Quantifying risk of overharvest when implementation is uncertain

1. Sustainable harvest management implies an ability to control harvest rates. This is challenging in systems that have limited control of resources and resource users, which is often the case in small game harvest management. The difference between management strategies and actual harvest bag size (i.e. implementation uncertainty) may be substantial, but few studies have explored this. 2. We investigated how different management strategies and ecosystem variables affected realised harvest of willow ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus L.) among nine independently managed, state-owned hunting areas in Central and South Norway during 2008–2015. First, we focused our empirical analysis around three response variables of interest: hunting bag (scaled by area), hunting effort (number of hunting days scaled by area) and hunter efficiency (shot birds per hunting day). Akaike information criteria (AIC) guided model selection among candidate GLMMs. Then, we used model-averaged parameter estimating from the statistical models in numerical simulations to explore risk of overharvest due to implementation uncertainty. 3. The most parsimonious model explaining hunting bag included total allowable catch (TAC) and willow ptarmigan density. Hunting effort was explained by number of permits sold and type of quota (daily vs. weekly quota). The most parsimonious model describing hunter efficiency only included the effect of willow ptarmigan density. 4. Our results show that managers have only partial control over harvest rates in this system, and that hunters were relatively more efficient and harvest rates higher at low densities. This effect was present for all management strategy scenarios, including when managers adjusted TAC according to population estimates from monitoring programmes. 5. Synthesis and applications. Quantifying risk of unsustainable harvest rates under different scenarios enables managers to make informed decisions, when dealing with competing objectives of harvest opportunities and sustainability. The substantial risk of high harvest rates at low densities reported here should encourage frequent use of threshold strategies. This study is one of the first approaches for quantifying implementation uncertainty in small game harvest, and shows how estimates from empirical analyses could be used to quantify risk of overharvest.publishedVersionPaid Open Acces

Implementering av internettbasert pasientjournal i en helseinstitusjon

Masteroppgave i informasjons- og kommunikasjonsteknologi 2007 – Høgskolen i Agder, GrimstadDet utvikles stadig flere internettjenester som gir nye og bedre muligheter for kommunikasjon og utveksling av informasjon. Det norske helsevesen har merket en stor etterspørsel fra pasienter og helsepersonell etter internettbaserte helseløsninger som vil forenkle hverdagen. De første internettbaserte helsetjenestene eksisterer, men disse er helt i startfasen og det er nærmest uendelige muligheter for hva slags tjenester en skal kunne tilby i fremtiden. Sårbarhetene relatert til internett og det strenge lovverket i Norge gjør slike tjenester vanskelig å gjennomføre. Løsningene som skal tilby slike tjenester over internett må derfor være solide, avanserte og i tråd med Norges lovverk. MinJournal-løsningen tilfredsstiller lovverket og har en tilfredsstillende sikkerhet både for pasienter og helsepersonell. Vi har tatt for oss de lover og bestemmelser som gjelder ved implementering av et slikt system samt beskrevet aktuell sikkerhetsteknologi. Relatert til implementeringen av MinJournal ved Evjeklinikken har vi utviklet fem skjemaer som skal tas i bruk av pasientene så fort systemet blir operativt. Skjemaene er basert på eksisterende skjemaer i papirform. Ved transformasjonen til elektronisk format har vi beholdt funksjonaliteten til eksisterende skjema og samtidig gitt de et penere og mer brukervennlig utseende. Mot slutten av oppgaven har vi gjennomgått og belyst endringene en overgang fra eksisterende løsning til internettbasert løsning vil føre med seg. Dette gjelder i hovedsak endringer i prosess- og dokumentflyt ved Evjeklinikken. Resultatene fra en implementering av MinJournal går i hovedsak ut på å bedre behandling og behandlingstilbud ved Evjeklinikken

