The mechanisms and processes of connection: developing a causal chain model capturing impacts of receiving recorded mental health recovery narratives.

BACKGROUND: Mental health recovery narratives are a core component of recovery-oriented interventions such as peer support and anti-stigma campaigns. A substantial number of recorded recovery narratives are now publicly available online in different modalities and in published books. Whilst the benefits of telling one's story have been investigated, much less is known about how recorded narratives of differing modalities impact on recipients. A previous qualitative study identified connection to the narrator and/or to events in the narrative to be a core mechanism of change. The factors that influence how individuals connect with a recorded narrative are unknown. The aim of the current study was to characterise the immediate effects of receiving recovery narratives presented in a range of modalities (text, video and audio), by establishing the mechanisms of connection and the processes by which connection leads to outcomes. METHOD: A study involving 40 mental health service users in England was conducted. Participants were presented with up to 10 randomly-selected recovery narratives and were interviewed on the immediate impact of each narrative. Thematic analysis was used to identify the mechanisms of connection and how connection leads to outcome. RESULTS: Receiving a recovery narrative led participants to reflect upon their own experiences or those of others, which then led to connection through three mechanisms: comparing oneself with the narrative and narrator; learning about other's experiences; and experiencing empathy. These mechanisms led to outcomes through three processes: the identification of change (through attending to narrative structure); the interpretation of change (through attending to narrative content); and the internalisation of interpretations. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to identify mechanisms and processes of connection with recorded recovery narratives. The empirically-based causal chain model developed in this study describes the immediate effects on recipients. This model can inform selection of narratives for use in interventions, and be used to support peer support workers in recounting their own recovery narratives in ways which are maximally beneficial to others

External validation and adaptation of a dynamic prediction model for patients with high‐grade extremity soft tissue sarcoma

Background and Objectives: A dynamic prediction model for patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities was previously developed to predict updated overall survival probabilities throughout patient follow‐up. This study updates and externally validates the dynamic model. Methods: Data from 3826 patients with high‐grade extremity soft tissue sarcoma, treated surgically with curative intent were used to update the dynamic PERsonalised SARcoma Care (PERSARC) model. Patients were added to the model development cohort and grade was included in the model. External validation was performed with data from 1111 patients treated at a single tertiary center. Results: Calibration plots show good model calibration. Dynamic C‐indices suggest that the model can discriminate between high‐ and low‐risk patients. The dynamic C‐indices at 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after surgery were equal to 0.697, 0.790, 0.822, 0.818, 0.812, and 0.827, respectively. Conclusion: Results from the external validation show that the dynamic PERSARC model is reliable in predicting the probability of surviving an additional 5 years from a specific prediction time point during follow‐up. The model combines patient‐, treatment‐specific and time‐dependent variables such as local recurrence and distant metastasis to provide accurate survival predictions throughout follow‐up and is available through the PERSARC app.Peer reviewe

Transmission patterns of smallpox: systematic review of natural outbreaks in Europe and North America since World War II

BACKGROUND: Because smallpox (variola major) may be used as a biological weapon, we reviewed outbreaks in post-World War II Europe and North America in order to understand smallpox transmission patterns. METHODS: A systematic review was used to identify papers from the National Library of Medicine, Embase, Biosis, Cochrane Library, Defense Technical Information Center, WorldCat, and reference lists of included publications. Two authors reviewed selected papers for smallpox outbreaks. RESULTS: 51 relevant outbreaks were identified from 1,389 publications. The median for the effective first generation reproduction rate (initial R) was 2 (range 0–38). The majority outbreaks were small (less than 5 cases) and contained within one generation. Outbreaks with few hospitalized patients had low initial R values (median of 1) and were prolonged if not initially recognized (median of 3 generations); outbreaks with mostly hospitalized patients had higher initial R values (median 12) and were shorter (median of 3 generations). Index cases with an atypical presentation of smallpox were less likely to have been diagnosed with smallpox; outbreaks in which the index case was not correctly diagnosed were larger (median of 27.5 cases) and longer (median of 3 generations) compared to outbreaks in which the index case was correctly diagnosed (median of 3 cases and 1 generation). CONCLUSION: Patterns of spread during Smallpox outbreaks varied with circumstances, but early detection and implementation of control measures is a most important influence on the magnitude of outbreaks. The majority of outbreaks studied in Europe and North America were controlled within a few generations if detected early

