Late Cretaceous climate simulations with different CO2 levels and subarctic gateway configurations: A model-data comparison

We investigate the impact of different CO2 levels and different subarctic gateway configurations on the surface temperatures during the latest Cretaceous using the Earth System Model COSMOS. The simulated temperatures are compared with the surface temperature reconstructions based on a recent compilation of the latest Cretaceous proxies. In our numerical experiments, the CO2 level ranges from 1 to 6 times the preindustrial (PI) CO2 level of 280 ppm. On a global scale, the most reasonable match between modeling and proxy data is obtained for the experiments with 3 to 5 × PI CO2 concentrations. However, the simulated low- (high-) latitude temperatures are too high (low) as compared to the proxy data. The moderate CO2 levels scenarios might be more realistic, if we take into account proxy data and the dead zone effect criterion. Furthermore, we test if the model-data discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic proxy-data interpretations. This is distinctly seen at high latitudes, where most proxies are biased toward summer temperatures. Additional sensitivity experiments with different ocean gateway configurations and constant CO2 level indicate only minor surface temperatures changes (<~1°C) on a global scale, with higher values (up to ~8°C) on a regional scale. These findings imply that modeled and reconstructed temperature gradients are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, providing challenges for the interpretation of proxy data and/or model sensitivity. With respect to the latter, our results suggest that an assessment of greenhouse worlds is best constrained by temperatures in the midlatitudes

The Dynamic Structure of Thrombin in Solution

AbstractThe backbone dynamics of human α-thrombin inhibited at the active site serine were analyzed using R1, R2, and heteronuclear NOE experiments, variable temperature TROSY 2D [1H-15N] correlation spectra, and Rex measurements. The N-terminus of the heavy chain, which is formed upon zymogen activation and inserts into the protein core, is highly ordered, as is much of the double beta-barrel core. Some of the surface loops, by contrast, remain very dynamic with order parameters as low as 0.5 indicating significant motions on the ps-ns timescale. Regions of the protein that were thought to be dynamic in the zymogen and to become rigid upon activation, in particular the γ-loop, the 180s loop, and the Na+ binding site have order parameters below 0.8. Significant Rex was observed in most of the γ-loop, in regions proximal to the light chain, and in the β-sheet core. Accelerated molecular dynamics simulations yielded a molecular ensemble consistent with measured residual dipolar couplings that revealed dynamic motions up to milliseconds. Several regions, including the light chain and two proximal loops, did not appear highly dynamic on the ps-ns timescale, but had significant motions on slower timescales

Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation

During the period from approximately 150 to 35?million years ago, the Cretaceous–Paleocene–Eocene (CPE), the Earth was in a “greenhouse” state with little or no ice at either pole. It was also a period of considerable global change, from the warmest periods of the mid-Cretaceous, to the threshold of icehouse conditions at the end of the Eocene. However, the relative contribution of palaeogeographic change, solar change, and carbon cycle change to these climatic variations is unknown. Here, making use of recent advances in computing power, and a set of unique palaeogeographic maps, we carry out an ensemble of 19 General Circulation Model simulations covering this period, one simulation per stratigraphic stage. By maintaining atmospheric CO2 concentration constant across the simulations, we are able to identify the contribution from palaeogeographic and solar forcing to global change across the CPE, and explore the underlying mechanisms. We find that global mean surface temperature is remarkably constant across the simulations, resulting from a cancellation of opposing trends from solar and palaeogeographic change. However, there are significant modelled variations on a regional scale. The stratigraphic stage–stage transitions which exhibit greatest climatic change are associated with transitions in the mode of ocean circulation, themselves often associated with changes in ocean gateways, and amplified by feedbacks related to emissivity and planetary albedo. We also find some control on global mean temperature from continental area and global mean orography. Our results have important implications for the interpretation of single-site palaeo proxy records. In particular, our results allow the non-CO2 (i.e. palaeogeographic and solar constant) components of proxy records to be removed, leaving a more global component associated with carbon cycle change. This “adjustment factor” is used to adjust sea surface temperatures, as the deep ocean is not fully equilibrated in the model. The adjustment factor is illustrated for seven key sites in the CPE, and applied to proxy data from Falkland Plateau, and we provide data so that similar adjustments can be made to any site and for any time period within the CPE. Ultimately, this will enable isolation of the CO2-forced climate signal to be extracted from multiple proxy records from around the globe, allowing an evaluation of the regional signals and extent of polar amplification in response to CO2 changes during the CPE. Finally, regions where the adjustment factor is constant throughout the CPE could indicate places where future proxies could be targeted in order to reconstruct the purest CO2-induced temperature change, where the complicating contributions of other processes are minimised. Therefore, combined with other considerations, this work could provide useful information for supporting targets for drilling localities and outcrop studies

Past East Asian monsoon evolution controlled by paleogeography, not CO2

The East Asian monsoon plays an integral role in human society, yet its geological history and controlling processes are poorly understood. Using a general circulation model and geological data, we explore the drivers controlling the evolution of the monsoon system over the past 150 million years. In contrast to previous work, we find that the monsoon is controlled primarily by changes in paleogeography, with little influence from atmospheric CO2. We associate increased precipitation since the Late Cretaceous with the gradual uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan region, transitioning from an ITCZ-dominated monsoon to a sea breeze–dominated monsoon. The rising region acted as a mechanical barrier to cold and dry continental air advecting into the region, leading to increasing influence of moist air from the Indian Ocean/South China Sea. We show that, apart from a dry period in the middle Cretaceous, a monsoon system has existed in East Asia since at least the Early Cretaceous

Global warming and ocean stratification : a potential result of large extraterrestrial impacts

