Policy volatility and growth

The paper aims to examine how fiscal and monetary volatility might affect the balanced economic growth rate using a standard monetary growth model characterized by nominal wage rigidity and productive public spending. The model shows that any type of shock — monetary or fiscal — can generate either a negative or positive relationship between short-run volatility and long-run growth, critically de- pending on the size of government and the elasticity of output with respect to labor/ capital. In particular, given the labor income share, it shows that excessive government spending may cause the impact of fiscal volatility on long-run growth to turn from positive to negative. In addition, a rise in the volatility of the monetary shock is capable of generating either an increase or decrease in the mean of growth. With the range of the labor share values in reality, the model produces results consistent with the fact that the relationship between volatility and growth is generally found empirically to be more negative in developing than in developed countries. The model can be seen as a further explanation for the ambiguous empirical evidence in the existing literature.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone

On endogenous growth under uncertainty

This paper incorporates uncertainty in two distinct models of endogenous growth. In both models the representative agent is uncertain about the productivity of knowledge creation, as represented by a probability measure over the relevant parameter. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of risk or volatility in productivity of knowledge creation on the decision variables and the expected long-run growth rate. Both the first and the second models may explain part of the observed negative link between volatility and growth

Joint venture buy-outs under uncertainty

This paper provides a theory of joint venture buy-outs in the presence of demand uncertainty. In an infinite horizon framework with demand uncertainty, we consider a foreign firm's decision on whether to form a joint venture or to open a fully owned subsidiary. Without the possibility of future share adjustment, the foreign firm enters the market through a joint venture if the host-country firm helps to reduce the uncertainty significantly. Consequently, the firm enters at an earlier point in time compared to the situation in which opening a fully owned subsidiary is the only option to the firm. The possibility of future share adjustment in the joint venture further increases the incentive to speed up foreign investment. Although the possibility of share adjustment results in a joint venture buy-out and can reduce the future profits of the host-country firm, it may increase host-country welfare by attracting foreign investment at an earlier point in time. We show the implications of learning in the joint venture. © 2011 The Authors. The Journal of Industrial Economic

Are older workers overpaid? A literature review

It is widely believed that wage and productivity profiles of individual workers do not coincide at all ages. We give an overview of the theories which provide a rationale for this, and discuss the empirical literature. Human capital theories typically imply that wages rise with tenure, so that job reallocation at old age would imply a wage cut. Incentive theories typically imply that wages exceed productivity at the end of a worker's career. Bargaining power of unions may also lead to 'overpayment' of older workers. Some general conclusions regarding the wages of older workers are formulated on basis of the authors' reading of the empirical literature

Evaluation of the prenatal diagnosis of neural tube defects by ultrasonographic examination in different centres across Europe.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluation of prenatal diagnosis of neural tube defects by ultrasound examination in unselected populations across Europe. SETTING: Prenatal ultrasound units in areas that report to contributing congenital malformation registers. METHODS: All cases with a suspected or confirmed neural tube defect and delivered within the 30 month study period were identified from 18 Congenital Malformation Registers from 11 European countries. Data on the pregnancy, prenatal scans, outcome of pregnancy, and information on different screening policies for each country were analysed. RESULTS: 670766 deliveries occurred in the area covered by the registers during the study period. A neural tube defect was diagnosed at delivery in 542 cases. In 84% of these, the lesion was isolated (166 anencephaly, 252 spina bifida, 35 encephalocele). Of the 166 isolated cases with anencephaly, 96% were correctly identified prenatally; one was missed on scan, two were wrongly diagnosed, and four were not scanned (sensitivity 98%). 84% of the prenatal diagnoses were made before 24 weeks' gestation; 86% of isolated anencephalic pregnancies were terminated. Of the 252 cases of isolated spina bifida, 171 (68%) were correctly identified prenatally; 66% of these before 24 weeks' gestation. The diagnosis was missed on scan in 60 cases and 21 were not scanned (sensitivity 75%). The mean reduction in birth prevalence because of termination of pregnancy for spina bifida was 49% (range 6-100%). There was a wide variation between centres in prenatal detection rate (33-100%), termination of pregnancy of prenatally diagnosed cases (17-100%), and gestation both at diagnosis and termination of pregnancy. CONCLUSION: A high prenatal detection rate for anencephaly was reported by all registers. There is a large variation in prenatal detection and termination rates for spina bifida between centres, reflecting differences both in policy and culture

Evaluation of the prenatal diagnosis of neural tube defects by fetal ultrasonographic examination in different centres across Europe

Objective-Evaluation of prenatal diagnosis of neural tube defects by ultrasound examination in unselected populations across Europe. Setting-Prenatal ultrasound units in areas that report to contributing congenital malformation registers. Methods-All cases with a suspected or confirmed neural tube defect and delivered within the 30 month study period were identified from 18 Congenital Malformation Registers from 11 European countries. Data on the pregnancy, prenatal scans, outcome of pregnancy, and information on different screening policies for each country were analysed. Results-670 766 deliveries occurred in the area covered by the registers during the study period. A neural tube defect was diagnosed at delivery in 542 cases. In 84% of these, the lesion was isolated (166 anencephaly, 252 spina bifida, 35 encephalocele). Of the 166 isolated cases with anencephaly, 96% were correctly identified prenatally; one was missed on scan, two were wrongly diagnosed, and four were not scanned (sensitivity 98%). 84% of the prenatal diagnoses were made before 24 weeks' gestation; 86% of isolated anencephalic pregnancies were terminated. Of the 252 cases of isolated spina bifida, 171 (68%) were correctly identified prenatally; 66% of these before 24 weeks' gestation. The diagnosis was missed on scan in 60 cases and 21 were not scanned (sensitivity 75%). The mean reduction in birth prevalence because of termination of pregnancy for spina bifida was 49% (range 6-100%). There was a wide variation between centres in prenatal detection rate (33-100%), termination of pregnancy of prenatally diagnosed cases (17-100%), and gestation both at diagnosis and termination of pregnancy. Conclusion-A high prenatal detection rate for anencephaly was reported by all registers. There is a large variation in prenatal detection and termination rates for spina bifida between centres, reflecting differences both in policy and culture