Mixture models for distance sampling detection functions

Funding: EPSRC DTGWe present a new class of models for the detection function in distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations, based on finite mixtures of simple parametric key functions such as the half-normal. The models share many of the features of the widely-used “key function plus series adjustment” (K+A) formulation: they are flexible, produce plausible shapes with a small number of parameters, allow incorporation of covariates in addition to distance and can be fitted using maximum likelihood. One important advantage over the K+A approach is that the mixtures are automatically monotonic non-increasing and non-negative, so constrained optimization is not required to ensure distance sampling assumptions are honoured. We compare the mixture formulation to the K+A approach using simulations to evaluate its applicability in a wide set of challenging situations. We also re-analyze four previously problematic real-world case studies. We find mixtures outperform K+A methods in many cases, particularly spiked line transect data (i.e., where detectability drops rapidly at small distances) and larger sample sizes. We recommend that current standard model selection methods for distance sampling detection functions are extended to include mixture models in the candidate set.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Ohio Northern Alumnus - July, 1927

https://digitalcommons.onu.edu/alumni_mag/1001/thumbnail.jp

Platinum Complexes with a Phosphino-Oxime/Oximate Ligand

The platinum(II) complex [PtCl2(COD)] (2; COD = 1,5- cyclooctadiene) reacted with 1 and 2 equiv. of 2-(diphenylphosphanyl) benzaldehyde oxime (1) to generate [PtCl2{¿2-(P,N)-2- Ph2PC6H4CH=NOH}] (3) and [Pt{¿2-(P,N)-2-Ph2PC6H4CH=NOH}2]- [Cl]2 (4), respectively. Deprotonation of the oxime hydroxyl group of 3 with Na2CO3 led to the selective formation of the dinuclear species (¿-O)-[PtCl{¿2-(P,N)-2-Ph2PC6H4CH=NO}]2 (5), while the related methylated derivative (¿-O)-[PtMe{¿2-(P,N)-2- Ph2PC6H4CH=NO}]2 (7) could be obtained from the direct reaction of [PtMe2(COD)] (6) with the phosphino-oxime ligand 1. In the case of 4, its treatment with Na2CO3 yielded complex [Pt({¿2-(P,N)-2-Ph2PC6H4CH=NO}2H)][Cl] (8), as a result of the deprotonation of only one of the OH groups of 4. On the other hand, contrary to what was observed with 6, no deprotonation of the oxime occurred in the reaction of [PtMe3I]4 (9) with 1, from which the mononuclear PtIV derivative fac-[PtIMe3{¿2-(P,N)- 2-Ph2PC6H4CH=NOH}] (10) was isolated. The solid-state structures of compounds 3, 4, 7 and 10 were determined by X-ray crystallography. In addition, the potential of all the synthesized complexes as catalysts for the dehydrogenative coupling of hydrosilanes with alcohols is also briefly discussed.Peer Reviewe

Emerging Themes from the ESA Symposium Entitled “Pollinator Nutrition: Lessons from Bees at Individual to Landscape Levels”

Pollinator populations are declining (Biesmeijer et al., 2006; Brodschneider et al., 2018; Cameron et al., 2011; Goulson, Lye, & Darvill, 2008; Kulhanek et al., 2017; National Research Council, 2007; Oldroyd, 2007), and both anecdotal and experimental evidence suggest that limited access to high quality forage might play a role (Carvell, Meek, Pywell, Goulson, & Nowakowski, 2007; Deepa et al., 2017; Goulson, Nicholls, Botias, & Rotheray, 2015; Potts et al., 2003, 2010; Vanbergen & The Insect Pollinators Initiative, 2013; Vaudo, Tooker, Grozinger, & Patch, 2015; Woodard, 2017). Multiple researchers are earnestly addressing this topic in a diverse array of insect-pollinator systems. As research continues to be published, increased communication among scientists studying the topic of nutrition is essential for improving pollinator health

