Lordship and Environmental Change in Central Highland Scotland c.1300–c.1400

Whilst there has been an increasing recognition of the infl uence of natural agency on human society in Scotland in the medieval period, conventional historiography has generally presented the wholesale reconfi guration of structures of secular lordship in the Scottish central Highlands in the 14th century as an essentially political consequence of the sociopolitical dislocation associated with the Anglo-Scottish wars that occurred after 1296. The establishment within the region of militarised Gaelic kindreds from the West Highlands and Hebrides of Scotland has come to be regarded as either a symptom of efforts by externally based regional lords to bolster their authority, or an opportunistic territorial aggrandisement by newly dominant neighbouring lords. Feuding and predatory raiding associated with these kindreds is recognised as competition for resources but generally in a context of projection of superior lordship over weaker neighbours. Evidence for long-term changes in climate extrapolated from North Atlantic proxy data, however, suggests that the cattle-based economy of Atlantic Scotland was experiencing protracted environmentally induced stress in the period c.1300–c.1350. Using this evidence, we discuss whether exchange systems operating within traditional lordship structures could offset localised and short-term pressures on the livestock-based regime, but could not be sustained long-term on the reduced fodder and contracting herd sizes caused by climatic deterioration. Territorial expansion and development of a predatory culture, it is argued, were responses to an environment-triggered economic crisis

Can the polarization of the strange quarks in the proton be positive ?

Recently, the HERMES Collaboration at DESY, using a leading order QCD analysis of their data on semi-inclusive deep inelastic production of charged hadrons, reported a marginally positive polarization for the strange quarks in the proton. We argue that a non-negative polarization is almost impossible.Comment: 6 pages, latex, minor changes in the discussion after Eq. (9

Modelling marine emissions and atmospheric distributions of halocarbons and dimethyl sulfide: the influence of prescribed water concentration vs. prescribed emissions

Marine-produced short-lived trace gases such as dibromomethane (CH2Br2), bromoform (CHBr3), methyliodide (CH3I) and dimethyl sulfide (DMS) significantly impact tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. Describing their marine emissions in atmospheric chemistry models as accurately as possible is necessary to quantify their impact on ozone depletion and Earth's radiative budget. So far, marine emissions of trace gases have mainly been prescribed from emission climatologies, thus lacking the interaction between the actual state of the atmosphere and the ocean. Here we present simulations with the chemistry climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) with online calculation of emissions based on surface water concentrations, in contrast to directly prescribed emissions. Considering the actual state of the model atmosphere results in a concentration gradient consistent with model real-time conditions at the ocean surface and in the atmosphere, which determine the direction and magnitude of the computed flux. This method has a number of conceptual and practical benefits, as the modelled emission can respond consistently to changes in sea surface temperature, surface wind speed, sea ice cover and especially atmospheric mixing ratio. This online calculation could enhance, dampen or even invert the fluxes (i.e. deposition instead of emissions) of very short-lived substances (VSLS). We show that differences between prescribing emissions and prescribing concentrations (−28 % for CH2Br2 to +11 % for CHBr3) result mainly from consideration of the actual, time-varying state of the atmosphere. The absolute magnitude of the differences depends mainly on the surface ocean saturation of each particular gas. Comparison to observations from aircraft, ships and ground stations reveals that computing the air–sea flux interactively leads in most of the cases to more accurate atmospheric mixing ratios in the model compared to the computation from prescribed emissions. Calculating emissions online also enables effective testing of different air–sea transfer velocity (k) parameterizations, which was performed here for eight different parameterizations. The testing of these different k values is of special interest for DMS, as recently published parameterizations derived by direct flux measurements using eddy covariance measurements suggest decreasing k values at high wind speeds or a linear relationship with wind speed. Implementing these parameterizations reduces discrepancies in modelled DMS atmospheric mixing ratios and observations by a factor of 1.5 compared to parameterizations with a quadratic or cubic relationship to wind spee

