Statistical methods to correct for verification bias in diagnostic studies are inadequate when there are few false negatives: a simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A common feature of diagnostic research is that results for a diagnostic gold standard are available primarily for patients who are positive for the test under investigation. Data from such studies are subject to what has been termed "verification bias". We evaluated statistical methods for verification bias correction when there are few false negatives.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A simulation study was conducted of a screening study subject to verification bias. We compared estimates of the area-under-the-curve (AUC) corrected for verification bias varying both the rate and mechanism of verification.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a single simulated data set, varying false negatives from 0 to 4 led to verification bias corrected AUCs ranging from 0.550 to 0.852. Excess variation associated with low numbers of false negatives was confirmed in simulation studies and by analyses of published studies that incorporated verification bias correction. The 2.5^th– 97.5^thcentile range constituted as much as 60% of the possible range of AUCs for some simulations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Screening programs are designed such that there are few false negatives. Standard statistical methods for verification bias correction are inadequate in this circumstance.</p

Search for CP violation in D0 and D+ decays

A high statistics sample of photoproduced charm particles from the FOCUS (E831) experiment at Fermilab has been used to search for CP violation in the Cabibbo suppressed decay modes D+ to K-K+pi+, D0 to K-K+ and D0 to pi-pi+. We have measured the following CP asymmetry parameters: A_CP(K-K+pi+) = +0.006 +/- 0.011 +/- 0.005, A_CP(K-K+) = -0.001 +/- 0.022 +/- 0.015 and A_CP(pi-pi+) = +0.048 +/- 0.039 +/- 0.025 where the first error is statistical and the second error is systematic. These asymmetries are consistent with zero with smaller errors than previous measurements.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

A Study of D0 --> K0(S) K0(S) X Decay Channels

Using data from the FOCUS experiment (FNAL-E831), we report on the decay of $D^0$ mesons into final states containing more than one $K^0_S$. We present evidence for two Cabibbo favored decay modes, $D^0\to K^0_SK^0_S K^- \pi^+$ and $D^0\to K^0_SK^0_S K^+ \pi^-$, and measure their combined branching fraction relative to $D^0\to \bar{K} ^0\pi^+\pi^-$ to be $\frac{\Gamma(D^0\to K^0_SK^0_SK^{\pm}\pi^{\mp})}{\Gamma(D^0\to \bar{K} ^0\pi^+\pi^-)}$ = 0.0106 $\pm$ 0.0019 $\pm$ 0.0010. Further, we report new measurements of $\frac{\Gamma(D^0\to K^0_SK^0_SK^0_S)}{\Gamma(D^0\to \bar{K} ^0\pi^+\pi^-)}$ = 0.0179 $\pm$ 0.0027 $\pm$ 0.0026, $\frac{\Gamma(D^0\to K^0\bar{K} ^0)}{\Gamma(D^0\to \bar{K} ^0\pi^+\pi^-)}$ = 0.0144 $\pm$ 0.0032 $\pm$ 0.0016, and $\frac{\Gamma(D^0\to K^0_SK^0_S\pi^+\pi^-)}{\Gamma(D^0\to \bar{K} ^0\pi^+\pi^-)}$ = 0.0208 $\pm$ 0.0035 $\pm$ 0.0021 where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, typos correcte

A change in the optical polarization associated with a gamma-ray flare in the blazar 3C 279

It is widely accepted that strong and variable radiation detected over all accessible energy bands in a number of active galaxies arises from a relativistic, Doppler-boosted jet pointing close to our line of sight. The size of the emitting zone and the location of this region relative to the central supermassive black hole are, however, poorly known, with estimates ranging from light-hours to a light-year or more. Here we report the coincidence of a gamma-ray flare with a dramatic change of optical polarization angle. This provides evidence for co-spatiality of optical and gamma-ray emission regions and indicates a highly ordered jet magnetic field. The results also require a non-axisymmetric structure of the emission zone, implying a curved trajectory for the emitting material within the jet, with the dissipation region located at a considerable distance from the black hole, at about 10^5 gravitational radii.Comment: Published in Nature issued on 18 February 2010. Corresponding authors: Masaaki Hayashida and Greg Madejsk

