Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in quantitative pest risk assessments : practical rules for risk assessors

Quantitative models have several advantages compared to qualitative methods for pest risk assessments (PRA). Quantitative models do not require the definition of categorical ratings and can be used to compute numerical probabilities of entry and establishment, and to quantify spread and impact. These models are powerful tools, but they include several sources of uncertainty that need to be taken into account by risk assessors and communicated to decision makers. Uncertainty analysis (UA) and sensitivity analysis (SA) are useful for analyzing uncertainty in models used in PRA, and are becoming more popular. However, these techniques should be applied with caution because several factors may influence their results. In this paper, a brief overview of methods of UA and SA are given. As well, a series of practical rules are defined that can be followed by risk assessors to improve the reliability of UA and SA results. These rules are illustrated in a case study based on the infection model of Magarey et al. (2005) where the results of UA and SA are shown to be highly dependent on the assumptions made on the probability distribution of the model inputs

Spatial Guilds in the Serengeti Food Web Revealed by a Bayesian Group Model

Food webs, networks of feeding relationships in an ecosystem, provide fundamental insights into mechanisms that determine ecosystem stability and persistence. A standard approach in food-web analysis, and network analysis in general, has been to identify compartments, or modules, defined by many links within compartments and few links between them. This approach can identify large habitat boundaries in the network but may fail to identify other important structures. Empirical analyses of food webs have been further limited by low-resolution data for primary producers. In this paper, we present a Bayesian computational method for identifying group structure using a flexible definition that can describe both functional trophic roles and standard compartments. We apply this method to a newly compiled plant-mammal food web from the Serengeti ecosystem that includes high taxonomic resolution at the plant level, allowing a simultaneous examination of the signature of both habitat and trophic roles in network structure. We find that groups at the plant level reflect habitat structure, coupled at higher trophic levels by groups of herbivores, which are in turn coupled by carnivore groups. Thus the group structure of the Serengeti web represents a mixture of trophic guild structure and spatial pattern, in contrast to the standard compartments typically identified. The network topology supports recent ideas on spatial coupling and energy channels in ecosystems that have been proposed as important for persistence. Furthermore, our Bayesian approach provides a powerful, flexible framework for the study of network structure, and we believe it will prove instrumental in a variety of biological contexts.</p

Development of learning objectives for neurology in a veterinary curriculum: Part II: Postgraduates

Background: Specialization in veterinary medicine in Europe is organized through the Colleges of the European Board of Veterinary Specialization. To inform updating of the curriculum for residents of the European College of Veterinary Neurology (ECVN) job analysis was used. Defining job competencies of diploma holders in veterinary neurology can be used as references for curriculum design of resident training. With the support of the diplomates of the ECVN and the members of the European Society of Veterinary Neurology (ESVN) a mixed-method research, including a qualitative search of objectives and quantitative ranking with 149 Likert scale questions and 48 free text questions in 9 categories in a survey was conducted. In addition, opinions of different groups were subjected to statistical analysis and the result compared. Results: A return rate of 62% (n = 213/341) was achieved. Of the competencies identified by the Delphi process, 75% objectives were expected to attain expert level; 24% attain advanced level; 1% entry level. In addition, the exercise described the 11 highly ranked competencies, the 3 most frequently seen diseases of the central and peripheral nervous systems and the most frequently used immunosuppressive, antiepileptic and chemotherapeutic drugs. Conclusion: The outcomes of this “Delphi job analysis” provide a powerful tool to align the curriculum for ECVN resident training and can be adapted to the required job competencies, based on expectations. The expectation is that for majority of these competencies diplomates should attain an expert level. Besides knowledge and clinical skills, residents and diplomates are expected to demonstrate high standards in teaching and communication. The results of this study will help to create a European curriculum for postgraduate education in veterinary neurology

Microscopic resolution of the interplay of Kondo screening and superconducting pairing: Mn-phthalocyanine molecules adsorbed on superconducting Pb(111)