Non-invasive methods for the estimation of mPAP in COPD using Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Purpose Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is associated with a poor outcome in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and is diagnosed invasively. We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of non-invasive cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) models. Methods Patients with COPD and suspected PH, who underwent CMR and right heart catheter (RHC) were identified. Three candidate models were assessed: 1, CMR-RV model, based on right ventricular (RV) mass and interventricular septal angle; 2, CMR PA/RV includes RV mass, septal angle and pulmonary artery (PA) measurements; 3, the Alpha index, based on RV ejection fraction and PA size. Results Of 102 COPD patients, 87 had PH. The CMR-PA/RV model had the strongest diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity 92%, specificity 80%, positive predictive value 96% and negative predictive value 63%, AUC 0.93, p<0.0001). Splitting RHCmPAP, CMR-RV and CMR-PA/RV models by 35mmHg gave a significant difference in survival, with log-rank chi-squared 5.03, 5.47 and 7.10. RV mass and PA relative area change were the independent predictors of mortality at multivariate Cox regression (p=0.002 and 0.030). Conclusion CMR provides diagnostic and prognostic information in PH-COPD. The CMR-PA/RV model is useful for diagnosis, the RV mass index and PA relative area change are useful to assess prognosis. Key Points • Pulmonary hypertension is a marker of poor outcome in COPD. • MRI can predict invasively measured mean pulmonary artery pressure. • Cardiac MRI allows for estimation of survival in COPD. • Cardiac MRI may be useful for follow up or future trials. • MRI is potentially useful to assess pulmonary hypertension in patients with COPD

Alkyl nitrates in outflow from North America over the North Atlantic during Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors 2004

This paper is based on alkyl nitrate measurements made over the North Atlantic as part of the International Consortium for Research on Atmospheric Transport and Transformation (ICARTT). The focus is on the analysis of air samples collected on the UK BAe-146 aircraft during the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) project, but air samples collected on board the NASA DC-8 and NOAA WP-3D aircraft as part of a Lagrangian experiment are also used. The ratios between the alkyl nitrates and their parent hydrocarbons are compared with those expected from chemical theory. Further, a box model is run to investigate the temporal evolution of the alkyl nitrates in three Lagrangian case studies and compared to observations. The air samples collected during ITOP do not appear to be strongly influenced by oceanic sources, but rather are influenced by emissions from the N.E. United States and from Alaskan fires. There also appears to be a widespread common source of ethyl nitrate and 1-propyl nitrate other than from their parent hydrocarbons. The general agreement between the alkyl nitrate data and photochemical theory suggests that during the first few days of transport from the source region, photochemical production of alkyl nitrates, and thus ozone, had taken place. The observations in the more photochemically processed air masses are consistent with the alkyl nitrate production reactions no longer dominating the peroxy radical self/cross reactions. Further, the results also suggest that the rates of photochemical processing in the Alaskan smoke plumes were small

Invasive Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass) is an ecosystem transformer of nitrogen relations in Australian savanna

The African grass Andropogon gayanus Kunth. is invading Australian savannas, altering their ecological and biogeochemical function. To assess impacts on nitrogen (N) cycling, we quantified litter decomposition and N dynamics of grass litter in native grass and A. gayanus invaded savanna using destructive in situ grass litter harvests and litterbag incubations (soil surface and aerial position). Only 30% of the A. gayanus in situ litter decomposed, compared to 61% of the native grass litter, due to the former being largely comprised of highly resistant A. gayanus stem. In contrast to the stem, A. gayanus leaf decomposition was approximately 3- and 2-times higher than the dominant native grass, Alloteropsis semilata at the surface and aerial position, respectively. Lower initial lignin concentrations, and higher consumption by termites, accounted for the greater surface decomposition rate of A. gayanus. N flux estimates suggest the N release of A. gayanus litter is insufficient to compensate for increased N uptake and N loss via fire in invaded plots. Annually burnt invaded savanna may lose up to 8.2% of the upper soil N pool over a decade. Without additional inputs via biological N fixation, A. gayanus invasion is likely to diminish the N capital of Australia's frequently burnt savannas

Tropospheric observations of CFC-114 and CFC-114a with a focus on long-term trends and emissions

