Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models

This is the final version. Available on open access from th European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this recordCode and data availability: The CMIP6 model output datasets analysed during this study are available online at https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4507 (EC-Earth Consortium, 2019), https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8473 (Krasting et al., 2018), doi10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6435 (Wieners et al., 2019), https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10861 (Bethke et al., 2019), https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7782 (Park and Shin, 2019), https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.9702 (Lee and Liang, 2020), and https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5792 (Tang et al., 2019). Code used for analysis is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7038389 (Parry et al., 2022).Amazon forest dieback is seen as a potential tipping point under climate change. These concerns are partly based on an early coupled climate–carbon cycle simulation that produced unusually strong drying and warming in Amazonia. In contrast, the fifth-generation Earth system models (Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP5) produced few examples of Amazon dieback under climate change. Here we examine results from seven sixth-generation models (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6), which include interactive vegetation carbon and in some cases interactive forest fires. Although these models typically project increases in area-mean forest carbon across Amazonia under CO2-induced climate change, five of the seven models also produce abrupt reductions in vegetation carbon, which indicate localised dieback events. The northern South America (NSA) region, which contains most of the rainforest, is especially vulnerable in the models. These dieback events, some of which are mediated by fire, are preceded by an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in near-surface temperature, which is consistent with more extreme dry seasons. Based on the ensemble mean of the detected dieback events we estimate that 7±5 % of the NSA region will experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon for every degree of global warming past 1.5 ∘C.European Research Council (ERC)European Union Horizon 2020Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Mixing Behavior of the Biosurfactant, Rhamnolipid, with a Conventional Anionic Surfactant, Sodium Dodecyl Benzene Sulfonate

The use of small angle neutron scattering, SANS, neutron reflectivity, NR, and surface tension to study the mixing properties of the biosurfactant rhamnolipid with a conventional anionic surfactant, sodium dodecyl 6-benzene sulfonate, LAS, is reported. The monorhamnose rhamnolipid, R1, mixes close to ideally with LAS at the air-water interface, whereas for mixtures of LAS with the dirhamnose rhamnolipid, R2, the LAS strongly partitions to the air-water interface relative to R2, probably because of the steric hindrance of the larger R2 headgroup. These trends in the binary mixtures are also reflected in the ternary R1/R2/LAS mixtures. However, for these ternary mixtures, there is also a pronounced synergy in the total adsorption, which reaches a maximum for a LAS/rhamnolipid mole ratio of about 0.6 and a R1/R2 mol ratio of about 0.5, an effect which is not observed in the binary mixtures. In solution, the R1/LAS mixtures form relatively small globular micelles, L(1), at low surfactant concentrations (<20 mM), more planar structures (lamellar, L(α), unilamellar/multilamellar vesicles, ulv/mlv) are formed at higher surfactant concentrations for R1 and LAS rich compositions, and a large mixed phase (L(α)/L(1) and L(1)/L(α)) region forms at intermediate surfactant compositions. In contrast, for the R2/LAS mixtures, the higher preferred curvature of R2 dominates the phase behavior. The predominant microstructure is in the form of small globular micelles, except for solution compositions rich in LAS (>80 mol % LAS) where more planar structures are formed. For the ternary mixtures, there is an evolution in the resulting phase behavior from one dominated by L(1) (R2 rich) to one dominated by planar structures, L(α), (R1, LAS rich), and which strongly depends upon the LAS/rhamnolipid and R1/R2 mole ratio

Solution Self-Assembly and Adsorption at the Air-Water Interface of the Monorhamnose and Dirhamnose Rhamnolipids and Their Mixtures

The self-assembly in solution and adsorption at the air-water interface, measured by small-angle neutron scattering, SANS, and neutron reflectivity, NR, of the monorhamnose and dirhamnose rhamnolipids (R1, R2) and their mixtures, are discussed. The production of the deuterium-labeled rhamnolipids (required for the NR studies) from a Pseudomonas aeruginosa culture and their separation into the pure R1 and R2 components is described. At the air-water interface, R1 and R2 exhibit Langmuir-like adsorption isotherms, with saturated area/molecule values of about 60 and 75 Å(2), respectively. In R1/R2 mixtures, there is a strong partitioning of R1 to the surface and R2 competes less favorably because of the steric or packing constraints of the larger R2 dirhamnose headgroup. In dilute solution (<20 mM), R1 and R2 form small globular micelles, L(1), with aggregation numbers of about 50 and 30, respectively. At higher solution concentrations, R1 has a predominantly planar structure, L(α) (unilamellar, ULV, or bilamellar, BLV, vesicles) whereas R2 remains globular, with an aggregation number that increases with increasing surfactant concentration. For R1/R2 mixtures, solutions rich in R2 are predominantly micellar whereas solutions rich in R1 have a more planar structure. At an intermediate composition (60 to 80 mol % R1), there are mixed L(α)/L(1) and L(1)/L(α) regions. However, the higher preferred curvature associated with R2 tends to dominate the mixed R1/R2 microstructure and its associated phase behavior