Magnetic molecules adsorbed on a superconductor give rise to a local competition of Cooper pair and Kondo singlet formation inducing subgap bound states. For Manganese-phthalocyanine molecules on a Pb(111) substrate, scanning tunneling spectroscopy resolves pairs of subgap bound states and two Kondo screening channels. We show in a combined approach of scaling and numerical renormalization group calculations that the intriguing relation between Kondo screening and superconducting pairing is solely determined by the hybridization strength with the substrate. We demonstrate that an effective one-channel Anderson impurity model with a sizable particle-hole asymmetry captures universal and non-universal observations in the system quantitatively. The model parameters and disentanglement of the two screening channels are elucidated by scaling arguments.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Analysis of Finite Microstrip Structures Using an Efficient Implementation of the Integral Equation Technique

An efficient numerical implementation of the Integral Equation technique (IE) has been developed for the analysis of the electrical characteristics of finite microstrip structures. The technique formulates a volume version of the IE for the finite dielectric objects, and a standard surface IE technique for the metallic areas. The system of integral equations formu- lated are solved with special numerical techniques described in this paper. The input impedances of several microstrip antennas have been computed, showing good agreement with respect mea- surements. The technique has shown to be accurate even for complex geometries containing several stacked dielectric layers. The radiation patterns of the structures have also been com- puted, and measured results from real manufactured hardware confirm that backside radiation and secondary lobes are accurately predicted by the theoretical model. The paper also discuss a suitable excitation model for finite size ground planes, and investigates the possibilities for an independent meshing of the metallic areas and the dielectric objects inside a given geom- etry. The practical value of the approach derived is that microstrip circuits can be designed minimizing the volume and size of the dielectric substrates.This work has been supported bythe Spanish National Project ESP2001-4546-PE, and RegionalSeneca Project PB/4/FS/02

On Mean Field Glassy Dynamics out of Equilibrium

We study the off equilibrium dynamics of a mean field disordered systems which can be interpreted both as a long range interaction spin glass and as a particle in a random potential. The statics of this problem is well known and exhibits a low temperature spin glass phase with continuous replica symmetry breaking. We study the equations of off equilibrium dynamics with analytical and numerical methods. In the spin glass phase, we find that the usual equilibrium dynamics (observed when the observation time is much smaller than the waiting time) coexists with an aging regime. In this aging regime, we propose a solution implying a hierarchy of crossovers between the observation time and the waiting time.Comment: LaTeX, LPTENS preprint 94/0

The Active Quiescence of HR Del (Nova Del 1967)

This new UV study of the ex-nova HR Del is based on all of the data obtained with the IUE satellite, and includes the important series of spectra taken in 1988 and 1992 that have not been analyzed so far. After the correction for the reddening (EB-V)=0.16), adopting a distance d =850 pc, we have derived a mean UV luminosity close to Luv ~ 56 Lsun, the highest value among classical novae in "quiescence". Also the "average" optical absolute magnitude Mv=+2.30 is indicative of a bright object. The UV continuum luminosity, the HeII 1640 A emission line luminosity, and the optical absolute magnitude all give a mass accretion rate Mdot very close to 1.4*10**(-7) Msun/yr, if one assumes that the luminosity of the old nova is due to a non-irradiated accretion disk. The continuum distribution is well fitted with either a black body of 33,900 K, or a power-law F(lambda) ~ lambda**(-2.20). We show that the "quiescent" optical magnitude at mv ~ 12 comes from the hot component and not from the companion star. Since most IUE observations correspond to the "quiescent" magnitude at mv ~ 12, the same as in the pre-eruption stage, we infer that the pre-nova, for at least 70 years prior to eruption, was also very bright at near the same Luv, Mv, Mdot and T values as derived in the present study for the ex-nova. The wind components in the P Cyg profiles of the CIV 1550 A and NV 1240 A resonance lines are strong and variable on short timescales, with vedge up to -5000 km/s, a remarkably high value. The phenomenology in the short-time variations of the wind indicates the presence of an inhomogeneous outflow. We discuss the nature of the strong UV continuum and wind features and the implications of the presence of a "bright" state a long time before and after outburst on our present knowledge of the pre-nova and post-nova behavior.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, accepted for Astronomy and Astrophysic

The value landscape in ecosystem services : value, value wherefore art thou value?