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are ozone-depleting substances as well as strong greenhouse gases, and the control of their production and use under the Montreal Protocol has had demonstrable benefits to both mitigation of increasing surface UV radiation and climate forcing. A global ban on consumption came into force in 2010, but there is evidence of continuing emissions of certain CFCs from a range of sources. One compound has received little attention in the literature, namely CFC-114 (C2Cl2F4). Of particular interest here is the differentiation between CFC-114 (CClF2CClF2) and its asymmetric isomeric form CFC-114a (CF3CCl2F) as atmospheric long-term measurements in the peer-reviewed literature to date have been assumed to represent the sum of both isomers with a time-invariant isomeric speciation. Here we report the first long-term measurements of the two isomeric forms separately, and find that they have different origins and trends in the atmosphere. Air samples collected at Cape Grim (41° S), Australia, during atmospheric background conditions since 1978, combined with samples collected from deep polar snow (firn) enable us to obtain a near-complete record of both gases since their initial production and release in the 1940s. Both isomers were present in the unpolluted atmosphere in comparably small amounts before 1960. The mixing ratio of CFC-114 doubled from 7.9 to 14.8 parts per trillion (ppt) between the start of the Cape Grim record in 1978 and the end of our record in 2014, while over the same time CFC-114a trebled from 0.35 to 1.03 ppt. Mixing ratios of both isomers are slowly decreasing by the end of this period. This is consistent with measurements of recent aircraft-based samples showing no significant interhemispheric mixing ratio gradient

Quantifying the impact of BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellites (BORTAS) experiment: design, execution and science overview

We describe the design and execution of the BORTAS (Quantifying the impact of BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellites) experiment, which has the overarching objective of understanding the chemical aging of air masses that contain the emission products from seasonal boreal wildfires and how these air masses subsequently impact downwind atmospheric composition. The central focus of the experiment was a two-week deployment of the UK BAe-146-301 Atmospheric Research Aircraft (ARA) over eastern Canada, based out of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Atmospheric ground-based and sonde measurements over Canada and the Azores associated with the planned July 2010 deployment of the ARA, which was postponed by 12 months due to UK-based flights related to the dispersal of material emitted by the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, went ahead and constituted phase A of the experiment. Phase B of BORTAS in July 2011 involved the same atmospheric measurements, but included the ARA, special satellite observations and a more comprehensive ground-based measurement suite. The high-frequency aircraft data provided a comprehensive chemical snapshot of pyrogenic plumes from wildfires, corresponding to photochemical (and physical) ages ranging from 45 sr 10 days, largely by virtue of widespread fires over Northwestern Ontario. Airborne measurements reported a large number of emitted gases including semi-volatile species, some of which have not been been previously reported in pyrogenic plumes, with the corresponding emission ratios agreeing with previous work for common gases. Analysis of the NOy data shows evidence of net ozone production in pyrogenic plumes, controlled by aerosol abundance, which increases as a function of photochemical age. The coordinated ground-based and sonde data provided detailed but spatially limited information that put the aircraft data into context of the longer burning season in the boundary layer. Ground-based measurements of particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) over Halifax show that forest fires can on an episodic basis represent a substantial contribution to total surface PM2.5

HOx observations over West Africa during AMMA: impact of isoprene and NOx

Aircraft OH and HO2 measurements made over West Africa during the AMMA field campaign in summer 2006 have been investigated using a box model constrained to observations of long-lived species and physical parameters. "Good" agreement was found for HO2 (modelled to observed gradient of 1.23 ± 0.11). However, the model significantly overpredicts OH concentrations. The reasons for this are not clear, but may reflect instrumental instabilities affecting the OH measurements. Within the model, HOx concentrations in West Africa are controlled by relatively simple photochemistry, with production dominated by ozone photolysis and reaction of O(1D) with water vapour, and loss processes dominated by HO2 + HO2 and HO2 + RO2. Isoprene chemistry was found to influence forested regions. In contrast to several recent field studies in very low NOx and high isoprene environments, we do not observe any dependence of model success for HO2 on isoprene and attribute this to efficient recycling of HOx through RO2 + NO reactions under the moderate NOx concentrations (5–300 ppt NO in the boundary layer, median 76 ppt) encountered during AMMA. This suggests that some of the problems with understanding the impact of isoprene on atmospheric composition may be limited to the extreme low range of NOx concentrations