Action A3 : analysis of spatial connectivity and preparation of environmental impact assessment guidelines : prepared within A3 action of LIFE DINALP BEAR Project (LIFE13 NAT/SI/0005)

As for other large carnivores in Europe, the brown bear shows a trend of recovering under different management scenarios. However, this recovery comes with specific biological and conservation requirements at individual and population levels often followed by conflicts in a highly humanized continent. To foresee conflicts with humans and to facilitate decisionmaking, spatially-explicit research is required to identify potential habitats and the connectivity of fragmented bear populations. First, we conducted multiscale modeling based on scale-integrated resource selection functions (SRSFs) to identify drivers shaping the spaceuse of three bear populations/demographic units (Trentino-Swiss, pre-Alps, and Dinaric), and across 3 scales of space (population distribution, home range establishment, and use of individual home range). Secondly, we also conducted an analysis of the connectivity patterns of suitable habitat patches (nodes) to identify the potential importance of each node to contribute to individual mobility, survival, and population connectivity. Lastly, to support further environmental impact assessment analyses, we identified the most plausible least-cost paths connecting different areas of the same large patch with itself and surrounding patches. Using topographic, landcover, and anthropogenic predictors, our analytical approach transcended from scale dependence bias to produce a predictive map on habitat suitability while delivered information on habitat selection trends for each population. Bears mostly selected forest habitats in all the populationshowever, habitat selection differed for the other variables among populations and scales, especially in the Trentino area where the species selected the most intricate topography. Predictive maps revealed a broad range of suitable but fragmented patches of bear habitat. The largest and most important patches for connectivity occurred in the current distribution range of the species, with the most suitable habitat lying in the pre-Alpine and Dinaric populations. Connecting viable patches to host female homeranges is possible through stepping-stone patches of corridors reachable within the estimated dispersal distance of females. Unified transnational decision-making is required for the conservation of stepping-stone patches, facilitate bear mobility, and ultimately connect bear populations.Podobno kot pri drugih vrstah velikih zveri se tudi pri rjavemu medvedu njegovo območje razširjenosti in številčnost povečujeta v več delih Evrope, in to ob različnih upravljavskih pristopih. Vendar uspešno širjenje vrste vselej zahteva specifične biološke in varstvene pogoje na individualni in populacijski ravni. V gosto poseljeni Evropi širjenje medveda pogosto spremljajo tudi konflikti s človekom. Za pravočasno napovedovanje in racionalno preprečevanje konfliktnih situacij s človekom in s tem lajšanja procesa odločanja so ključne zanesljive prostorske raziskave. Te nam omogočajo prepoznavanje potencialnih habitatov za medveda in območij/koridorjev, ki so ključna za ohranjanje povezljivosti populacije. V prvi fazi pričujoče raziskave smo zato izvedli večstopenjsko hierarhično prostorsko eksplicitno napovedno modeliranje habitatne ustreznosti prostora (scale integrated RSF), s katerim smo lahko prepoznali glavne omejitvene dejavnike rabe prostora za tri obravnavane medvedje populacije oz demografske enote (Trentino-Švicarske, pred-Alpska in Dinarska) na treh prostorskih nivojih (populacijski nivo, nivo območja aktivnosti in nivo notranje rabe znotraj območij aktivnosti). Izvedli smo tudi analizo povezljivosti prostora med osnovnimi zaplatami habitata in opredelili prispevek vsake zaplate k %vitalnosti% celotne medvedje populacije v raziskovalnem območju. Končno smo z namenom lažjega prepoznavanja potreb po prihodnjih presojah vplivov posegov na okolje (PVO) opredelili še najbolj verjetne prehode med habitatnimi krpami (least-cost paths). Na osnovi napovednih spremenljivk, ki opisujejo rabo tal, reliefne značilnosti in prisotnost človeka (npr. ceste, naselja) smo pripravili modele habitatne ustreznosti prostora za medveda in prepoznali tudi razlike v habitatnem izboru med 3 obravnavanimi populacijami in prostorskimi merili. V vseh treh populacijah so medvedi primarno izbirali gozdnata območja, so pa med populacijami in prostorskimi merili opazne razlike v rabi/pomenu ostalih okoljskih spremenljivk. Zlasti odstopa skupina medvedov v Trentinu, za katere je značilna izbira bolj nedostopnih območij (težji, topografsko bolj razgiban teren). Naš prostorsko eksplicitni model kaže, da je v obravnavanem območju veliko habitata, ki je primeren za medveda, vendar pa je zanj značilna močna fragmentiranost. Največje in najbolj pomembne zaplate habitata za povezljivost populacije se nahajajo na območju trenutne razširjenosti vrste, z najbolj primernim habitatom na območju pred-Alpske in Dinarske populacije. Zadostno povezanost najprimernejših zaplat (ki so dovolj velike, da v njih lahko žive samice % medvedke), bi bilo mogoče vzdrževati preko ohranjanja dovolj povezanih habitatnih krp v koridorjih (step-stones). Za ohranjanje zadostne povezanosti prostora/habitatov, zagotavljanja povezav med deli populacij in populacijami medvedov ter za dolgoročno viabilnost medveda v območju Alp in Dinaridov je ključna poenotena % med državami usklajena - politika odločanja in rabe prostora