Age-related differences of oncological outcomes in primary extremity soft tissue sarcoma: a multistate model including 6260 patients

Purpose: No studies extensively compared the young adults (YA, 18-39 years), middle-aged (40-69 years), and elderly (≥70 years) population with primary high-grade extremity soft tissue sarcoma (eSTS). This study aimed to determine whether the known effect of age on overall survival (OS) and disease progression can be explained by differences in tumour characteristics and treatment protocol among the YA, middle-aged and elderly population in patients with primary high-grade eSTS treated with curative intent. Methods: In this retrospective multicentre study, inclusion criteria were patients with primary high-grade eSTS of 18 years and older, surgically treated with curative intent between 2000 and 2016. Cox proportional hazard models and a multistate model were used to determine the association of age on OS and disease progression. Results: A total of 6260 patients were included in this study. YA presented more often after 'whoops'-surgery or for reresection due to residual disease, and with more deep-seated tumours. Elderly patients presented more often with grade III and larger (≥10 cm) tumours. After adjustment for the imbalance in tumour and treatment characteristics the hazard ratio for OS of the middle-aged population is 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23-1.76) and 3.13 (95% CI: 2.59-3.78) in the elderly population, compared with YA. Discussion: The effect of age on OS could only partially be explained by the imbalance in the tumour characteristics and treatment variables. The threefold higher risk of elderly could, at least partially, be explained by a higher other-cause mortality. The results might also be explained by a different tumour behaviour or suboptimal treatment in elderly compared with the younger population. Keywords: Adolescents and young adults; Elderly; Extremities; Metastasis; Middle-aged; Recurrence; Soft tissue sarcoma; Survival.Peer reviewe

The T1405N Carbamoyl Phosphate Synthetase Polymorphism Does Not Affect Plasma Arginine Concentrations in Preterm Infants

A C-to-A nucleotide transversion (T1405N) in the gene that encodes carbamoyl-phosphate synthetase 1 (CPS1) has been associated with changes in plasma concentrations of L-arginine in term and near term infants but not in adults. In preterm infants homozygosity for the CPS1 Thr1405 variant (CC genotype) was associated with an increased risk of having necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). Plasma L-arginine concentrations are decreased in preterm infants with NEC.To examine the putative association between the CPS1 T1405N polymorphism and plasma arginine concentrations in preterm infants.Prospective multicenter cohort study. Plasma and DNA samples were collected from 128 preterm infants (<30 weeks) between 6 and 12 hours after birth. Plasma amino acid and CPS1 T1405N polymorphism analysis were performed.Distribution of genotypes did not differ between the preterm (CC:CA:AA = 55.5%:33.6%:10.9%, n = 128) and term infants (CC:CA:AA = 54.2%:35.4%:10.4%, n = 96). There was no association between the CPS1 genotype and plasma L-arginine or L-citrulline concentration, or the ornithine to citrulline ratio, which varies inversely with CPS1 activity. Also the levels of asymmetric dimethylarginine, and symmetric dimethylarginine were not significantly different among the three genotypes.The present study in preterm infants did not confirm the earlier reported association between CPS1 genotype and L-arginine levels in term infants

A strong conditional mutualism limits and enhances seed dispersal and germination of a tropical palm

Seed predation and seed dispersal can have strong effects on early life history stages of plants. These processes have often been studied as individual effects, but the degree to which their relative importance co-varies with seed predator abundance and how this influences seed germination rates is poorly understood. Therefore, we used a combination of observations and field experiments to determine the degree to which germination rates of the palm Astrocaryum mexicanum varied with abundance of a small mammal seed predator/disperser, Heteromysdesmarestianus, in a lowland tropical forest. Patterns of abundance of the two species were strongly related; density of H. desmarestianus was low in sites with low density of A. mexicanum and vice versa. Rates of predation and dispersal of A. mexicanum seeds depended on abundance of H. desmarestianus; sites with high densities of H. desmarestianus had the highest rates of seed predation and lowest rates of seed germination, but a greater total number of seeds were dispersed and there was greater density of seedlings, saplings, and adults of A. mexicanum in these sites. When abundance of H. desmarestianus was experimentally reduced, rates of seed predation decreased, but so did dispersal of A. mexicanum seeds. Critically, rates of germination of dispersed seeds were 5 times greater than undispersed seeds. The results suggest that the relationship between A. mexicanum and H. desmarestianus is a conditional mutualism that results in a strong local effect on the abundance of each species. However, the magnitude and direction of these effects are determined by the relative strength of opposing, but related, mechanisms. A. mexicanum nuts provide H. desmarestianus with a critical food resource, and while seed predation on A. mexicanum nuts by H. desmarestianus is very intense, A. mexicanum ultimately benefits because of the relatively high germination rates of its seeds that are dispersed by H. desmarestianus