Lignin biomarkers as tracers of mercury sources in lakes water column

This study presents the role of specific terrigenous organic compounds as important vectors of mercury (Hg) transported from watersheds to lakes of the Canadian boreal forest. In order to differentiate the autochthonous from the allochthonous organic matter (OM), lignin derived biomarker signatures [Lambda, S/V, C/V, P/(V ? S), 3,5-Bd/V and (Ad/Al)v] were used. Since lignin is exclusively produced by terrigenous plants, this approach can give a non equivocal picture of the watershed inputs to the lakes. Moreover, it allows a characterization of the source of OM and its state of degradation. The water column of six lakes from the Canadian Shield was sampled monthly between June and September 2005. Lake total dissolved Hg concentrations and Lambda were positively correlated, meaning that Hg and ligneous inputs are linked (dissolved OM r2 = 0.62, p\0.0001; particulate OM r2 = 0.76, p\0.0001). Ratios of P/(V ? S) and 3,5-Bd/V from both dissolved OM and particulate OM of the water column suggest an inverse relationship between the progressive state of pedogenesis and maturation of the OM in soil before entering the lake, and the Hg concentrations in the water column. No relation was found between Hg levels in the lakes and the watershed flora composition—angiosperm versus gymnosperm or woody versus non-woody compounds. This study has significant implications for watershed management of ecosystems since limiting fresh terrestrial OM inputs should reduce Hg inputs to the aquatic systems. This is particularly the case for largescale land-use impacts, such as deforestation, agriculture and urbanization, associated to large quantities of soil OM being transferred to aquatic systems

Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss

The Last Interglacial (LIG), a warmer period 130-116 ka before present, is a potential analog for future climate change. Stronger LIG summertime insolation at high northern latitudes drove Arctic land summer temperatures 4-5 °C higher than the preindustrial era. Climate model simulations have previously failed to capture these elevated temperatures, possibly because they were unable to correctly capture LIG sea-ice changes. Here, we show the latest version of the fully-coupled UK Hadley Center climate model (HadGEM3) simulates a more accurate Arctic LIG climate, including elevated temperatures. Improved model physics, including a sophisticated sea-ice melt-pond scheme, result in a complete simulated loss of Arctic sea ice in summer during the LIG, which has yet to be simulated in past generations of models. This ice-free Arctic yields a compelling solution to the longstanding puzzle of what drove LIG Arctic warmth and supports a fast retreat of future Arctic summer sea ice

Effects of memory biases on variability of temperature reconstruction

L.L. was supported by a studentship from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) E3 Doctoral training partnership [grant number NE/L002558/1]. A.S. and G.H. were supported by NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy [NE/P006752/1]. G.H. was supported by NCAS [R8/H12/83/029]. G.H. was further funded by the Wolfson Foundation and the Royal Society as a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award [WM130060] holder. We acknowledge the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for producing and making publicly available their model output. We acknowledge the Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring Network Development (N-TREND) for providing publicly available data.Quantifying past climate variation and attributing its causes improves our understanding of the natural variability of the climate system. Tree-ring based proxies have provided skilfull and highly resolved reconstructions of temperature and hydroclimate of the last Millennium. However, like all proxies, they are subject to uncertainties, arising from varying data quality, coverage and reconstruction methodology. Previous studies have suggested that biological-based memory processes could cause spectral biases in climate reconstructions. This study determines the effects of such biases on reconstructed temperature variability and the resultant implications for detection and attribution studies. We find that introducing persistent memory, reflecting the spectral properties of tree-ring data, can change the variability of pseudo proxy reconstructions compared to the surrogate climate and resolve model-proxy-discrepancies. This is especially the case for proxies based on ring-width data. Such memory inflates the difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, and suppresses and extends the cooling in response to volcanic eruptions. When accounting for memory effects climate model data can reproduce long-term cooling after volcanic eruptions as seen in proxy reconstructions. Results of detection and attribution studies show that signals in reconstructions as well as residual unforced variability are consistent with those in climate models when the model fingerprints reflect autoregressive memory as found in tree-rings.Publisher PDFPublisher PDFPeer reviewe