Is Cycle 24 the Beginning of a Dalton-Like Minimum?

The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798-2010. The analysis shows that spotless days do not disappear abruptly in the transition towards an active sun. A comparison with past cycles indicates that the ongoing accumulation of spotless days is comparable to that of cycle 5 near the Dalton minimum and to that of cycles 12, 14 and 15. It also suggests that the ongoing cycle has as much as 20 \pm 8 spotless days left, from July 2010, before it reaches the next solar maximum. The last spotless day is predicted to be in December 2012, with an uncertainty of 11 months. This trend may serve as input to the solar dynamo theories.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures. The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Photospheric Magnetic Field: Relationship Between North-South Asymmetry and Flux Imbalance

Photospheric magnetic fields were studied using the Kitt Peak synoptic maps for 1976-2003. Only strong magnetic fields (B>100 G) of the equatorial region were taken into account. The north-south asymmetry of the magnetic fluxes was considered as well as the imbalance between positive and negative fluxes. The north-south asymmetry displays a regular alternation of the dominant hemisphere during the solar cycle: the northern hemisphere dominated in the ascending phase, the southern one in the descending phase during Solar Cycles 21-23. The sign of the imbalance did not change during the 11 years from one polar-field reversal to the next and always coincided with the sign of the Sun's polar magnetic field in the northern hemisphere. The dominant sign of leading sunspots in one of the hemispheres determines the sign of the magnetic-flux imbalance. The sign of the north-south asymmetry of the magnetic fluxes and the sign of the imbalance of the positive and the negative fluxes are related to the quarter of the 22-year magnetic cycle where the magnetic configuration of the Sun remains constant (from the minimum where the sunspot sign changes according to Hale's law to the magnetic-field reversal and from the reversal to the minimum). The sign of the north-south asymmetry for the time interval considered was determined by the phase of the 11-year cycle (before or after the reversal); the sign of the imbalance of the positive and the negative fluxes depends on both the phase of the 11-year cycle and on the parity of the solar cycle. The results obtained demonstrate the connection of the magnetic fields in active regions with the Sun's polar magnetic field in the northern hemisphere.Comment: 24 pages, 12 figures, 2 table

A Bayesian Analysis of the Correlations Among Sunspot Cycles

Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for which observational records are available. Here we carry out a sophisticated statistical analysis of the sunspot record that reaffirms these correlations, and sets up an empirical predictive framework for future cycles. An advantage of our approach is that it allows for rigorous assessment of both the statistical significance of various cycle features and the uncertainty associated with predictions. We summarize the data into three sequential relations that estimate the amplitude, duration, and time of rise to maximum for any cycle, given the values from the previous cycle. We find that there is no indication of a persistence in predictive power beyond one cycle, and conclude that the dynamo does not retain memory beyond one cycle. Based on sunspot records up to October 2011, we obtain, for Cycle 24, an estimated maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number of 97 +- 15, to occur in January--February 2014 +- 6 months.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Homologous Flares and Magnetic Field Topology in Active Region NOAA 10501 on 20 November 2003

We present and interpret observations of two morphologically homologous flares that occurred in active region (AR) NOAA 10501 on 20 November 2003. Both flares displayed four homologous H-alpha ribbons and were both accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The central flare ribbons were located at the site of an emerging bipole in the center of the active region. The negative polarity of this bipole fragmented in two main pieces, one rotating around the positive polarity by ~ 110 deg within 32 hours. We model the coronal magnetic field and compute its topology, using as boundary condition the magnetogram closest in time to each flare. In particular, we calculate the location of quasiseparatrix layers (QSLs) in order to understand the connectivity between the flare ribbons. Though several polarities were present in AR 10501, the global magnetic field topology corresponds to a quadrupolar magnetic field distribution without magnetic null points. For both flares, the photospheric traces of QSLs are similar and match well the locations of the four H-alpha ribbons. This globally unchanged topology and the continuous shearing by the rotating bipole are two key factors responsible for the flare homology. However, our analyses also indicate that different magnetic connectivity domains of the quadrupolar configuration become unstable during each flare, so that magnetic reconnection proceeds differently in both events.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures, Solar Physics (accepted

Evolution and Flare Activity of Delta-Sunspots in Cycle 23

The emergence and magnetic evolution of solar active regions (ARs) of beta-gamma-delta type, which are known to be highly flare-productive, were studied with the SOHO/MDI data in Cycle 23. We selected 31 ARs that can be observed from their birth phase, as unbiased samples for our study. From the analysis of the magnetic topology (twist and writhe), we obtained the following results. i) Emerging beta-gamma-delta ARs can be classified into three topological types as "quasi-beta", "writhed" and "top-to-top". ii) Among them, the "writhed" and "top-to-top" types tend to show high flare activity. iii) As the signs of twist and writhe agree with each other in most cases of the "writhed" type (12 cases out of 13), we propose a magnetic model in which the emerging flux regions in a beta-gamma-delta AR are not separated but united as a single structure below the solar surface. iv) Almost all the "writhed"-type ARs have downward knotted structures in the mid portion of the magnetic flux tube. This, we believe, is the essential property of beta-gamma-delta ARs. v) The flare activity of beta-gamma-delta ARs is highly correlated not only with the sunspot area but also with the magnetic complexity. vi) We suggest that there is a possible scaling-law between the flare index and the maximum umbral area