Patterns and correlates of claims for brown bear damage on a continental scale

Wildlife damage to human property threatens human-wildlife coexistence. Conflicts arising from wildlife damage in intensively managed landscapes often undermine conservation efforts, making damage mitigation and compensation of special concern for wildlife conservation. However, the mechanisms underlying the occurrence of damage and claims at large scales are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated the patterns of damage caused by brown bears Ursus arctos and its ecological and socio-economic correlates at a continental scale. We compiled information about compensation schemes across 26 countries in Europe in 2005-2012 and analysed the variation in the number of compensated claims in relation to (i) bear abundance, (ii) forest availability, (iii) human land use, (iv) management practices and (v) indicators of economic wealth. Most European countries have a posteriori compensation schemes based on damage verification, which, in many cases, have operated for more than 30 years. On average, over 3200 claims of bear damage were compensated annually in Europe. The majority of claims were for damage to livestock (59%), distributed throughout the bear range, followed by damage to apiaries (21%) and agriculture (17%), mainly in Mediterranean and eastern European countries. The mean number of compensated claims per bear and year ranged from 0·1 in Estonia to 8·5 in Norway. This variation was not only due to the differences in compensation schemes; damage claims were less numerous in areas with supplementary feeding and with a high proportion of agricultural land. However, observed variation in compensated damage was not related to bear abundance. Synthesis and applications. Compensation schemes, management practices and human land use influence the number of claims for brown bear damage, while bear abundance does not. Policies that ignore this complexity and focus on a single factor, such as bear population size, may not be effective in reducing claims. To be effective, policies should be based on integrative schemes that prioritize damage prevention and make it a condition of payment of compensation that preventive measures are applied. Such integrative schemes should focus mitigation efforts in areas or populations where damage claims are more likely to occur. Similar studies using different species and continents might further improve our understanding of conflicts arising from wildlife damage

Survival and divergence in a small group: The extraordinary genomic history of the endangered Apennine brown bear stragglers

About 100 km east of Rome, in the central Apennine Mountains, a critically endangered population of ∼50 brown bears live in complete isolation. Mating outside this population is prevented by several 100 km of bear-free territories. We exploited this natural experiment to better understand the gene and genomic consequences of surviving at extremely small population size. We found that brown bear populations in Europe lost connectivity since Neolithic times, when farming communities expanded and forest burning was used for land clearance. In central Italy, this resulted in a 40-fold population decline. The overall genomic impact of this decline included the complete loss of variation in the mitochondrial genome and along long stretches of the nuclear genome. Several private and deleterious amino acid changes were fixed by random drift; predicted effects include energy deficit, muscle weakness, anomalies in cranial and skeletal development, and reduced aggressiveness. Despite this extreme loss of diversity, Apennine bear genomes show nonrandom peaks of high variation, possibly maintained by balancing selection, at genomic regions significantly enriched for genes associated with immune and olfactory systems. Challenging the paradigm of increased extinction risk in small populations, we suggest that random fixation of deleterious alleles (i) can be an important driver of divergence in isolation, (ii) can be tolerated when balancing selection prevents random loss of variation at important genes, and (iii) is followed by or results directly in favorable behavioral changes

Prognostic value of lung ultrasound score performed in the Emergency Department in COVID-19 patients: a prospective multicenter study in central Italy

Lung ultrasound (LUS) is an essential tool for respiratory disease differential diagnosis at Emergency Department (ED), due to easy applicability and safety. During Sars-Cov 2 pandemic, LUS was widely used in every setting. This study aims to demonstrate the prognostic role of LUS independently of other factors and the identification of an LUS score cut-off to be applied in the ED. A multi-center prospective study was conducted on 285 patients, 123 from Pisa University Hospital, 162 from S. Maria Misericordia Hospital of Perugia. All patients received LUS examination by expert sonographers within 48 hours of admission with the same methodology. Univariate logistic analysis demonstrated that LUS is a mortality predictor, OR 2.8 (CL1.5-5.1). Using LUS score cut-off 1.3, the OR was 6.7 (CL2.7-1.6). In multivariate logistic analysis, LUS score significantly predicted death, independently of other factors. ROC curves comparison demonstrated that the introduction of LUS score <1.3 to a multifactorial model improved the association with mortality (AUC 0.76vs0.84, p=0.04). LUS combined with clinical, anamnestic, laboratory, and blood gas parameters, would allow an effective prognostic stratification in Sars-Cov2 patients at ED