Ecosystem services has risen to become one of the preeminent global policy discourses framing the way we conceive and articulate environment–society relations, integral to the form and function of a number of far-reaching international policies such as the Aichi 2020 Biodiversity Targets and the recently adopted Sustainable Development Goals. Value; its pursuit, definition, quantification, monetization, multiplicity and uncertainty, both in terms of meaning and attribution, is fundamental to the economic foundations of ecosystem services and a core feature driving its inclusion across multiple policy domains such as environmental management and conservation. Distilling current knowledge and developments in this arena are thus highly prescient. In this article, we cast a critical eye over the evidence base and aim to provide a comprehensive synthesis of what values are, why they are important and the methodological approaches employed to elicit them (including their pros and cons and the arguments for and against). We also illustrate the current ecosystem service value landscape, highlight some of the fundamental challenges in discerning and applying values, and outline future research activities. In so doing, we further advance ecosystem valuation discourse, contribute to wider debates linking ecosystem services and sustainability and strengthen connections between ecosystem services and environmental policy

Some clarifications about Lema\^itre-Tolman models of the Universe used to deal with the dark energy problem

During the past fifteen years, inhomogeneous cosmological models have been put forward to explain the observed dimming of the SNIa luminosity without resorting to dark energy. The simplest models are the spherically symmetric Lema\^itre-Tolman (LT) solutions with a central observer. Their use must be considered as a mere first step towards more sophisticated models. Spherical symmetry is but a mathematical simplification and one must consider spherical symmetric models as exhibiting an energy density smoothed out over angles around us. However, they have been taken at face value by some authors who tried to use them for either irrelevant purposes or to put them to the test as if they were robust models of our Universe. We wish to clarify how these models must be used in cosmology. We first use the results obtained by Iguchi and collaborators to derive the density profiles of the pure growing and decaying mode LT models. We then discuss the relevance of the different test proposals in the light of the interpretation given above. We show that decaying-mode (parabolic) LT models always exhibit an overdensity near their centre and growing-mode (elliptic or hyperbolic) LT models, a void. This is at variance with some statements in the literature. We dismiss all previous proposals merely designed to test the spherical symmetry of the LT models, and we agree that the value of $H_0$ and the measurement of the redshift drift are valid tests of the models. However, we suspect that this last test, which is the best in principle, will be more complicated to implement than usually claimed.Comment: 18 pages, no figure, section 3 modified, results of section 3.2 changed, sections 4.3 and 4.4 added, other minor changes and references adde

The nature and fate of natural resins in the geosphere. XII. Investigation of C-ring aromatic diterpenoids in Raritan amber by pyrolysis-GC-matrix isolation FTIR-MS

Upper Cretaceous amber from the Raritan Formation (Sayerville, New Jersey) has been investigated by Pyrolysis-GC-MS and Pyrolysis-GC-matrix isolation FTIR-MS. Results establish the existence of two distinct forms of amber in this deposit. Both forms are Class Ib ambers, but they are unambiguously differentiated on the basis of their (intact) diterpenoid composition. The presence of callitrisate in both forms, and cupraene in samples designated form 1, strongly suggest that both derive from related-but-distinct species within the Cupressaceae. In addition to callitrisate, dehydroabietate and analogous 17-nor-, 16,17-dinor- and 15,16,17-trinor- analogues of these compounds are also observed. The distributions of these products in multiple samples suggest that they are the result of biological emplacement, rather than diagenetic modification of the parent compounds. This indicates that the distributions of diterpenes observed in these samples are representative of the original bioterpenoids and, hence, are useful for chemotaxonomic analyses