Phylogenetic Dependency Networks: Inferring Patterns of CTL Escape and Codon Covariation in HIV-1 Gag

HIV avoids elimination by cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) through the evolution of escape mutations. Although there is mounting evidence that these escape pathways are broadly consistent among individuals with similar human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I alleles, previous population-based studies have been limited by the inability to simultaneously account for HIV codon covariation, linkage disequilibrium among HLA alleles, and the confounding effects of HIV phylogeny when attempting to identify HLA-associated viral evolution. We have developed a statistical model of evolution, called a phylogenetic dependency network, that accounts for these three sources of confounding and identifies the primary sources of selection pressure acting on each HIV codon. Using synthetic data, we demonstrate the utility of this approach for identifying sites of HLA-mediated selection pressure and codon evolution as well as the deleterious effects of failing to account for all three sources of confounding. We then apply our approach to a large, clinically-derived dataset of Gag p17 and p24 sequences from a multicenter cohort of 1144 HIV-infected individuals from British Columbia, Canada (predominantly HIV-1 clade B) and Durban, South Africa (predominantly HIV-1 clade C). The resulting phylogenetic dependency network is dense, containing 149 associations between HLA alleles and HIV codons and 1386 associations among HIV codons. These associations include the complete reconstruction of several recently defined escape and compensatory mutation pathways and agree with emerging data on patterns of epitope targeting. The phylogenetic dependency network adds to the growing body of literature suggesting that sites of escape, order of escape, and compensatory mutations are largely consistent even across different clades, although we also identify several differences between clades. As recent case studies have demonstrated, understanding both the complexity and the consistency of immune escape has important implications for CTL-based vaccine design. Phylogenetic dependency networks represent a major step toward systematically expanding our understanding of CTL escape to diverse populations and whole viral genes

Discovery of very high energy gamma-ray emission coincident with molecular clouds in the W28 (G6.4-0.1) field

We observed the W28 field (for ~40 h) at Very High Energy (VHE) gamma-ray energies (E>0.1 TeV) with the H.E.S.S. Cherenkov telescopes. A reanalysis of EGRET E>100 MeV data was also undertaken. Results from the NANTEN 4m telescope Galactic plane survey and other CO observations have been used to study molecular clouds. We have discovered VHE gamma-ray emission (HESSJ1801-233) coincident with the northeastern boundary of W28, and a complex of sources (HESSJ1800-240A, B and C) ~0.5 deg south of W28, in the Galactic disc. The VHE differential photon spectra are well fit by pure power laws with indices Gamma~2.3 to 2.7. The NANTEN ^{12}CO(J=1-0) data reveal molecular clouds positionally associating with the VHE emission, spanning a ~15 km s^{-1} range in local standard of rest velocity. The VHE/molecular cloud association could indicate a hadronic origin for HESSJ1801-233 and HESSJ1800-240, and several cloud components in projection may contribute to the VHE emission. The clouds have components covering a broad velocity range encompassing the distance estimates for W28 (~2 kpc), and extending up to ~4 kpc. Assuming a hadronic origin, and distances of 2 and 4 kpc for cloud components, the required cosmic ray density enhancement factors (with respect to the solar value) are in the range ~10 to ~30. If situated at 2 kpc distance, such cosmic ray densities may be supplied by a SNR like W28. Additionally and/or alternatively, particle acceleration may come from several catalogued SNRs and SNR candidates, the energetic ultra compact HII region W28A2, and the HII regions M8 and M20 along with their associated open clusters. Further sub-mm observations would be recommended to probe in detail the dynamics of the molecular clouds at velocites >10 km s^{-1}, and their possible connection to W28.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics. (Abstract shortened