Mean First Passage Time in Periodic Attractors

The properties of the mean first passage time in a system characterized by multiple periodic attractors are studied. Using a transformation from a high dimensional space to 1D, the problem is reduced to a stochastic process along the path from the fixed point attractor to a saddle point located between two neighboring attractors. It is found that the time to switch between attractors depends on the effective size of the attractors, $\tau$, the noise, $\epsilon$, and the potential difference between the attractor and an adjacent saddle point as: $~T = {c \over \tau} \exp({\tau \over \epsilon} \Delta {\cal{U}})~$; the ratio between the sizes of the two attractors affects $\Delta {\cal{U}}$. The result is obtained analytically for small $\tau$ and confirmed by numerical simulations. Possible implications that may arise from the model and results are discussed.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, submitted to journal of physics

Mechanics and dynamics of X-chromosome pairing at X inactivation

At the onset of X-chromosome inactivation, the vital process whereby female mammalian cells equalize X products with respect to males, the X chromosomes are colocalized along their Xic (X-inactivation center) regions. The mechanism inducing recognition and pairing of the X’s remains, though, elusive. Starting from recent discoveries on the molecular factors and on the DNA sequences (the so-called "pairing sites") involved, we dissect the mechanical basis of Xic colocalization by using a statistical physics model. We show that soluble DNA-specific binding molecules, such as those experimentally identified, can be indeed sufficient to induce the spontaneous colocalization of the homologous chromosomes but only when their concentration, or chemical affinity, rises above a threshold value as a consequence of a thermodynamic phase transition. We derive the likelihood of pairing and its probability distribution. Chromosome dynamics has two stages: an initial independent Brownian diffusion followed, after a characteristic time scale, by recognition and pairing. Finally, we investigate the effects of DNA deletion/insertions in the region of pairing sites and compare model predictions to available experimental data

Normal scaling in globally conserved interface-controlled coarsening of fractal clusters

Globally conserved interface-controlled coarsening of fractal clusters exhibits dynamic scale invariance and normal scaling. This is demonstrated by a numerical solution of the Ginzburg-Landau equation with a global conservation law. The sharp-interface limit of this equation is volume preserving motion by mean curvature. The scaled form of the correlation function has a power-law tail accommodating the fractal initial condition. The coarsening length exhibits normal scaling with time. Finally, shrinking of the fractal clusters with time is observed. The difference between global and local conservation is discussed.Comment: 4 pages, 3 eps figure

Game theory of mind

This paper introduces a model of ‘theory of mind’, namely, how we represent the intentions and goals of others to optimise our mutual interactions. We draw on ideas from optimum control and game theory to provide a ‘game theory of mind’. First, we consider the representations of goals in terms of value functions that are prescribed by utility or rewards. Critically, the joint value functions and ensuing behaviour are optimised recursively, under the assumption that I represent your value function, your representation of mine, your representation of my representation of yours, and so on ad infinitum. However, if we assume that the degree of recursion is bounded, then players need to estimate the opponent's degree of recursion (i.e., sophistication) to respond optimally. This induces a problem of inferring the opponent's sophistication, given behavioural exchanges. We show it is possible to deduce whether players make inferences about each other and quantify their sophistication on the basis of choices in sequential games. This rests on comparing generative models of choices with, and without, inference. Model comparison is demonstrated using simulated and real data from a ‘stag-hunt’. Finally, we note that exactly the same sophisticated behaviour can be achieved by optimising the utility function itself (through prosocial utility), producing unsophisticated but apparently altruistic agents. This may be relevant ethologically in hierarchal game theory and coevolution

Elevated levels of diesel range organic compounds in groundwater near Marcellus gas operations are derived from surface activities

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of American 112 (2015): 13184-13189, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1511474112 .Hundreds of organic chemicals are utilized during natural gas extraction via high volume hydraulic fracturing (HVHF). However, it is unclear if these chemicals, injected into deep shale horizons, reach shallow groundwater aquifers and impact local water quality, either from deep underground injection sites or from the surface or shallow subsurface. Here, we report detectable levels of organic compounds in shallow groundwater samples from private residential wells overlying the Marcellus Shale in northeastern Pennsylvania. Analyses of purgeable and extractable organic compounds from 64 groundwater samples revealed trace levels of volatile organic compounds, well below the Environmental Protection Agency’s maximum contaminant levels, and low levels of both gasoline range (GRO; 0-8 ppb) and diesel range organic compounds (DRO; 0-157 ppb). A compound-specific analysis revealed the presence of bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate, which is a disclosed HVHF additive, that was notably absent in a representative geogenic water sample and field blanks. Pairing these analyses with 1) inorganic chemical fingerprinting of deep saline groundwater, 2) characteristic noble gas isotopes, and 3) spatial relationships between active shale gas extraction wells and wells with disclosed environmental health and safety (EHS) violations, we differentiate between a chemical signature associated with naturally occurring saline groundwater and a one associated with alternative anthropogenic routes from the surface (e.g., accidental spills or leaks). The data support a transport mechanism of DRO to groundwater via accidental release of fracturing fluid chemicals derived from the surface rather than subsurface flow of these fluids from the underlying shale formation.The authors thank Duke University’s Pratt School of Engineering and the National Science Foundation’s CBET Grant Number 1336702 and NSF EAGER (EAR-1249255) for financial support.2016-04-1