Beredskapslederes erfaringer med samvirke mellom beredskapsaktører

Beredskapsledere opplever å måtte jobbe sammen med andre beredskapsaktører ved krisehåndtering. Ulykker og kriser kan være komplekse og ramme bredt. Beredskapsaktørene er flere og spesialiserte. Beredskapsledere må være forberedt på at de ikke kan løse krisene alene, men sammen med andre organisasjoner og beredskapsledere i et samvirke. Vi intervjuet seks beredskapsledere med bred erfaring. Vi vil belyse beredskapsledernes erfaring omkring samvirke, med fokus på optimalisering av dette. Beredskapslederne vi intervjuet bidro under krisehåndteringen ved en trålerbrann i Tromsø. De har delt sine erfaringer med samvirke fra denne hendelsen. Dette, sammen med mange års erfaring innenfor beredskapsyrker, har gitt informantene god innsikt i samvirke. Vi presenterer beredskapshjulet for å gi en forståelse for beredskapsarbeid som en syklisk prosess. Forberedelser, respons, etterarbeid og evalueringer, sammen med forebygging er beredskapsaktørenes aktivitetshjul. Vi ser hvordan samvirke blir en del av dette hjulet. Undersøkelsene forteller oss om viktigheten av forberedelser til samvirke. Samøvelser og relasjonelle aktiviteter har stor verdi. Tilrettelegging for dette har betydning for kvaliteten på krisehåndteringen. Denne tilretteleggingen handler om både innhold, metoder og forankring av øvelser. Utdannelse for beredskapsledelse varierer mye mellom ulike nødetater. Økonomi, lokaliteter, øvingsområder og tid er ressurser som begrenser. Respons og samvirke ved reelle hendelser avhenger av hvordan man klarer å oppnå felles situasjonsforståelse. Kommunikasjon og samband har stor betydning. Vi oppdaget at det kan oppstå konflikter mellom det tverretatlige samvirket og det interne samvirket i ulike beredskapsorganisasjoner. Det kom frem at etter avsluttet krisehåndtering savnes det ofte strukturerte evalueringer og muligheten for erfaringslæring. Vi ser en sammenheng mellom kvalitet på evalueringer og samøvelser. Vi har forsøkt å koble de ulike erfaringene med relevant teori i drøftingene. Avslutningsvis har vi gitt noen anbefalinger som vi håper kan ha verdi for beredskapsledere som skal samvirke

Sampling planktonic salmon lice in Norwegian fjords

Risk of mortality of wild salmon caused by salmon lice is used as an index for managing aquaculture production in Norway and is based on monitoring of lice attached to wild salmonids and modelled concentrations of lice larvae in fjords. Direct sampling of lice from Norwegian waters to determine concentrations has never been published scientifically and has been considered non-feasible for monitoring purposes. Here we tested 4 different methods for sampling planktonic salmon lice copepodids. Salmon lice were found using all 4 methods with highly variable concentrations related to volume of filtered water with the different methods and patchy and variable distribution of lice within the fjords. Comparison between modelled and sampled lice concentrations showed variability within the same range and aspects of patchiness, and that the modelled concentrations were mostly lower than observed. We conclude that planktonic salmon lice can be sampled in Norwegian fjords with standard zooplankton sampling methods. Development of monitoring programmes of planktonic lice is possible but will demand a large amount of resources if implemented along the entire coast, because extensive sampling programmes and manpower for analysing samples are required to be able to capture the high spatiotemporal variability and patchy distribution of salmon lice. This calls for further development and use of modelling as a primary tool for national monitoring and management purposes. For further investigations of the effects of infestation pressure on wild salmonids, sampling combined with numerical modelling can provide valuable information.publishedVersio

Drivers and consequences of partial migration in an alpine bird species

1. Partial migration, where a portion of the population migrates between win-ter and summer (breeding) areas and the rest remain year- round resident, is a common phenomenon across several taxonomic groups. Several hypotheses have been put forward to explain why some individuals migrate while others stay resident, as well as the fitness consequences of the different strategies. Yet, the drivers and consequences of the decision to migrate or not are poorly understood.2. We used data from radio- tagged female (n= 73) willow ptarmiganLagopus lago-pus in an alpine study area in Central Norway to test if (i) the decision to migrate was dependent on individual state variables (age and body weight), (ii) individu-als repeated migratory decisions between seasons, and (iii) the choice of migra-tory strategy was related to reproductive success.3. Partially supporting our prediction that migratory strategy depends on in-dividual state, we found that juvenile birds with small body sizes were more likely to migrate, whereas large juveniles remained resident. For adult females, we found no relationship between the decision to migrate or stay resident and body weight. We found evidence for high individual repeatability of migratory decision between seasons. Migratory strategy did not explain variation in clutch size or nest fate among individuals, suggesting no direct influence of the chosen strategy on reproductive success.4. Our results indicate that partial migration in willow ptarmigan is related to juve-nile body weight, and that migratory behavior becomes a part of the individual life history as a fixed strategy. Nesting success was not affected by migratory strategy in our study population, but future studies should assess other traits to further test potential fitness consequences. alpine wildlife, eco-evolution, Lagopus lagopus, migrationpublishedVersio

Evaluation of potential reference genes in real-time RT-PCR studies of Atlantic salmon

BACKGROUND: Salmonid fishes are among the most widely studied model fish species but reports on systematic evaluation of reference genes in qRT-PCR studies is lacking. RESULTS: The stability of six potential reference genes was examined in eight tissues of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), to determine the most suitable genes to be used in quantitative real-time RT-PCR analyses. The relative transcription levels of genes encoding 18S rRNA, S20 ribosomal protein, β-actin, glyceraldehyde-3P-dehydrogenase (GAPDH), and two paralog genes encoding elongation factor 1A (EF1A(A )and EF1A(B)) were quantified in gills, liver, head kidney, spleen, thymus, brain, muscle, and posterior intestine in six untreated adult fish, in addition to a group of individuals that went through smoltification. Based on calculations performed with the geNorm VBA applet, which determines the most stable genes from a set of tested genes in a given cDNA sample, the ranking of the examined genes in adult Atlantic salmon was EF1A(B)>EF1A(A)>β-actin>18S rRNA>S20>GAPDH. When the same calculations were done on a total of 24 individuals from four stages in the smoltification process (presmolt, smolt, smoltified seawater and desmoltified freshwater), the gene ranking was EF1A(B)>EF1A(A)>S20>β-actin>18S rRNA>GAPDH. CONCLUSION: Overall, this work suggests that the EF1A(A )and EF1A(B )genes can be useful as reference genes in qRT-PCR examination of gene expression in the Atlantic salmon