We acknowledge the support of resources provided by UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), the High Performance Computing Cluster supported by the Research and Specialist Computing Support service at the University of East Anglia, UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), grants "CPE" (NE/K014757/1), and "Paleopolar" (NE/I005722/1). Data can be obtained from MJ on request. ACM acknowledges support from an AXA Postdoctoral Fellowship and the ERC ACCI grant Project No 267760, and NERC grant NE/M018199/1.The prevailing paradigm for the climatic effects of large asteroid or comet impacts is a reduction in sunlight and significant short-term cooling caused by atmospheric aerosol loading. Here we show, using global climate model experiments, that the large increases in stratospheric water vapor that can occur upon impact with the ocean cause radiative forcings of over +20 W m−2 in the case of 10 km sized bolides. The result of such a positive forcing is rapid climatic warming, increased upper ocean stratification, and potentially disruption of upper ocean ecosystems. Since two thirds of the world's surface is ocean, we suggest that some bolide impacts may actually warm climate overall. For impacts producing both stratospheric water vapor and aerosol loading, radiative forcing by water vapor can reduce or even cancel out aerosol-induced cooling, potentially causing 1–2 decades of increased temperatures in both the upper ocean and on the land surface. Such a response, which depends on the ratio of aerosol to water vapor radiative forcing, is distinct from many previous scenarios for the climatic effects of large bolide impacts, which mostly account for cooling from aerosol loading. Finally, we discuss how water vapor forcing from bolide impacts may have contributed to two well-known phenomena: extinction across the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary and the deglaciation of the Neoproterozoic snowball Earth.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The impact of Cenozoic cooling on assemblage diversity in planktonic foraminifera

© 2016 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. The attached file is the published version of the article

Early Jurassic North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures from TEX₈₆palaeothermometry

Early Jurassic marine palaeotemperatures have been typically quantified by oxygen-isotope palaeothermometry of benthic and nektonic carbonate and phosphatic macrofossils. However, records of Early Jurassic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that can be directly compared with General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations of past climates are currently unavailable. The TEX86 SST proxy is based upon the relative abundance of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) preserved in organic-carbon-bearing sediments. This proxy has been used extensively on Cretaceous and Cenozoic materials and, in one study, Middle and Upper Jurassic sediments. Here TEX86 is applied, for the first time, to Lower Jurassic (Sinemurian–Pliensbachian) sediments cored at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 547 in the North Atlantic. The abundance of GDGTs in these sediments is very low, despite biomarker and Rock-Eval data suggesting that thermal maturity is, generally, low. Sea-floor oxygenation and a high input of reworked terrestrially sourced organic matter may explain the low concentrations. For samples from which it was possible to quantify the relative abundance of GDGTs, TEX86 values range from 0.78 to 0.88, equating to SSTs in excess of >28˚C. These temperatures are broadly comparable with new GCM simulations of the Sinemurian and Pliensbachian stages and support the general view of a predominantly warm climate. The new proxy data suggest that, under favourable geological conditions, it is possible to extend the record of TEX86-based SSTs back into the Early Jurassic

In Patients With Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis, Prednisolone Increases Susceptibility to Infection and Infection-Related Mortality, and Is Associated With High Circulating Levels of Bacterial DNA

Background & Aims Infections are common in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis (SAH), but little information is available on how to predict their development or their effects on patients. Prednisolone is advocated for treatment of SAH, but can increase susceptibility to infection. We compared the effects of infection on clinical outcomes of patients treated with and without prednisolone, and identified risk factors for development of infection in SAH. Methods We analyzed data from 1092 patients enrolled in a double-blind placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy of treatment with prednisolone (40 mg daily) or pentoxifylline (400 mg 3 times each day) in patients with SAH. The 2 × 2 factorial design led to 547 patients receiving prednisolone; 546 were treated with pentoxifylline. The trial was conducted in the United Kingdom from January 2011 through February 2014. Data on development of infection were collected at evaluations performed at screening, baseline, weekly during admission, on discharge, and after 90 days. Patients were diagnosed with infection based on published clinical and microbiologic criteria. Risk factors for development of infection and effects on 90-day mortality were evaluated separately in patients treated with prednisolone (n = 547) and patients not treated with prednisolone (n = 545) using logistic regression. Pretreatment blood levels of bacterial DNA (bDNA) were measured in 731 patients. Results Of the 1092 patients in the study, 135 had an infection at baseline, 251 developed infections during treatment, and 89 patients developed an infection after treatment. There was no association between pentoxifylline therapy and the risk of serious infection (P = .084), infection during treatment (P = .20), or infection after treatment (P = .27). Infections classified as serious were more frequent in patients treated with prednisolone (odds ratio [OR], 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27−2.92; P = .002). There was no association between prednisolone therapy and infection during treatment (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.78−1.37; P = .80). However, a higher proportion (10%) of patients receiving prednisolone developed an infection after treatment than of patients not given prednisolone (6%) (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.07−2.69; P = .024). Development of infection was associated with increased 90-day mortality in patients with SAH treated with prednisolone, independent of model for end-stage liver disease or Lille score (OR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.41−4.30; P = .002). High circulating bDNA predicted infection that developed within 7 days of prednisolone therapy, independent of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and white blood cell count (OR, 4.68; 95% CI, 1.80−12.17; P = .001). In patients who did not receive prednisolone, infection was not independently associated with 90-day mortality (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.54−1.62; P = .82) or levels of bDNA (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.39−1.75; P = .62). Conclusions Patients with SAH given prednisolone are at greater risk for developing serious infections and infections after treatment than patients not given prednisolone, which may offset its therapeutic benefit. Level of circulating bDNA before treatment could identify patients at high risk of infection if given prednisolone; these data could be used to select therapies for patients with SAH. EudraCT no: 2009-013897-42; Current Controlled Trials no: ISRCTN88782125