Data from the GIPEyOP online election poll for the 2015 Spanish General election

The general elections of 2015 in Spain took place in the middle of the Great Recession after several years of austerity eco- nomic policies. This election caused a political earthquake that shook the Spanish party system. During the campaign of that election, GIPEyOP (Elections and Public Opinion Research Group from University of Valencia) conducted a survey to collect relevant data about the electorate beliefs, intentions and motivations. This article describes the data set attained, which comprises 71 variables after removing, to en- sure full anonymity, those variables that would potentially allow respondents to be identified. Respondents answered a self-administered online questionnaire and were recruited using chain sampling. A total of 14,261 valid observations were collected between 27 th November and 18 th December 2015. GIPEyOP employed the data collected up to 14 th December to deliver a prediction of the election outcomes dur- ing that election campaign. Among other issues, this data set may be reused to assess theories of expectations' formation, to spot how social networks spread geographically and to measure gender, age and education technological gap of the Spanish population

Field rules and bias in random surveys with quota samples. An assessment of CIS surveys

Surveys applying quota sampling in their final step are widely used in opinion and market research all over the world. This is also the case in Spain, where the surveys carried out by CIS (a public institution for sociological research supported by the government) have become a point of reference. The rules used by CIS to select individuals within quotas, however, could be improved as they lead to biases in age distributions. Analysing more than 545,000 responses collected in the 220 monthly barometers conducted between 1997 and 2016 by CIS, we compare the empirical distributions of the barometers with the expected distributions from the sample design and/or target populations. Among other results, we find, as a consequence of the rules used, significant overrepresentations in the observed proportions of respondents with ages equal to the minimum and maximum of each quota (age and gender group). Furthermore, in line with previous literature, we also note a significant overrepresentation of ages ending in zero. After offering simple solutions to avoid all these biases, we discuss some of their consequences for modelling and inference and about limitations and potentialities of CIS data.Peer Reviewe

Hacia una autodefinición de naturalismo

Naturalism is the philosophical thesis that holds the following assumptions: the rejection of the supernatural and the transcendent; the acceptance of science as knowledge of high epistemic value, for some philosophers it is the only valid knowledge, and the rejection of all first or a priori philosophy. The problem addressed is that prima facie it seems problematic to explain the theses of naturalism without violating some of its assumptions. This paper will show that, starting from liberal naturalism and the notions of niche construction, as well as some theses of the articulation of thought through language, it is possible to define naturalism without defending premises that violate its methodology.El naturalismo es la tesis filosófica que sostiene los siguientes supuestos: el rechazo a lo sobrenatural y a lo trascendente; la aceptación de la ciencia como un conocimiento de alto valor epistémico, para algunos se trata del único conocimiento válido, y el rechazo a toda filosofía primera o a priori. El problema que se aborda es que prima facie parece problemático explicar las tesis del naturalismo sin violar alguno de sus supuestos. En el presente trabajo se mostrará que, partiendo del naturalismo liberal y de las nociones de construcción de nichos, así como de algunas tesis de la articulación del pensamiento a través del lenguaje, es posible definir el naturalismo sin acudir a premisas que violen su metodología

Prevalence and clinical outcomes of dystrophin-associated dilated cardiomyopathy without severe skeletal myopathy.

AIMS: Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) associated with dystrophin gene (DMD) mutations in individuals with mild or absent skeletal myopathy are often indistinguishable from other DCM forms. We sought to describe the phenotype and prognosis of DMD associated DCM in DMD mutation carriers without severe skeletal myopathy. METHODS AND RESULTS: At 26 European centers, we retrospectively collected clinical characteristics and outcomes of 223 DMD mutation carriers (83% males, 33±15 years). 112 individuals (52%) had DCM at first evaluation (n=85; LVEF=34±11.2%) or developed DCM (n=27; LVEF 41.3±7.5%) after a median follow-up of 96 months (IQR: 5-311 months). DCM penetrance was 45% in carriers older than 40 years. DCM appeared earlier in males and was independent of the type of mutation, presence of skeletal myopathy, or elevated serum creatine kinase levels. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) occurred in 22% individuals with DCM, 18% developed end-stage heart failure and 9% SCD or equivalent. Skeletal myopathy was not associated with survival free of MACE in patients with DCM. Decreased left ventricle ejection fraction and increased left ventricular end-diastolic diameter at baseline were associated with MACE. Individuals without DCM had favorable prognosis without MACE or death during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: DMD-associated DCM without severe skeletal myopathy is characterized by incomplete penetrance but high risk of MACE, including progression to end-stage heart failure and ventricular arrhythmias. DCM onset is the major determinant of prognosis with similar survival regardless of the presence of skeletal myopathy.pre-print797 K

R Graphics (3rd Edition) Paul Murrell. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, 2019. ISBN 978-1-4987-8905-9. 423 pp.