Model Channel Ion Currents in NaCl - SPC/E Solution with Applied-Field Molecular Dynamics

Using periodic boundary conditions and a constant applied field, we have simulated current flow through an 8.125 Angstrom internal diameter, rigid, atomistic channel with polar walls in a rigid membrane using explicit ions and SPC/E water. Channel and bath currents were computed from ten 10-ns trajectories for each of 10 different conditions of concentration and applied voltage. An electric field was applied uniformly throughout the system to all mobile atoms. On average, the resultant net electric field falls primarily across the membrane channel, as expected for two conductive baths separated by a membrane capacitance. The channel is rarely occupied by more than one ion. Current-voltage relations are concentration-dependent and superlinear at high concentrations.Comment: Accepted for publication in Biophysical Journa

Spondin-2 (SPON2), a More Prostate-Cancer-Specific Diagnostic Biomarker

BACKGROUND: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, although common, has recently been called into question. To find prostate cancer (PCa) diagnostic biomarkers that can make up for the defects of PSA, we compared the secretomes of several benign and PCa cell lines, selected candidate molecules, and then confirmed their clinical value. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We first identified extracellular proteins by two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) coupled with liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) identification. We then validated the secreted proteins on a cellular level, and finally determined whether they could be used as PCa diagnostic biomarkers using prostate tissue and serum specimens of Chinese volunteers by immunohistostaining and sandwich ELISA. We obtained credible extracellular protein 2-DE graphs of prostate cell lines. The 5 spots that showed superior repeatability were selected for LC-MS/MS analysis, which identified seven candidate molecules. One of the candidate molecules, spondin-2 (SPON2), was only expressed in the conditioned media (CM) of androgen receptor (AR) positive PCa cell lines. Using tissue microarray by immunohistostaining, we found SPON2 to be over-expressed in PCa. SPON2 staining was more intense in Gleason score sum 7-8 and in PCa patients with metastasis. By receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, we found that the serum SPON2 level was elevated in PCa patients, showing sensitivity and specificity suitable for diagnostic use. We also found that SPON2 could be used to identify PCa patients with serum PSA levels no higher than 10 ng/ml from healthy elderly men. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: SPON2 is a new serum and histological diagnostic biomarker for PCa. It can avoid some of the problems of PSA testing and was here found to offer relatively high sensitivity and specificity relative to PSA

“I would rather be told than not know” - A qualitative study exploring parental views on identifying the future risk of childhood overweight and obesity during infancy

BACKGROUND: Risk assessment tools provide an opportunity to prevent childhood overweight and obesity through early identification and intervention to influence infant feeding practices. Engaging parents of infants is paramount for success however; the literature suggests there is uncertainty surrounding the use of such tools with concerns about stigmatisation, labelling and expressions of parental guilt. This study explores parents' views on identifying future risk of childhood overweight and obesity during infancy and communicating risk to parents. METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 23 parents and inductive, interpretive and thematic analysis performed. RESULTS: Three main themes emerged from the data: 1) Identification of infant overweight and obesity risk. Parents were hesitant about health professionals identifying infant overweight as believed they would recognise this for themselves, in addition parents feared judgement from health professionals. Identification of future obesity risk during infancy was viewed positively however the use of a non-judgemental communication style was viewed as imperative. 2) Consequences of infant overweight. Parents expressed immediate anxieties about the impact of excess weight on infant ability to start walking. Parents were aware of the progressive nature of childhood obesity however, did not view overweight as a significant problem until the infant could walk as viewed this as a point when any excess weight would be lost due to increased energy expenditure. 3) Parental attributions of causality, responsibility, and control. Parents articulated a high level of personal responsibility for preventing and controlling overweight during infancy, which translated into self-blame. Parents attributed infant overweight to overfeeding however articulated a reluctance to modify infant feeding practices prior to weaning. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to explore the use of obesity risk tools in clinical practice, the findings suggest that identification, and communication of future overweight and obesity risk is acceptable to parents of infants. Despite this positive response, findings suggest that parents' acceptance to identification of risk and implementation of behaviour change is time specific. The apparent level of parental responsibility, fear of judgement and self-blame also highlights the importance of health professionals approach to personalised risk communication so feelings of self-blame are negated and stigmatisation avoided

