Cost-sensitive learning classification strategy for predicting product failures

In the current era of Industry 4.0, sensor data used in connection with machine learning algorithms can help manufacturing industries to reduce costs and to predict failures in advance. This paper addresses a binary classification problem found in manufacturing engineering, which focuses on how to ensure product quality delivery and at the same time to reduce production costs. The aim behind this problem is to predict the number of faulty products, which in this case is extremely low. As a result of this characteristic, the problem is reduced to an imbalanced binary classification problem. The authors contribute to imbalanced classification research in three important ways. First, the industrial application coming from the electronic manufacturing industry is presented in detail, along with its data and modelling challenges. Second, a modified cost-sensitive classification strategy based on a combination of Voronoi diagrams and genetic algorithm is applied to tackle this problem and is compared to several base classifiers. The results obtained are promising for this specific application. Third, in order to evaluate the flexibility of the strategy, and to demonstrate its wide range of applicability, 25 real-world data sets are selected from the KEEL repository with different imbalance ratios and number of features. The strategy, in this case implemented without a predefined cost, is compared with the same base classifiers as those used for the industrial problem

Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied all live births and stillbirths (≥ 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth registers in Sweden, Denmark and Norway from 1995 through 2004. Gestational age was determined by best estimate. A reference population of pregnant women was designed using the following criteria: 1) maternal age 20–35, 2) primiparity, 3) spontaneously conceived pregnancy, 4) singleton pregnancy and 5) mother born in the respective country. National preterm delivery rate, preterm delivery rate in the reference population and rate of spontaneous preterm delivery in the reference population were calculated for each country.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The total national preterm delivery rate (< 37 completed gestational weeks), increased in both Denmark (5.3% to 6.1%, p < 0.001) and Norway (6.0% to 6.4%, p = 0.006), but remained unchanged in Sweden, during 1995–2004. In Denmark, the preterm delivery rate in the reference population (5.3% to 6.3%, p < 0.001) and the spontaneous preterm delivery rate in the reference population (4.4% to 6.8%, p < 0.001) increased significantly. No similar increase was evident in Norway. In Sweden, rates in the reference population remained stable.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Reference populations can facilitate overview and thereby explanations for changing preterm delivery rates. The model also permits comparisons over time. This model may in its simplicity prove to be a valuable supplement to assessments of national preterm delivery rates for public health surveillance.</p

Latest Cretaceous climatic and environmental change in the South Atlantic region

Latest Maastrichtian climate change caused by Deccan volcanism has been invoked as a cause of mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary (~66.0 Ma). Yet late Maastrichtian climate and ecological changes are poorly documented, in particular on the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present upper Maastrichtian-lower Danian climate and biotic records from the Bajada del Jagüel (BJ) shelf site (Neuquén Basin, Argentina), employing the TEX86 paleothermometer, marine palynology (dinoflagellate cysts), and micropaleontology (foraminifera). These records are correlated to the astronomically tuned Ocean Drilling Program Site 1262 (Walvis Ridge). Collectively, we use these records to assess climatic and ecological effects of Deccan volcanism in the Southern Atlantic region. Both the TEX86-based sea surface temperature (SST) record at BJ and the bulk carbonate δ18O-based SST record of Site 1262 show a latest Maastrichtian warming of ~2.5-4°C, at 450 to 150 kyr before the K-Pg boundary, coinciding with the a large Deccan outpouring phase. Benthic foraminiferal and dinocyst assemblage changes indicate that this warming resulted in enhanced runoff and stratification of the water column, likely resulting from more humid climate conditions in the Neuquén Basin. These climate conditions could have been caused by an expanding and strengthening thermal low over the South American continent. Biotic changes in response to late Maastrichtian environmental changes are rather limited, when compared to the major turnovers observed at many K-Pg boundary sites worldwide. This suggests that environmental perturbations during the latest Maastrichtian warming event were less severe than those following the K-Pg boundary impact