Response of the solar atmosphere to magnetic field evolution in a coronal hole region

Methods. We study an equatorial CH observed simultaneously by HINODE and STEREO on July 27, 2007. The HINODE/SP maps are adopted to derive the physical parameters of the photosphere and to research the magnetic field evolution and distribution. The G band and Ca II H images with high tempo-spatial resolution from HINODE/BFI and the multi-wavelength data from STEREO/EUVI are utilized to study the corresponding atmospheric response of different overlying layers. Results. We explore an emerging dipole locating at the CH boundary. Mini-scale arch filaments (AFs) accompanying the emerging dipole were observed with the Ca II H line. During the separation of the dipolar footpoints, three AFs appeared and expanded in turn. The first AF divided into two segments in its late stage, while the second and third AFs erupted in their late stages. The lifetimes of these three AFs are 4, 6, 10 minutes, and the two intervals between the three divisions or eruptions are 18 and 12 minutes, respectively. We display an example of mixed-polarity flux emergence of IN fields within the CH and present the corresponding chromospheric response. With the increase of the integrated magnetic flux, the brightness of the Ca II H images exhibits an increasing trend. We also study magnetic flux cancellations of NT fields locating at the CH boundary and present the obvious chromospheric and coronal response. We notice that the brighter regions seen in the 171 A images are relevant to the interacting magnetic elements. By examining the magnetic NT and IN elements and the response of different atmospheric layers, we obtain good positive linear correlations between the NT magnetic flux densities and the brightness of both G band (correlation coefficient 0.85) and Ca II H (correlation coefficient 0.58).Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures. A&A, in pres

The fluctuating \alpha-effect and Waldmeier relations in the nonlinear dynamo models

We study the possibility to reproduce the statistical relations of the sunspot activity cycle, like the so-called Waldmeier relations, the cycle period - amplitude and the cycle rise rate - amplitude relations, by means of the mean field dynamo models with the fluctuating \alpha-effect. The dynamo model includes the long-term fluctuations of the \alpha-effect and two types of the nonlinear feedback of the mean-field on the \alpha-effect including the algebraic quenching and the dynamic quenching due to the magnetic helicity generation. We found that the models are able to reproduce qualitatively and quantitatively the inclination and dispersion across the Waldmeier relations with the 20% fluctuations of the \alpha-effect. The models with the dynamic quenching are in a better agreement with observations than the models with the algebraic \alpha-quenching. We compare the statistical distributions of the modeled parameters, like the amplitude, period, the rise and decay rates of the sunspot cycles, with observations.Comment: revision, (add comment about effect of nonlinear diffusivity): 18 pages, 7 Figures, submitted to Physica Script

Solar cycle variations in the growth and decay of sunspot groups

We analysed the combined Greenwich (1874-1976) and Solar Optical Observatories Network (1977-2011) data on sunspot groups. The daily rate of change of the area of a spot group is computed using the differences between the epochs of the spot group observation on any two consecutive days during its life-time and between the corrected whole spot areas of the spot group at these epochs. Positive/negative value of the daily rate of change of the area of a spot group represents the growth/decay rate of the spot group. We found that the total amounts of growth and decay of spot groups whose life times > or = 2 days in a given time interval (say one-year) well correlate to the amount of activity in the same interval. We have also found that there exists a reasonably good correlation and an approximate linear relationship between the logarithmic values of the decay rate and area of the spot group at the first day of the corresponding consecutive days, largely suggesting that a large/small area (magnetic flux) decreases in a faster/slower rate. There exists a long-term variation (about 90-year) in the slope of the linear relationship. The solar cycle variation in the decay of spot groups may have a strong relationship with the corresponding variations in solar energetic phenomena such as solar flare activity. The decay of spot groups may also substantially contribute to the coherence relationship between the total solar irradiance and the solar activity variations.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Science. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1105.106

Protons in near earth orbit

The proton spectrum in the kinetic energy range 0.1 to 200 GeV was measured by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) during space shuttle flight STS-91 at an altitude of 380 km. Above the geomagnetic cutoff the observed spectrum is parameterized by a power law. Below the geomagnetic cutoff a substantial second spectrum was observed concentrated at equatorial latitudes with a flux ~ 70 m^-2 sec^-1 sr^-1. Most of these second spectrum protons follow a complicated trajectory and originate from a restricted geographic region.Comment: 19 pages, Latex, 7 .eps figure

A Study of Cosmic Ray Secondaries Induced by the Mir Space Station Using AMS-01

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) is a high energy particle physics experiment that will study cosmic rays in the $\sim 100 \mathrm{MeV}$ to $1 \mathrm{TeV}$ range and will be installed on the International Space Station (ISS) for at least 3 years. A first version of AMS-02, AMS-01, flew aboard the space shuttle \emph{Discovery} from June 2 to June 12, 1998, and collected $10^8$ cosmic ray triggers. Part of the \emph{Mir} space station was within the AMS-01 field of view during the four day \emph{Mir} docking phase of this flight. We have reconstructed an image of this part of the \emph{Mir} space station using secondary $\pi^-$ and $\mu^-$ emissions from primary cosmic rays interacting with \emph{Mir}. This is the first time this reconstruction was performed in AMS-01, and it is important for understanding potential backgrounds during the 3 year AMS-02 mission.Comment: To be submitted to NIM B Added material requested by referee. Minor stylistic and grammer change