The new Kr-86 excess ice core proxy for synoptic activity: West Antarctic storminess possibly linked to Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) movement through the last deglaciation

Here we present a newly developed ice core gas-phase proxy that directly samples a component of the large-scale atmospheric circulation: synoptic-scale pressure variability. Surface pressure changes weakly disrupt gravitational isotopic settling in the firn layer, which is recorded in krypton-86 excess (86Krxs). The 86Krxs may therefore reflect the time-averaged synoptic pressure variability over several years (site “storminess”), but it likely cannot record individual synoptic events as ice core gas samples typically average over several years. We validate 86Krxs using late Holocene ice samples from 11 Antarctic ice cores and 1 Greenland ice core that collectively represent a wide range of surface pressure variability in the modern climate. We find a strong spatial correlation (, p<0.01) between site average 86Krxs and time-averaged synoptic variability from reanalysis data. The main uncertainties in the analysis are the corrections for gas loss and thermal fractionation and the relatively large scatter in the data. Limited scientific understanding of the firn physics and potential biases of 86Krxs require caution in interpreting this proxy at present. We show that Antarctic 86Krxs appears to be linked to the position of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven subpolar jet (SPJ), with a southern position enhancing pressure variability. We present a 86Krxs record covering the last 24 kyr from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core. Based on the empirical spatial correlation of synoptic activity and 86Krxs at various Antarctic sites, we interpret this record to show that West Antarctic synoptic activity is slightly below modern levels during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), increases during the Heinrich Stadial 1 and Younger Dryas North Atlantic cold periods, weakens abruptly at the Holocene onset, remains low during the early and mid-Holocene, and gradually increases to its modern value. The WAIS Divide 86Krxs record resembles records of monsoon intensity thought to reflect changes in the meridional position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on orbital and millennial timescales such that West Antarctic storminess is weaker when the ITCZ is displaced northward and stronger when it is displaced southward. We interpret variations in synoptic activity as reflecting movement of the South Pacific SPJ in parallel to the ITCZ migrations, which is the expected zonal mean response of the eddy-driven jet in models and proxy data. Past changes to Pacific climate and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may amplify the signal of the SPJ migration. Our interpretation is broadly consistent with opal flux records from the Pacific Antarctic zone thought to reflect wind-driven upwelling. We emphasize that 86Krxs is a new proxy, and more work is called for to confirm, replicate, and better understand these results; until such time, our conclusions regarding past atmospheric dynamics remain speculative. Current scientific understanding of firn air transport and trapping is insufficient to explain all the observed variations in 86Krxs. A list of suggested future studies is provided

J-PLUS: The javalambre photometric local universe survey

ABSTRACT: TheJavalambrePhotometric Local UniverseSurvey (J-PLUS )isanongoing 12-band photometricopticalsurvey, observingthousands of squaredegrees of theNorthernHemispherefromthededicated JAST/T80 telescope at the Observatorio Astrofísico de Javalambre (OAJ). The T80Cam is a camera with a field of view of 2 deg2 mountedon a telescopewith a diameter of 83 cm, and isequippedwith a uniquesystem of filtersspanningtheentireopticalrange (3500–10 000 Å). Thisfiltersystemis a combination of broad-, medium-, and narrow-band filters, optimallydesigned to extracttherest-framespectralfeatures (the 3700–4000 Å Balmer break region, Hδ, Ca H+K, the G band, and the Mg b and Ca triplets) that are key to characterizingstellartypes and delivering a low-resolutionphotospectrumforeach pixel of theobservedsky. With a typicaldepth of AB ∼21.25 mag per band, thisfilter set thusallowsforanunbiased and accuratecharacterization of thestellarpopulation in our Galaxy, itprovidesanunprecedented 2D photospectralinformationforall resolved galaxies in the local Universe, as well as accuratephoto-z estimates (at the δ z/(1 + z)∼0.005–0.03 precisionlevel) formoderatelybright (up to r ∼ 20 mag) extragalacticsources. Whilesomenarrow-band filters are designedforthestudy of particular emissionfeatures ([O II]/λ3727, Hα/λ6563) up to z < 0.017, theyalsoprovidewell-definedwindowsfortheanalysis of otheremissionlines at higherredshifts. As a result, J-PLUS has thepotential to contribute to a widerange of fields in Astrophysics, both in thenearbyUniverse (MilkyWaystructure, globular clusters, 2D IFU-likestudies, stellarpopulations of nearby and moderate-redshiftgalaxies, clusters of galaxies) and at highredshifts (emission-line galaxies at z ≈ 0.77, 2.2, and 4.4, quasi-stellarobjects, etc.). Withthispaper, wereleasethefirst∼1000 deg2 of J-PLUS data, containingabout 4.3 millionstars and 3.0 milliongalaxies at r <  21mag. With a goal of 8500 deg2 forthe total J-PLUS footprint, thesenumbers are expected to rise to about 35 millionstars and 24 milliongalaxiesbytheend of thesurvey.Funding for the J-PLUS Project has been provided by the Governments of Spain and Aragón through the Fondo de Inversiones de Teruel, the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO; under grants AYA2017-86274-P, AYA2016-77846-P, AYA2016-77237-C3-1-P, AYA2015-66211-C2-1-P, AYA2015-66211-C2-2, AYA2012-30789, AGAUR grant SGR-661/2017, and ICTS-2009-14), and European FEDER funding (FCDD10-4E-867, FCDD13-4E-2685