Blood pressure and mortality:using offspring blood pressure as an instrument for own blood pressure in the HUNT study

Given that observational associations may be inaccurate, we used offspring blood pressure (BP) to provide alternative estimates of the associations between own BP and mortality. Observational associations between BP and mortality, estimated as hazard ratios (HRs) from Cox regression, were compared to HRs obtained using offspring BP as an instrumental variable (IV) for own BP (N = 32,227 mother-offspring and 27,535 father-offspring pairs). Observationally, there were positive associations between own BP and mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and diabetes. Point estimates of the associations between BP and mortality from all-causes, CVD and CHD were amplified in magnitude when using offspring BP as an IV. For example, the HR for all-cause mortality per standard deviation (SD) increase in own systolic BP (SBP) obtained in conventional observational analyses increased from 1.10 (95% CI: 1.09–1.12; P < 0.0001) to 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19–1.43; P < 0.0001). Additionally, SBP was positively associated with diabetes and cancer mortality (HRs: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.12–3.35; P = 0.02 and 1.20; 95% CI: 1.02–1.42; P = 0.03, respectively) and diastolic BP (DBP) with stroke mortality (HR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.02–1.66; P = 0.03). Results support positive associations between BP and mortality from all-causes, CVD and CHD, SBP on cancer mortality and DBP on stroke mortality

Industrially relevant pyrolysis of diverse contaminated organic wastes: Gas compositions and emissions to air

publishedVersio

Procollagen type 1 N-terminal propeptide is associated with adverse outcome in acute chest pain of suspected coronary origin

BackgroundExtracellular matrix (ECM) is an integral player in the pathophysiology of a variety of cardiac diseases. Cardiac ECM is composed mainly of collagen, of which type 1 is the most abundant with procollagen type 1 N-terminal Propeptide (P1NP) as a formation marker. P1NP is associated with mortality in the general population, however, its role in myocardial infarction (MI) is still uncertain, and P1NP has not been investigated in acute chest pain. The objective of the current study was to assess the role of P1NP in undifferentiated acute chest pain of suspected coronary origin.Methods and results813 patients from the Risk in Acute Coronary Syndromes study were included. This was a single-center study investigating biomarkers in consecutively enrolled patients with acute chest pain of suspected coronary origin, with a follow-up for up to 7 years. Outcome measures were a composite endpoint of all-cause death, new MI or stroke, as well as its individual components at 1, 2, and 7 years, and cardiac death at 1 and 2 years. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, quartiles of P1NP were significantly associated with the composite endpoint at 1 year of follow-up with a hazard ratio for Q4 of 1.82 (95% CI, 1.12–2.98). There was no other significant association with outcomes at any time points.ConclusionP1NP was found to be an independent biomarker significantly associated with adverse clinical outcome at one year in patients admitted to hospital for acute chest pain of suspected coronary origin. This is the first report in the literature on the prognostic value of P1NP in this clinical setting.Clinicaltrials.ygov IdentifierNCT00521976

Obesity, Waist Circumference, Weight Change, and Risk of Incident Psoriasis: Prospective Data from the HUNT Study.

Although psoriasis has been associated with obesity, there are few prospective studies with objective measures. We prospectively examined the effect of body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, and 10-year weight change on the risk of developing psoriasis among 33,734 people in the population-based Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (i.e., HUNT), Norway. During follow-up, 369 incident psoriasis cases occurred. Relative risk (RR) of psoriasis was estimated by Cox regression. One standard deviation higher body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-hip ratio gave RRs of 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.11-1.34), 1.26 (95% CI = 1.15-1.39), and 1.18 (95% CI = 1.07-1.31), respectively. Compared with normal weight participants, obese people had an RR of 1.87 (95% CI = 1.38-2.52), whereas comparing the fourth with the first quartile of waist circumference gave an RR of 1.95 (95% CI = 1.46-2.61). One standard deviation higher weight change gave an RR of 1.20 (95% CI = 1.07-1.35), and people who increased their body weight by 10 kg or more had an RR of 1.72 (95% CI = 1.15-2.58) compared with being weight stable. In conclusion, obesity and high abdominal fat mass doubles the risk of psoriasis, and long-term weight gain substantially increases psoriasis risk. Preventing weight gain and promoting maintenance of a normal body weight could reduce incidence of psoriasis