The Logic of Probability: A Trip through Uncertainty

In real life we have to deal with uncertainty, imprecision and vagueness. Many ideas were introduced and studied in detail to manage with these problems. Now we briefly expose the main formal concepts which describe non-ideal situations, i.e. Probability, Statistics and Fuzzy Logic. Probability has recent origins with respect to other branches of mathematics which have deep roots in the past, like geometry or algebra.We may say all this started with Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré (1607–1684), who asked Blaise Pascal (1623–1662) about gambling with dice. The correspondence between Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal, which began in 1654, initially on these questions, led to the introduction of basic concepts, i.e. probability and expectation. Only in 1657, Christian Huygens in "De Ratiociniis in ludo aleae" proposed a first systematic study of the new branch of mathematics. However, the need of an axiomatic construction of the theory of probability arose to analyze more general and complex situations than gambling. A strong formalization was supplied by the monograph "Foundations of the theory of probability" (1933) by Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov.Statistics represent the most popular application of probability theory, providing research tools in several areas, including physical and natural sciences, technology, psychology, economics and medicine. Statistics are the bridge that connects experimental data to the mathematical theory behind itself.Fuzzy logic, sometime confused with probability, wants to express and formalize all the sentences which are not true or false at all; the philosophical idea is that "everything is a matter of degree" (Zadeh). La logica della probabilità: un viaggio attraverso l’incertezzaNella vita reale ci si trova di fronte a molte situazioni caratterizzate da incertezza, imprecisione, vaghezza. Sono state introdotte diverse modellizzazioni per il trattamento di tali concetti e problemi. Ci proponiamo di esporre sinteticamente alcuni lineamenti fondamentali di Probabilità, Statistica e Fuzzy Logic.La probabilità ha origini recenti rispetto alle altre branche della matematica che hanno profonde radici nel passato, come la geometria o l’algebra.Possiamo dire che un passaggio iniziale importante si è avuto con Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré (1607-1684), che pose a Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) una questione riguardante il gioco dei dadi. La corrispondenza tra Pierre de Fermat e Blaise Pascal, che ha avuto inizio nel 1654, su questioni simili, ha portato all'introduzione di concetti di base, come probabilità e aspettativa. Successivamente Christian Huygens, in "De ludo Ratiociniis in aleae", ha proposto un primo studio sistematico della nuova branca della matematica. Tuttavia, la necessità di una costruzione assiomatica della teoria della probabilità sorse per l’esigenza di analizzare situazioni più generali e complesse rispetto al gioco d'azzardo. Una forte formalizzazione è stata fornita dalla monografia "Fondamenti della teoria della probabilità" (1933) di Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov.La statistica rappresenta l'applicazione più popolare della teoria della probabilità, fornendo strumenti di ricerca in diversi settori, tra cui le scienze fisiche e naturali, la tecnologia, la psicologia, l'economia e la medicina. In un certo senso essa rappresenta il ponte che collega i dati sperimentali con la teoria matematica.La Logica Fuzzy, da non confondere con la probabilità, si occupa del trattamento formale delle proposizioni di cui non si può affermare senza ambiguità che siano vere o false; l'idea filosofica è che "tutto è una questione di gradualità" (Zadeh).Parole Chiave: Incertezza, Probabilità, Statistica, Fuzz

Comparing inconsistency of pairwise comparison matrices depending on entries

Pairwise comparisons have been a long-standing technique for comparing alternatives/criteria and their role has been pivotal in the development of modern decision-making methods. Since several types of pairwise comparison matrices (e.g., multiplicative, additive, fuzzy) are proposed in literature, in this paper, we investigate, for which type of matrix, decision-makers are more coherent when they express their subjective preferences. By performing an experiment, we found that the additive approach provides the worst level of coherence

The effect of humidity on the CO2/N2 separation performance of copolymers based on hard polyimide segments and soft polyether chains: Experimental and modeling