Evaluation of Urine CCA Assays for Detection of Schistosoma mansoni Infection in Western Kenya

Although accurate assessment of the prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni is important for the design and evaluation of control programs, the most widely used tools for diagnosis are limited by suboptimal sensitivity, slow turn-around-time, or inability to distinguish current from former infections. Recently, two tests that detect circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) in urine of patients with schistosomiasis became commercially available. As part of a larger study on schistosomiasis prevalence in young children, we evaluated the performance and diagnostic accuracy of these tests—the carbon test strip designed for use in the laboratory and the cassette format test intended for field use. In comparison to 6 Kato-Katz exams, the carbon and cassette CCA tests had sensitivities of 88.4% and 94.2% and specificities of 70.9% and 59.4%, respectively. However, because of the known limitations of the Kato-Katz assay, we also utilized latent class analysis (LCA) incorporating the CCA, Kato-Katz, and schistosome-specific antibody results to determine their sensitivities and specificities. The laboratory-based CCA test had a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 89.4% by LCA while the cassette test had a sensitivity of 96.3% and a specificity of 74.7%. The intensity of the reaction in both urine CCA tests reflected stool egg burden and their performance was not affected by the presence of soil transmitted helminth infections. Our results suggest that urine-based assays for CCA may be valuable in screening for S. mansoni infections

Measurement of the D+ and Ds+ decays into K+K-K+

We present the first clear observation of the doubly Cabibbo suppressed decay D+ --> K-K+K+ and the first observation of the singly Cabibbo suppressed decay Ds+ --> K-K+K+. These signals have been obtained by analyzing the high statistics sample of photoproduced charm particles of the FOCUS(E831) experiment at Fermilab. We measure the following relative branching ratios: Gamma(D+ --> K-K+K+)/Gamma(D+ --> K-pi+pi+) = (9.49 +/- 2.17(statistical) +/- 0.22(systematic))x10^-4 and Gamma(Ds+ --> K-K+K+)/Gamma(Ds+ --> K-K+pi+) = (8.95 +/- 2.12(statistical) +2.24(syst.) -2.31(syst.))x10^-3

Measurement of the Ωc0\Omega_c^0 Lifetime

The FOCUS experiment(FNAL-E831) has used two channels, $\Omega^- \pi^+$ and $\Xi^-K^- \pi^+ \pi^+$,to measure the lifetime of the $\Omega_c^0$ charmed baryon. From a sample of $64 \pm 14$ signal events at a mass of 2.698 GeV/$c^2$, we measure an $\Omega_c^0$ lifetime of $72 \pm 11$ (stat.) $\pm 11$ (sys.) fs, substantially improving upon the current world average.Comment: 12 pages and 5 figure

Emerging concepts in biomarker discovery; The US-Japan workshop on immunological molecular markers in oncology

Supported by the Office of International Affairs, National Cancer Institute (NCI), the "US-Japan Workshop on Immunological Biomarkers in Oncology" was held in March 2009. The workshop was related to a task force launched by the International Society for the Biological Therapy of Cancer (iSBTc) and the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to identify strategies for biomarker discovery and validation in the field of biotherapy. The effort will culminate on October 28th 2009 in the "iSBTc-FDA-NCI Workshop on Prognostic and Predictive Immunologic Biomarkers in Cancer", which will be held in Washington DC in association with the Annual Meeting. The purposes of the US-Japan workshop were a) to discuss novel approaches to enhance the discovery of predictive and/or prognostic markers in cancer immunotherapy; b) to define the state of the science in biomarker discovery and validation. The participation of Japanese and US scientists provided the opportunity to identify shared or discordant themes across the distinct immune genetic background and the diverse prevalence of disease between the two Nations

Reporting Recommendations for Tumor Marker Prognostic Studies (REMARK): Explanation and Elaboration

The REMARK “elaboration and explanation” guideline, by Doug Altman and colleagues, provides a detailed reference for authors on important issues to consider when designing, conducting, and analyzing tumor marker prognostic studies