Should we doubt the cosmological constant?

While Bayesian model selection is a useful tool to discriminate between competing cosmological models, it only gives a relative rather than an absolute measure of how good a model is. Bayesian doubt introduces an unknown benchmark model against which the known models are compared, thereby obtaining an absolute measure of model performance in a Bayesian framework. We apply this new methodology to the problem of the dark energy equation of state, comparing an absolute upper bound on the Bayesian evidence for a presently unknown dark energy model against a collection of known models including a flat LambdaCDM scenario. We find a strong absolute upper bound to the Bayes factor B between the unknown model and LambdaCDM, giving B < 3. The posterior probability for doubt is found to be less than 6% (with a 1% prior doubt) while the probability for LambdaCDM rises from an initial 25% to just over 50% in light of the data. We conclude that LambdaCDM remains a sufficient phenomenological description of currently available observations and that there is little statistical room for model improvement.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

Astrophysical and Cosmological Implications of Large Volume String Compactifications

We study the spectrum, couplings and cosmological and astrophysical implications of the moduli fields for the class of Calabi-Yau IIB string compactifications for which moduli stabilisation leads to an exponentially large volume V ~ 10^{15} l_s^6 and an intermediate string scale m_s ~ 10^{11}GeV, with TeV-scale observable supersymmetry breaking. All K\"ahler moduli except for the overall volume are heavier than the susy breaking scale, with m ~ ln(M_P/m_{3/2}) m_{3/2} ~ (\ln(M_P/m_{3/2}))^2 m_{susy} ~ 500 TeV and, contrary to standard expectations, have matter couplings suppressed only by the string scale rather than the Planck scale. These decay to matter early in the history of the universe, with a reheat temperature T ~ 10^7 GeV, and are free from the cosmological moduli problem (CMP). The heavy moduli have a branching ratio to gravitino pairs of 10^{-30} and do not suffer from the gravitino overproduction problem. The overall volume modulus is a distinctive feature of these models and is an M_{planck}-coupled scalar of mass m ~ 1 MeV and subject to the CMP. A period of thermal inflation can help relax this problem. This field has a lifetime ~ 10^{24}s and can contribute to dark matter. It may be detected through its decays to 2\gamma or e^+e^-. If accessible the e^+e^- decay mode dominates, with Br(\chi \to 2 \gamma) suppressed by a factor (ln(M_P/m_{3/2}))^2. We consider the potential for detection of this field through different astrophysical sources and find that the observed gamma-ray background constrains \Omega_{\chi} <~ 10^{-4}. The decays of this field may generate the 511 keV emission line from the galactic centre observed by INTEGRAL/SPI.Comment: 31 pages, 2 figures; v2. refs adde

Chasing Brane Inflation in String-Theory

We investigate the embedding of brane anti-brane inflation into a concrete type IIB string theory compactification with all moduli fixed. Specifically, we are considering a D3-brane, whose position represents the inflaton $\phi$, in a warped conifold throat in the presence of supersymmetrically embedded D7-branes and an anti D3-brane localized at the tip of the warped conifold cone. After presenting the moduli stabilization analysis for a general D7-brane embedding, we concentrate on two explicit models, the Ouyang and the Kuperstein embeddings. We analyze whether the forces, induced by moduli stabilization and acting on the D3-brane, might cancel by fine-tuning such as to leave us with the original Coulomb attraction of the anti D3-brane as the driving force for inflation. For a large class of D7-brane embeddings we obtain a negative result. Cancelations are possible only for very small intervals of $\phi$ around an inflection point but not globally. For the most part of its motion the inflaton then feels a steep, non slow-roll potential. We study the inflationary dynamics induced by this potential.Comment: 34 pages, 4 figures. Final version published in JCA

Towards an Explicit Model of D-brane Inflation

We present a detailed analysis of an explicit model of warped D-brane inflation, incorporating the effects of moduli stabilization. We consider the potential for D3-brane motion in a warped conifold background that includes fluxes and holomorphically-embedded D7-branes involved in moduli stabilization. Although the D7-branes significantly modify the inflaton potential, they do not correct the quadratic term in the potential, and hence do not cause a uniform change in the slow-roll parameter eta. Nevertheless, we present a simple example based on the Kuperstein embedding of D7-branes, z_1=constant, in which the potential can be fine-tuned to be sufficiently flat for inflation. To derive this result, it is essential to incorporate the fact that the compactification volume changes slightly as the D3-brane moves. We stress that the compactification geometry dictates certain relationships among the parameters in the inflaton Lagrangian, and these microscopic constraints impose severe restrictions on the space of possible models. We note that the shape of the final inflaton potential differs from projections given in earlier studies: in configurations where inflation occurs, it does so near an inflection point. Finally, we comment on the difficulty of making precise cosmological predictions in this scenario. This is the companion paper to arXiv:0705.3837.Comment: 68 pages, 6 figures; v2: fixed typos, added refs and clarifications; v3: expanded discussion of inflection point inflatio

