Will anyone vote? Prospects for turnout in the general election

One of the most notable features of the last two general elections was the low level of turnout. Before 2001 turnout at general elections was always at least 70% (and often far higher). But in 2001 it fell to just 59% and, at 61%, the figure in 2005 was little better. Over 17 million people eligible to vote that year chose not to do so, seven million more than voted for the winning Labour party. Britain found itself almost at the bottom of the turnout league among established European democracies. The failure of large sections of the public to go to the polls has led to considerable concern about the health of Britain’s democracy and stimulated many a suggestion as to how the country’s politicians might be able to reconnect with the electorate

Elections as beauty contests: do the rules matter?

Leaders have become the human face of election campaigns. This has lead to the suggestion that many voters now vote for the party leader they like best rather than the party they prefer. However, people would seem more likely to vote for the leader rather than the party in presidential elections rather than parliamentary ones, and amongst parliamentary elections themselves when a majoritarian rather than proportional electoral system is used. In addition we might expect these propositions to be particularly true if few people have a strong party identification and many people watch a lot of television news. This paper uses the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems project data to assess whether there is any systematic evidence to support these expectations

Rules and practices of political opinion polls

In this post, John Curtice explains the role of the British Polling Council in the context of the forthcoming general election. He details the rules that polling companies agree to abide by when becoming BPC members, and discusses two recent cases that posed questions about who had responsibility for publishing poll details

If the Conservatives are to counter the challenge of UKIP, they need to turn around the economy rather than fret obsessively about Europe

John Curtice looks at the evidence of recent opinion polls to examine the character and sources of support for UKIP, and to consider how the challenge posed by UKIP might best be met. He finds that the party is sapping more support away from the Tories than the other two main parties, and argues that the Tories need to turn around the economy rather than fret obsessively about Europe to respond to the challenge posed by UKIP

How Scotland Voted : Economic Perceptions in the Scottish Independence Referendum

A lot closer than had seemed likely a few months previously; not as close in the end as the final polls had suggested. That probably summarises many people’s reaction when they learnt that 45% had voted Yes, and 55% No in Scotland’s independence referendum. But Scotland did not vote as one. Voters’ propensities to vote Yes or No varied according to their social and economic circumstances. Not least of the reasons is that those circumstances affected their perceptions of the economic consequences of independence

The 2015 election could reignite the debate about electoral reform in Britain

The forthcoming election looks as though it will pose further questions about the continued merits of using the first-past-the-post electoral system, writes John Curtice

Territorial rights and open borders

Territorial rights consist of the right to jurisdiction, the right to resources and the right to exclude immigrants and are assumed to be essential to state sovereignty. Scholars who have discussed the justification of these rights have mostly focused on the right to jurisdiction. Few engage with the implications of such justification for the right to exclude immigrants. This paper argues that the justification for territorial rights cannot justify the right of states to exclude immigrants. Allowing immigrants to settle within the territory does not undermine any of the interests territorial rights are meant to protect. In addition, the interests of current inhabitants do not provide sufficient reasons to grant the state the right to exclude immigrants from the territory that everyone has equal right to in an original situation. State sovereignty is therefore seen as compatible with open borders

With 16 weeks to go until Scotland decides, many votes are still up for grabs

While the Yes side seems to have retained the gains that it made during the winter, it apparently does not have the continued momentum it seemingly still needs if it is to achieve victory. However, when considering those who still have not made up their minds and those who acknowledge they may change their minds come September, the votes of just under half of Scots are still potentially up for grabs. But, nevertheless, John Curtice thinks it will take a Herculean campaign from here on out (or an especially bad one) to change things