GATE : a simulation toolkit for PET and SPECT

Monte Carlo simulation is an essential tool in emission tomography that can assist in the design of new medical imaging devices, the optimization of acquisition protocols, and the development or assessment of image reconstruction algorithms and correction techniques. GATE, the Geant4 Application for Tomographic Emission, encapsulates the Geant4 libraries to achieve a modular, versatile, scripted simulation toolkit adapted to the field of nuclear medicine. In particular, GATE allows the description of time-dependent phenomena such as source or detector movement, and source decay kinetics. This feature makes it possible to simulate time curves under realistic acquisition conditions and to test dynamic reconstruction algorithms. A public release of GATE licensed under the GNU Lesser General Public License can be downloaded at the address http://www-lphe.epfl.ch/GATE/

The economics of debt clearing mechanisms

We examine the evolution of decentralized clearinghouse mechanisms from the 13th to the 18th century; in particular, we explore the clearing of non- or limitedtradable debts like bills of exchange. We construct a theoretical model of these clearinghouse mechanisms, similar to the models in the theoretical matching literature, and show that specific decentralized multilateral clearing algorithms known as rescontre, skontrieren or virement des parties used by merchants were efficient in specific historical contexts. We can explain both the evolutionary self-organizing emergence of late medieval and early modern fairs, and its robustness during the 17th and 18th century

Party-group relations in new southern European democracies in the crisis era

UID/CPO/04627/2013 PTDC/IVC-CPO/1864/2014publishersversionpublishe

Different paths to the modern state in Europe: the interaction between domestic political economy and interstate competition

Theoretical work on state formation and capacity has focused mostly on early modern Europe and on the experience of western European states during this period. While a number of European states monopolized domestic tax collection and achieved gains in state capacity during the early modern era, for others revenues stagnated or even declined, and these variations motivated alternative hypotheses for determinants of fiscal and state capacity. In this study we test the basic hypotheses in the existing literature making use of the large date set we have compiled for all of the leading states across the continent. We find strong empirical support for two prevailing threads in the literature, arguing respectively that interstate wars and changes in economic structure towards an urbanized economy had positive fiscal impact. Regarding the main point of contention in the theoretical literature, whether it was representative or authoritarian political regimes that facilitated the gains in fiscal capacity, we do not find conclusive evidence that one performed better than the other. Instead, the empirical evidence we have gathered lends supports to the hypothesis that when under pressure of war, the fiscal performance of representative regimes was better in the more urbanized-commercial economies and the fiscal performance of authoritarian regimes was better in rural-agrarian economie

Design of a graphical and interactive interface for facilitating access to drug contraindications, cautions for use, interactions and adverse effects

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Drug iatrogeny is important but could be decreased if contraindications, cautions for use, drug interactions and adverse effects of drugs described in drug monographs were taken into account. However, the physician's time is limited during consultations, and this information is often not consulted. We describe here the design of "Mister VCM", a graphical interface based on the VCM graphical language, facilitating access to drug monographs. We also provide an assessment of the usability of this interface.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The "Mister VCM" interface was designed by dividing the screen into two parts: a graphical interactive one including VCM icons and synthetizing drug properties, a textual one presenting on demand drug monograph excerpts. The interface was evaluated over 11 volunteer general practitioners, trained in the use of "Mister VCM". They were asked to answer clinical questions related to fictitious randomly generated drug monographs, using a textual interface or "Mister VCM". When answering the questions, correctness of the responses and response time were recorded.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>"Mister VCM" is an interactive interface that displays VCM icons organized around an anatomical diagram of the human body with additional mental, etiological and physiological areas. Textual excerpts of the drug monograph can be displayed by clicking on the VCM icons. The interface can explicitly represent information implicit in the drug monograph, such as the absence of a given contraindication. Physicians made fewer errors with "Mister VCM" than with text (factor of 1.7; <it>p </it>= 0.034) and responded to questions 2.2 times faster (<it>p </it>< 0.001). The time gain with "Mister VCM" was greater for long monographs and questions with implicit replies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>"Mister VCM" seems to be a promising interface for accessing drug monographs. Similar interfaces could be developed for other medical domains, such as electronic patient records.</p