Isotopic signature in isolated south-western populations of European brown bear (Ursus arctos)

Stable isotope analysis of animal tissue samples is increasingly used to study the trophic ecology of target species. The isotopic signatures respond to the type of diet, but also to the environmental conditions of their habitat. In the case of omnivorous, seasonal or opportunistic feeding species, the interpretation of isotopic values is more complex, as it is largely determined by food selection, either due to individual choice or because of availability. We analysed C and N isotopes in brown bear (Ursus arctos) hair from four isolated populations of south-western Europe (Cantabrian, Pyrenees, Central Apennines and Alpine) accounting for the geographical and climatic differences among the four areas. We found inter-population differences in isotopic signatures that cannot be attributed to climatic differences alone, indicating that at least some bears from relatively higher altitude populations experiencing higher precipitation (Pyrenees) show a greater consumption of animal foods than those from lower altitudes (Cantabrian and Apennines). The quantification of isotopic niche space using Layman’s metrics identified significant similarities between the Cantabrian and Central Apennine samples that markedly differ from the Pyrenean and Alpine. Our study provides a baseline to allow further comparisons in isotopic niche spaces in a broad ranged omnivorous mammal, whose European distribution requires further conservation attention especially for southern isolated populations

Data integration for inference about spatial processes: A model-based approach to test and account for data inconsistency.

Recently-developed methods that integrate multiple data sources arising from the same ecological processes have typically utilized structured data from well-defined sampling protocols (e.g., capture-recapture and telemetry). Despite this new methodological focus, the value of opportunistic data for improving inference about spatial ecological processes is unclear and, perhaps more importantly, no procedures are available to formally test whether parameter estimates are consistent across data sources and whether they are suitable for integration. Using data collected on the reintroduced brown bear population in the Italian Alps, a population of conservation importance, we combined data from three sources: traditional spatial capture-recapture data, telemetry data, and opportunistic data. We developed a fully integrated spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model that included a model-based test for data consistency to first compare model estimates using different combinations of data, and then, by acknowledging data-type differences, evaluate parameter consistency. We demonstrate that opportunistic data lend itself naturally to integration within the SCR framework and highlight the value of opportunistic data for improving inference about space use and population size. This is particularly relevant in studies of rare or elusive species, where the number of spatial encounters is usually small and where additional observations are of high value. In addition, our results highlight the importance of testing and accounting for inconsistencies in spatial information from structured and unstructured data so as to avoid the risk of spurious or averaged estimates of space use and consequently, of population size. Our work supports the use of a single modeling framework to combine spatially-referenced data while also accounting for parameter consistency

