Survival Analysis of Dialysis Patients Under Parametric and Non-Parametric Approaches

Dialysis is a recommended way of treatment for end stage kidney diseases and it provides a life saving procedure. Transplantation can also be useful source but it is restricted by financial limitations especially in developing countries like Pakistan. Censoring is an important part of the survival data which causes insensitivity to the usual procedures of analysis. A little work has been done in literature regarding the estimated survival time of dialysis patients in Pakistan. So, this study has estimated the median survival time of male/females patients separately by parametric and non-parametric approaches. Moreover, comparison of survival time to patients (50 years) was also compared. Frequently, in modeling the survival data, most of the time we have no prior information about the theoretical distribution of survival time is available, that’s why, and non-parametric methods are commonly used. The significance of this study is the fitting of probability distribution of real life time data of dialysis patients which is not done before. It is very laborious job to fit an appropriate distribution of the data. We find that the probability distribution of our real life time data is weibull distribution. Finding suggested that the Kaplan-Meier method and weibull model based on Anderson-Darling test provided a very close estimate of the survival function in both genders and age groups. On the average survival time in males is relatively high but not statistically different from females

A dipole sub-array with reduced mutual coupling for large antenna array applications

The use of large array antennas in multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) exploits diversity and reduces the overall transmission power making it a key enabling technology for 5G. Despite all the benefits, mutual coupling (MC) between elements in these array antennas is a concerning issue as it affects the antenna terminal impedance, reflection coefficients, etc. In this paper, a four-element printed dipole sub-array with reduced MC for S-band has been proposed. A balanced transmission line structure has been designed with two dipole arms on the opposite side of the substrate. Simulated and measured results are in good agreement making the design suitable for large array applications such as phased array radars. The proposed array exhibits good impedance matching with a reflection coefficient of -45 dB and resonating at the center frequency of 2.8 GHz. Moreover, isolation of -20 dB has been achieved for each element in a 2×2 planar array structure using out of band, parasitic elements, and planar shift by distributing the separation between the elements

Impact of Cover Crop Monocultures and Mixtures on Organic Carbon Contents of Soil Aggregates

Cover crops are considered an integral component of agroecosystems because of their positive impacts on biotic and abiotic indicators of soil health. At present, we know little about the impact of cover crop types and diversity on the organic carbon (OC) contents of different soil aggregate-size classes. In this study, we investigated the effect of cover plant diversity on OC contents of different soil aggregates, such as macro- (\u3c2000–500 µm), meso- (\u3c500–250 µm), and micro-aggregates (\u3c250 µm). Our experiment included a total of 12 experimental treatments in triplicate; six different monoculture treatments such as chickling vetch (Vicia villosa), crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum), hairy vetch (Vicia villosa), field peas (Pisum sativum), oilseed radish (Raphanus sativus), and mighty mustard (Brassica juncea), and their three- and six-species mixture treatments, including one unplanted control treatment. We performed this experiment usingdeep pots that contained soil collected from a corn-soybean rotation field. At vegetative maturity of cover plants (about 70 days), we took soil samples, and the soil aggregate-size classes were separated by the dry sieving. We hypothesized that cover crop type and diversity will improve OC contents of different soil aggregate-size classes. We found that cover plant species richness weakly positively increased OC contents of soil macro-aggregates (p = 0.056), whereas other aggregate-size classes did not respond to cover crop diversity gradient. Similarly, the OC contents of macroaggregates varied significantly (p = 0.013) under cover crop treatments, though neither monoculture nor mixture treatments showed significantly higher OC contents than the control treatment in this short-term experiment. Interestingly, the inclusion of hairy vetch and oilseed radish increased and decreased the OC contents of macro- and micro-aggregates, respectively. Moreover, we found a positive correlation between shoot biomass and OC contents of macroaggregates. Overall, our results suggest that species-rich rather than -poor communities may improve OC contents of soil macroaggregates, which constitute a major portion of soil systems, and are also considered as important indicators of soil functions

A comprehensive review on Gossypium hirsutum resistance against cotton leaf curl virus

Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is a significant fiber crop. Being a major contributor to the textile industry requires continuous care and attention. Cotton is subjected to various biotic and abiotic constraints. Among these, biotic factors including cotton leaf curl virus (CLCuV) are dominant. CLCuV is a notorious disease of cotton and is acquired, carried, and transmitted by the whitefly (Bemisia tabaci). A cotton plant affected with CLCuV may show a wide range of symptoms such as yellowing of leaves, thickening of veins, upward or downward curling, formation of enations, and stunted growth. Though there are many efforts to protect the crop from CLCuV, long-term results are not yet obtained as CLCuV strains are capable of mutating and overcoming plant resistance. However, systemic-induced resistance using a gene-based approach remained effective until new virulent strains of CLCuV (like Cotton Leaf Curl Burewala Virus and others) came into existence. Disease control by biological means and the development of CLCuV-resistant cotton varieties are in progress. In this review, we first discussed in detail the evolution of cotton and CLCuV strains, the transmission mechanism of CLCuV, the genetic architecture of CLCuV vectors, and the use of pathogen and nonpathogen-based approaches to control CLCuD. Next, we delineate the uses of cutting-edge technologies like genome editing (with a special focus on CRISPR-Cas), next-generation technologies, and their application in cotton genomics and speed breeding to develop CLCuD resistant cotton germplasm in a short time. Finally, we delve into the current obstacles related to cotton genome editing and explore forthcoming pathways for enhancing precision in genome editing through the utilization of advanced genome editing technologies. These endeavors aim to enhance cotton’s resilience against CLCuD

Microbial biotransformation of beclomethasone dipropionate by Aspergillus niger

In the present research, the steroidal anti-asthmatic drug beclomethasone dipropionate was subjected to microbial biotransformation by Aspergillus niger. Beclomethasone dipropionate was transformed into various metabolites first time from microbial transformation. New drug metabolites produced can act as new potential drug molecules and can replace the old drugs in terms of safety, efficacy, and least resistance. They were purified by preparative thin layer chromatography technique, and their structures were elucidated using modern spectroscopic techniques, such as 13C NMR, 1H NMR, HMQC, HMQC, COSY, and NOESY, and mass spectrometry, such as EI-MS. Four metabolites were purified: (i) beclomethasone 17-monopropionate, (ii) beclomethasone 21-monopropionate, (iii) beclomethasone, and (iv) 9beta,11beta-epoxy-17,21-dihydroxy-16beta-methylpregna-1,4-diene-3,20-dione 21-propionate

A comparison of four fibrosis indexes in chronic HCV: Development of new fibrosis-cirrhosis index (FCI)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatitis C can lead to liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. We compared readily available non-invasive fibrosis indexes for the fibrosis progression discrimination to find a better combination of existing non-invasive markers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied 157 HCV infected patients who underwent liver biopsy. In order to differentiate HCV fibrosis progression, readily available AAR, APRI, FI and FIB-4 serum indexes were tested in the patients. We derived a new fibrosis-cirrhosis index (FCI) comprised of ALP, bilirubin, serum albumin and platelet count. FCI = [(ALP × Bilirubin) / (Albumin × Platelet count)].</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Already established serum indexes AAR, APRI, FI and FIB-4 were able to stage liver fibrosis with correlation coefficient indexes 0.130, 0.444, 0.578 and 0.494, respectively. Our new fibrosis cirrhosis index FCI significantly correlated with the histological fibrosis stages F0-F1, F2-F3 and F4 (r = 0.818, p < 0.05) with AUROCs 0.932 and 0.996, respectively. The sensitivity and PPV of FCI at a cutoff value < 0.130 for predicting fibrosis stage F0-F1 was 81% and 82%, respectively with AUROC 0.932. Corresponding value of FCI at a cutoff value ≥1.25 for the prediction of cirrhosis was 86% and 100%.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The fibrosis-cirrhosis index (FCI) accurately predicted fibrosis stages in HCV infected patients and seems more efficient than frequently used serum indexes.</p

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030