TeV physics and the Planck scale

Supersymmetry is one of the best motivated possibilities for new physics at the TeV scale. However, both concrete string constructions and phenomenological considerations suggest the possibility that the physics at the TeV scale could be more complicated than the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM), e.g., due to extended gauge symmetries, new vector-like supermultiplets with non-standard SU(2)xU(1) assignments, and extended Higgs sectors. We briefly comment on some of these possibilities, and discuss in more detail the class of extensions of the MSSM involving an additional standard model singlet field. The latter provides a solution to the $\mu$ problem, and allows significant modifications of the MSSM in the Higgs and neutralino sectors, with important consequences for collider physics, cold dark matter, and electroweak baryogenesis.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures. To appear in New Journal of Physic

A systematic review of methods used to study fish in saltmarsh flats

There is a growing body of research highlighting the importance of saltmarshes as habitats for fish for feeding, refuge from predation and reproduction. However, more work is needed on fish on vegetated marsh flats (or surfaces). We reviewed 60 studies that used 21 methods to sample fish assemblages on saltmarsh flats. Drop samplers, fyke nets and pop nets were most frequently employed, with considerably more studies being conducted in graminoid than succulent marsh. Reporting of sampling temporal and tidal details, environmental variables and fish attributes was inconsistent. Most of the papers focussed on one or more of conservation management, comparisons among habitat types, and the use of saltmarsh (including fish activity type or residency status). Important potential areas of research include the relationships between the fish assemblages of saltmarsh flats and coastal fisheries, the effects of invasive plant species and marsh restoration efforts in areas outside the United States, and the potential effects of sea-level rise on vegetated flats as fish habitat. Sampling methods that provide density measures are likely to be most useful for most of this research. Thus, drop samplers and pop nets are an appropriate choice, the former in graminoid saltmarshes and the latter in succulent saltmarshes

Curvature and isocurvature perturbations in two-field inflation

We study cosmological perturbations in two-field inflation, allowing for non-standard kinetic terms. We calculate analytically the spectra of curvature and isocurvature modes at Hubble crossing, up to first order in the slow-roll parameters. We also compute numerically the evolution of the curvature and isocurvature modes from well within the Hubble radius until the end of inflation. We show explicitly for a few examples, including the recently proposed model of ‘roulette’ inflation, how isocurvature perturbations affect significantly the curvature perturbation between Hubble crossing and the end of inflation.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/58173/2/jcap7_07_014.pd

CMBPol Mission Concept Study: Probing Inflation with CMB Polarization

We summarize the utility of precise cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization measurements as probes of the physics of inflation. We focus on the prospects for using CMB measurements to differentiate various inflationary mechanisms. In particular, a detection of primordial B-mode polarization would demonstrate that inflation occurred at a very high energy scale, and that the inflaton traversed a super-Planckian distance in field space. We explain how such a detection or constraint would illuminate aspects of physics at the Planck scale. Moreover, CMB measurements can constrain the scale-dependence and non-Gaussianity of the primordial fluctuations and limit the possibility of a significant isocurvature contribution. Each such limit provides crucial information on the underlying inflationary dynamics. Finally, we quantify these considerations by presenting forecasts for the sensitivities of a future satellite experiment to the inflationary parameters.Comment: 107 pages, 14 figures, 17 tables; Inflation Working Group contribution to the CMBPol Mission Concept Study; v2: typos fixed and references adde

Searching for the Standard Model in the String Landscape : SUSY GUTs

The goal of the present review article is to describe the ingredients necessary to find the Standard Model in the string landscape.Comment: 70 pages, 20 figures, this review article will be published in Reports on Progress in Physic

Planck 2015 results. XVIII. Background geometry and topology of the Universe

Maps of cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization from the 2015 release of Planck data provide the highestquality full-sky view of the surface of last scattering available to date. This enables us to detect possible departures from a globally isotropic cosmology. We present the first searches using CMB polarization for correlations induced by a possible non-trivial topology with a fundamental domain that intersects, or nearly intersects, the last-scattering surface (at comoving distance χrec), both via a direct scan for matched circular patterns at the intersections and by an optimal likelihood calculation for specific topologies. We specialize to flat spaces with cubic toroidal (T3) and slab (T1) topologies, finding that explicit searches for the latter are sensitive to other topologies with antipodal symmetry. These searches yield no detection of a compact topology with a scale below the diameter of the last-scattering surface. The limits on the radius ℛi of the largest sphere inscribed in the fundamental domain (at log-likelihood ratio Δlnℒ > −5 relative to a simply-connected flat Planck best-fit model) are: ℛi > 0.97 χrec for the T3 cubic torus; and ℛi > 0.56 χrec for the T1 slab. The limit for the T3 cubic torus from the matched-circles search is numerically equivalent, ℛi > 0.97 χrec at 99% confidence level from polarization data alone. We also perform a Bayesian search for an anisotropic global Bianchi VIIh geometry. In the non-physical setting, where the Bianchi cosmology is decoupled from the standard cosmology, Planck temperature data favour the inclusion of a Bianchi component with a Bayes factor of at least 2.3 units of log-evidence. However, the cosmological parameters that generate this pattern are in strong disagreement with those found from CMB anisotropy data alone. Fitting the induced polarization pattern for this model to the Planck data requires an amplitude of −0.10 ± 0.04 compared to the value of + 1 if the model were to be correct. In the physically motivated setting, where the Bianchi parameters are coupled and fitted simultaneously with the standard cosmological parameters, we find no evidence for a Bianchi VIIh cosmology and constrain the vorticity of such models to (ω/H)0 < 7.6 × 10-10 (95% CL)