Action A3

As for other large carnivores in Europe, the brown bear shows a trend of recovering under different management scenarios. However, this recovery comes with specific biological and conservation requirements at individual and population levels often followed by conflicts in a highly humanized continent. To foresee conflicts with humans and to facilitate decisionmaking, spatially-explicit research is required to identify potential habitats and the connectivity of fragmented bear populations. First, we conducted multiscale modeling based on scale-integrated resource selection functions (SRSFs) to identify drivers shaping the spaceuse of three bear populations/demographic units (Trentino-Swiss, pre-Alps, and Dinaric), and across 3 scales of space (population distribution, home range establishment, and use of individual home range). Secondly, we also conducted an analysis of the connectivity patterns of suitable habitat patches (nodes) to identify the potential importance of each node to contribute to individual mobility, survival, and population connectivity. Lastly, to support further environmental impact assessment analyses, we identified the most plausible least-cost paths connecting different areas of the same large patch with itself and surrounding patches. Using topographic, landcover, and anthropogenic predictors, our analytical approach transcended from scale dependence bias to produce a predictive map on habitat suitability while delivered information on habitat selection trends for each population. Bears mostly selected forest habitats in all the populationshowever, habitat selection differed for the other variables among populations and scales, especially in the Trentino area where the species selected the most intricate topography. Predictive maps revealed a broad range of suitable but fragmented patches of bear habitat. The largest and most important patches for connectivity occurred in the current distribution range of the species, with the most suitable habitat lying in the pre-Alpine and Dinaric populations. Connecting viable patches to host female homeranges is possible through stepping-stone patches of corridors reachable within the estimated dispersal distance of females. Unified transnational decision-making is required for the conservation of stepping-stone patches, facilitate bear mobility, and ultimately connect bear populations.Podobno kot pri drugih vrstah velikih zveri se tudi pri rjavemu medvedu njegovo območje razširjenosti in številčnost povečujeta v več delih Evrope, in to ob različnih upravljavskih pristopih. Vendar uspešno širjenje vrste vselej zahteva specifične biološke in varstvene pogoje na individualni in populacijski ravni. V gosto poseljeni Evropi širjenje medveda pogosto spremljajo tudi konflikti s človekom. Za pravočasno napovedovanje in racionalno preprečevanje konfliktnih situacij s človekom in s tem lajšanja procesa odločanja so ključne zanesljive prostorske raziskave. Te nam omogočajo prepoznavanje potencialnih habitatov za medveda in območij/koridorjev, ki so ključna za ohranjanje povezljivosti populacije. V prvi fazi pričujoče raziskave smo zato izvedli večstopenjsko hierarhično prostorsko eksplicitno napovedno modeliranje habitatne ustreznosti prostora (scale integrated RSF), s katerim smo lahko prepoznali glavne omejitvene dejavnike rabe prostora za tri obravnavane medvedje populacije oz demografske enote (Trentino-Švicarske, pred-Alpska in Dinarska) na treh prostorskih nivojih (populacijski nivo, nivo območja aktivnosti in nivo notranje rabe znotraj območij aktivnosti). Izvedli smo tudi analizo povezljivosti prostora med osnovnimi zaplatami habitata in opredelili prispevek vsake zaplate k %vitalnosti% celotne medvedje populacije v raziskovalnem območju. Končno smo z namenom lažjega prepoznavanja potreb po prihodnjih presojah vplivov posegov na okolje (PVO) opredelili še najbolj verjetne prehode med habitatnimi krpami (least-cost paths). Na osnovi napovednih spremenljivk, ki opisujejo rabo tal, reliefne značilnosti in prisotnost človeka (npr. ceste, naselja) smo pripravili modele habitatne ustreznosti prostora za medveda in prepoznali tudi razlike v habitatnem izboru med 3 obravnavanimi populacijami in prostorskimi merili. V vseh treh populacijah so medvedi primarno izbirali gozdnata območja, so pa med populacijami in prostorskimi merili opazne razlike v rabi/pomenu ostalih okoljskih spremenljivk. Zlasti odstopa skupina medvedov v Trentinu, za katere je značilna izbira bolj nedostopnih območij (težji, topografsko bolj razgiban teren). Naš prostorsko eksplicitni model kaže, da je v obravnavanem območju veliko habitata, ki je primeren za medveda, vendar pa je zanj značilna močna fragmentiranost. Največje in najbolj pomembne zaplate habitata za povezljivost populacije se nahajajo na območju trenutne razširjenosti vrste, z najbolj primernim habitatom na območju pred-Alpske in Dinarske populacije. Zadostno povezanost najprimernejših zaplat (ki so dovolj velike, da v njih lahko žive samice % medvedke), bi bilo mogoče vzdrževati preko ohranjanja dovolj povezanih habitatnih krp v koridorjih (step-stones). Za ohranjanje zadostne povezanosti prostora/habitatov, zagotavljanja povezav med deli populacij in populacijami medvedov ter za dolgoročno viabilnost medveda v območju Alp in Dinaridov je ključna poenotena % med državami usklajena - politika odločanja in rabe prostora

Data integration for inference about spatial processes: A model-based approach to test and account for data inconsistency

<div><p>Recently-developed methods that integrate multiple data sources arising from the same ecological processes have typically utilized structured data from well-defined sampling protocols (e.g., capture-recapture and telemetry). Despite this new methodological focus, the value of opportunistic data for improving inference about spatial ecological processes is unclear and, perhaps more importantly, no procedures are available to formally test whether parameter estimates are consistent across data sources and whether they are suitable for integration. Using data collected on the reintroduced brown bear population in the Italian Alps, a population of conservation importance, we combined data from three sources: traditional spatial capture-recapture data, telemetry data, and opportunistic data. We developed a fully integrated spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model that included a model-based test for data consistency to first compare model estimates using different combinations of data, and then, by acknowledging data-type differences, evaluate parameter consistency. We demonstrate that opportunistic data lend itself naturally to integration within the SCR framework and highlight the value of opportunistic data for improving inference about space use and population size. This is particularly relevant in studies of rare or elusive species, where the number of spatial encounters is usually small and where additional observations are of high value. In addition, our results highlight the importance of testing and accounting for inconsistencies in spatial information from structured and unstructured data so as to avoid the risk of spurious or averaged estimates of space use and consequently, of population size. Our work supports the use of a single modeling framework to combine spatially-referenced data while also accounting for parameter consistency.</p></div