro with regard to cell maturation, activation and cytokine production. Higher viral antigen positive cell frequencies were observed for DENV2 when compared with both vaccine viruses. Flavivirus-infected cultures exhibited dendritic cell activation and maturation molecules. CD38 expression on DCs was enhanced for both DENV2 and YF17DD, whereas OX40L expression was decreased as compared to mock-stimulated cells, suggesting that a T helper 1 profile is favoured. Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α production in cell cultures was significantly higher in DENV2-infected cultures than in cultures infected with YF17DD or YF17D/DENV. In contrast, the vaccines induced higher IFN-α levels than DENV2. The differential cytokine production indicates that DENV2 results in TNF induction, which discriminates it from vaccine viruses that preferentially stimulate interferon expression. These differential response profiles may influence the pathogenic infection outcome
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