Data descriptor: a global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high-and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python. (TABLE) Since the pioneering work of D'Arrigo and Jacoby1-3, as well as Mann et al. 4,5, temperature reconstructions of the Common Era have become a key component of climate assessments6-9. Such reconstructions depend strongly on the composition of the underlying network of climate proxies10, and it is therefore critical for the climate community to have access to a community-vetted, quality-controlled database of temperature-sensitive records stored in a self-describing format. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) 2k consortium, a self-organized, international group of experts, recently assembled such a database, and used it to reconstruct surface temperature over continental-scale regions11 (hereafter, ` PAGES2k-2013'). This data descriptor presents version 2.0.0 of the PAGES2k proxy temperature database (Data Citation 1). It augments the PAGES2k-2013 collection of terrestrial records with marine records assembled by the Ocean2k working group at centennial12 and annual13 time scales. In addition to these previously published data compilations, this version includes substantially more records, extensive new metadata, and validation. Furthermore, the selection criteria for records included in this version are applied more uniformly and transparently across regions, resulting in a more cohesive data product. This data descriptor describes the contents of the database, the criteria for inclusion, and quantifies the relation of each record with instrumental temperature. In addition, the paleotemperature time series are summarized as composites to highlight the most salient decadal-to centennial-scale behaviour of the dataset and check mutual consistency between paleoclimate archives. We provide extensive Matlab code to probe the database-processing, filtering and aggregating it in various ways to investigate temperature variability over the Common Era. The unique approach to data stewardship and code-sharing employed here is designed to enable an unprecedented scale of investigation of the temperature history of the Common Era, by the scientific community and citizen-scientists alike

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3�6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55 of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017�and more than 80 in some low- and middle-income regions�was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing�and in some countries reversal�of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. © 2019, The Author(s)

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol�which is a marker of cardiovascular risk�changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95 credible interval 3.7 million�4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

On the limits of climate reconstruction from water stable isotopes in polar ice cores

International audienceIce core water stable isotopes are a favored proxy to reconstruct past climatic variations. Yet, their interpretation requires calibration from other proxy records and is affected by various processes which alter the signal after it has been imprinted

Predictions for Herschel from Λ-cold dark matter : unveiling the cosmic star formation history

We use a model for the evolution of galaxies in the far-infrared (far-IR) based on the Λ-cold dark matter cosmology to make detailed predictions for the upcoming cosmological surveys with the Herschel Space Observatory. We use the combined GALFORM semi-analytical galaxy formation model and GRASIL spectrophotometric code to compute galaxy spectral energy distribution (SEDs) including the reprocessing of radiation by dust. The model, which is the same as that in Baugh et al., assumes two different initial mass functions (IMFs): a normal solar neighbourhood IMF for quiescent star formation in discs, and a very top-heavy IMF in starbursts triggered by galaxy mergers. We have shown previously that the top-heavy IMF appears necessary to explain the number counts and redshifts of faint submillimetre galaxies. In this paper, we present predictions for galaxy luminosity functions, number counts and redshift distributions in the Herschel imaging bands. We find that source confusion will be a serious problem in the deepest planned surveys. We also show predictions for physical properties such as star formation rates and stellar, gas and halo masses, together with fluxes at other wavelengths (from the far-ultraviolet to the radio) relevant for multi-wavelength follow-up observations. We investigate what fraction of the total IR emission from dust and of the high-mass star formation over the history of the Universe should be resolved by planned surveys with Herschel, and find a fraction ∼30–50 per cent, depending on confusion. Finally, we show that galaxies in Herschel surveys should be significantly clustered

Age and geochemistry of tephra layers from Ischia, Italy: constraints from proximal-distal correlations with Lago Grande di Monticchio

Unraveling the eruptive history of the Island of Ischia (southern Italy) is problematic due to its burial, caldera collapse, resurgent uplift and erosion. Here, we present new major and trace element glass data for 39–75 ka proximal tephra deposits, including those of the caldera-forming Monte Epomeo Green Tuff (MEGT) eruption. Correlations with the distal tephra archive preserved at Lago Grande di Monticchio (LGdM) are used to constrain the timing of as yet undated eruptive events. Out of 13 LGdM tephras analysed from the 39–104 ka time window, glass geochemical data show that all are compositionally consistent with the explosive volcanic eruptions of Ischia, whilst 5 of them can be correlated with specific proximal deposits. Pre-MEGT pyroclastic sequences comprise three compositional groups, these groups occur repeatedly in sucessive eruptions. Proximal-distal correlations indicate that the Porticello eruption occurred at 59 ± 2 ka and the Tisichiello eruption probably occurred at 76 ± 3 ka. The MEGT eruption is correlated with LGdM TM-19, which has been directly dated at 55 ± 2 ka. Post-MEGT tephras form compositional groups that overlap with the pre-MEGT but are displaced to lower FeO and TiO2 and lower incompatible element contents. Proximal-distal correlations indicate that the Schiappone and Pietre Rosse eruptions occurred at 50.6 ± 2.0 ka and 45 ± 6 ka, respectively. Tephra from the MEGT eruption span a wide compositional range, broadly overlapping the three pre-MEGT compositional groups but are displaced to higher Nd and Y and contain an additional less evolved glass population. Glass geochemistry is used to recognise and confirm distal equivalents of the MEGT at LGdM (TM-19) and in the Ionian (Y-7), Adriatic (PRAD 1870) and Tyrrhenian (C-18, MD 28) seas. Distal occurences of MEGT tephra define a dispersal axis to the south-southeast and are found as far as 540 km from Ischia, making the MEGT one of the most widely dispersed late Quaternary pyroclastic deposit erupted in the Campanian region. We estimate a volume of approximately 40 km3 for the fallout portion of the MEGT pyroclastic sequence on the basis of proximal and distal deposit thicknesses