Self-care coping strategies in people with diabetes: a qualitative exploratory study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The management of diabetes self-care is largely the responsibility of the patient. With more emphasis on the prevention of complications, adherence to diabetes self-care regimens can be difficult. Diabetes self-care requires the patient to make many dietary and lifestyle changes. This study will explore patient perceptions of diabetes self-care, with particular reference to the burden of self-care and coping strategies among patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A maximum variation sample of 17 patients was selected from GP practices and diabetes clinics in Ireland to include patients with types 1 and 2 diabetes, various self-care regimens, and a range of diabetes complications. Data were collected by in-depth interviews; which were tape-recorded and transcribed. The transcripts were analysed using open and axial coding procedures to identify main categories, and were reviewed by an independent corroborator. Discussion of the results is made in the theoretical context of the health belief, health value, self-efficacy, and locus of control frameworks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Patients' perceptions of their self-care varied on a spectrum, displaying differences in self-care responsibilities such as competence with dietary planning, testing blood sugar and regular exercise. Three patient types could be distinguished, which were labeled: "proactive manager," a patient who independently monitors blood glucose and adjusts his/her self-care regime to maintain metabolic control; "passive follower," a patient who follows his/her prescribed self-care regime, but does not react autonomously to changes in metabolic control; and "nonconformist," a patient who does not follow most of his/her prescribed self-care regimen.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Patients have different diabetes self-care coping strategies which are influenced by their self-care health value and consequently may affect their diet and exercise choices, frequency of blood glucose monitoring, and compliance with prescribed medication regimens. Particular attention should be paid to the patient's self-care coping strategy, and self-care protocols should be tailored to complement the different patient types.</p

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Search for rare quark-annihilation decays, B --> Ds(*) Phi

We report on searches for B- --> Ds- Phi and B- --> Ds*- Phi. In the context of the Standard Model, these decays are expected to be highly suppressed since they proceed through annihilation of the b and u-bar quarks in the B- meson. Our results are based on 234 million Upsilon(4S) --> B Bbar decays collected with the BABAR detector at SLAC. We find no evidence for these decays, and we set Bayesian 90% confidence level upper limits on the branching fractions BF(B- --> Ds- Phi) Ds*- Phi)<1.2x10^(-5). These results are consistent with Standard Model expectations.Comment: 8 pages, 3 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

Using the social entrepreneurship approach to generate innovative and sustainable malaria diagnosis interventions in Tanzania: a case study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There have been a number of interventions to date aimed at improving malaria diagnostic accuracy in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, limited success is often reported for a number of reasons, especially in rural settings. This paper seeks to provide a framework for applied research aimed to improve malaria diagnosis using a combination of the established methods, participatory action research and social entrepreneurship.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This case study introduces the idea of using the social entrepreneurship approach (SEA) to create innovative and sustainable applied health research outcomes. The following key elements define the SEA: (1) identifying a locally relevant research topic and plan, (2) recognizing the importance of international multi-disciplinary teams and the incorporation of local knowledge, (3) engaging in a process of continuous innovation, adaptation and learning, (4) remaining motivated and determined to achieve sustainable long-term research outcomes and, (5) sharing and transferring ownership of the project with the international and local partner.</p> <p>Evaluation</p> <p>The SEA approach has a strong emphasis on innovation lead by local stakeholders. In this case, innovation resulted in a unique holistic research program aimed at understanding patient, laboratory and physician influences on accurate diagnosis of malaria. An evaluation of milestones for each SEA element revealed that the success of one element is intricately related to the success of other elements.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The SEA will provide an additional framework for researchers and local stakeholders that promotes innovation and adaptability. This approach will facilitate the development of new ideas, strategies and approaches to understand how health issues, such as malaria, affect vulnerable communities.</p