It has been fourteen years since the first edition of R Graphics was published (Murrell 2006) and eight since the second one was released (Murrell 2012). For readers, like me, who read the first edition of R Graphics but skipped the second one, this third edition of R Graphics represents a new, fresh updated version of the book. In transit from the first to the third edition, in addition to including new material, Dr. Murrell has introduced key changes and some rearrangements that have made the whole book more understandable, especially the concepts related to viewports and coordinate systems. Although major changes were made in the second edition of the book (Cook and Hofmann 2011), this third edition also introduces some changes. This is evident comparing the indexes of the second and the third editions. In particular, paraphrasing the preface of this third edition, Chapter 8 (devoted to developing new grid graphical functions and objects) has been completely rewritten and the fourth part of the book extensively restructured (and, I would add, reduced)

Dasymetric distribution of votes in a dense city

[EN] A large proportion of electoral analyses using geography are performed on a small area basis, such as polling units. Unfortunately, polling units are frequently redrawn, provoking breaks in their data series. Previous electoral results play a key role in many analyses. They are used by political party workers and journalists to present quick assessments of outcomes, by political scientists and electoral geographers to perform detailed scrutinizes and by pollsters and forecasters to anticipate electoral results. In this paper, we study to what extent more complex geographical approaches (based on a proper location of electors on the territory using dasymetric techniques) are of value in comparison to simple methods (like areal weighting) for the problem of reallocating votes in a large, dense city. Barcelona is such a city and, having recently redrawn the boundaries of its census sections, it is an ideal candidate for further scrutiny. Although previous studies show the approaches based on dasymetric techniques outperforming simpler solutions for interpolating census figures, our results show that improvements in the process of reallocating votes are marginal. This brings into question the extra effort that entails introducing ancillary sources of information in a dense urban area for this kind of data. Additional research is required to know whether and when these results are extendable. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economics and Competitiveness under Grant CSO2013-43054-R.Pavia, JM.; Cantarino-Martí, I. (2017). Dasymetric distribution of votes in a dense city. Applied Geography. 86:22-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.06.021S22318

Influencia del árido y materiales cementantes suplementarios en las propiedades de los morteros de cal hidratada

Hydrated lime is a historic material currently used in conservation. It hardens slowly by carbonation slowing construction however, supplementary cementitious materials accelerate hardening enhancing strength. Hydrated-lime mortars with rice husk ash–RHA-; ground granulated blastfurnace slag–GGBS- and increasing amounts of two aggregates were studied. Increasing aggregate lowered strength as interfacial zones proliferate; it lowered hygric properties and raised water demand. Aggregate content/composition didn’t affect the high water retention. For the higher aggregate contents (90 days), limestone mortars are c.20% stronger than silica mortars while the (1:1) silica sand mortars are 56% stronger in flexion. Additions increased strength with little impact on hygric properties. GGBS increased strength c.six times. RHA increased strength with little impact on hygric properties due to its great specific surface and high water-demand increasing porosity. GGBS and RHA properties ruling hydrate production and the kinetics of the pozzolanic reaction are considered partially responsible for the mortar property variation.La cal hydratada es un material histórico que se usa en conservación. Endurece despacio por carbonatacion pero materiales cementantes suplementarios aceleran su endurecimiento. Se estudian morteros de cal con escoria granulada molida de alto horno (GGBS) y ceniza de cascara de arroz (RHA) con cantidades variables de dos tipos de árido. GGBS multiplicó por 6 la resistencia mecánica del mortero de cal. RHA afectó ligeramente las propiedades hídricas por su elevada superficie específica que incrementa el agua de mezclado aumentando la porosidad. El aumento de árido redujo la resistencia mecánica, trabajabilidad y propiedades hídricas del mortero. La cantidad/composición del árido no afectó la alta retención de agua. Los morteros de árido de caliza (2:1 y 3:1) incrementaron un 20% su resistencia a la compresión con respecto a los de arena de sílice mientras que la resistencia a la flexión de los arena de sílice (1:1) es 56% superior que sus equivalentes de caliza

Las enfermedades degenerativas y su incidencia en relación a la afiliación a la Seguridad Social y a otros sistemas de previsión social (mutualidades de previsión social)

Treball Final de Màster Universitari en Advocacia. Codi: SRJ010. Curs acadèmic 2014-201