In this work, we studied two copolymers formed by segments of a rubbery polyether (PPO or PEO) and of a glassy polyimide (BPDA-ODA or BKDA-ODA) suitable for gas separation and CO2 capture. Firstly, we assessed the absorption of water vapor in the materials, as a function of relative humidity (R.H.), finding that the humidity uptake of the copolymers lies between that of the corresponding pure homopolymers values. Furthermore, we studied the effect of humidity on CO2 and N2 permeability, as well as on CO2/N2 selectivity, up to R.H. of 75%. The permeability decreases with increasing humidity, while the ideal selectivity remains approximately constant in the entire range of water activity investigated. The humidity-induced decrease of permeability in the copolymers is much smaller than the one observed in polyimides such as Matrimid® confirming the positive effect of the polyether phase on the membrane performance.Finally, we modeled the humidity-induced decrease of gas solubility, diffusivity and, consequently, permeability, using a suitable approach that considers the free volume theory for diffusion and LF model for solubility. Such model allows estimating the extent of competition that the gases undergo with water during sorption in the membranes, as a function of the relative humidity, as well as the expected reduction of free volume by means of water molecules occupation and consequent reduction of diffusivity. Keywords: CO2 capture, Humid gas permeation, Transport properties in polymeric membranes, Water vapor sorption, Modelin

Cranial structure and condylar asymmetry of patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a risky growth pattern

The aim of the study was to evaluate the cephalometric differences and condylar asymmetry between patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and normal control group. Sixty-two JIA patients with a latero-lateral cephalogram and orthopantomography, seeking for orthodontic therapy, and 62 normal matched subjects were comprised in the study. Cephalometric analysis was used for the evaluation of facial morphology while the method of Habets et al. (J Oral Rehabil 15(5): 465-471, 1988) was used to compare the condyles in orthopantomography. The significance of between-group differences was assessed using the Mann-Whitney test, as appropriate. The results showed a prevalence of the upper maxilla with hypomandibulia (class II), hyperdivergency with short vertical ramus posterior and posterior rotation of the mandible in JIA children (SNB, ANB, NSL/ML, Fh/ML, NL/ML, ArGo, ML P < 0.0001, ML/Oc P < 0.004, ArGo/GoGn P = 0.02, no difference for SNA). The condyles of the JIA group resulted highly asymmetric (P < 0.0001). The growth pattern of JIA patients resulted clearly different from normal subjects. This serious impairment of the cranial growth may be considered as an indicator of the need for early and continuous orthognatodonthic therapy during the entire period of development for all JIA patients, independently from temporomandibular joint signs or symptoms. To this end, it is important that rheumatologists and orthognathodontists set up a multidisciplinary treatment planned to control the side effects of a deranged growing pattern, to strictly avoid any orthodontic therapies that may worsen function and growth, and to promote treatments improving the physiology and biology of the cranial development

A Modified Post-Transplant Cyclophosphamide Regimen, for Unmanipulated Haploidentical Marrow Transplantation, in Acute Myeloid Leukemia: A Multicenter Study

Abstract We report a modified post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PT-CY) regimen, for unmanipulated haploidentical marrow transplants, in 150 patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). All patients received a myeloablative regimen, cyclosporine A (CsA) on day 0, mycophenolate on day +1, and PT-CY 50 mg/kg on days +3 and +5. The median age was 51 (range, 17–74) years, 51 (34%) patients had active disease at transplant, and the median follow-up of surviving patients 903 (range, 150-1955) days. The cumulative incidence (CI) of engraftment, acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) grade II to IV, and moderate/severe chronic GVHD was 92%, 17%, and 15%, respectively. The 4-year CI of transplant-related mortality (TRM) and relapse was 20% and 24%, respectively. Four-year survival for remission patients was 72% (74% versus 67% fo

Bithiazole Inhibitors of Phosphatidylinositol 4-Kinase (PI4KIIIβ) as Broad-Spectrum Antivirals Blocking the Replication of SARS-CoV-2, Zika Virus, and Human Rhinoviruses

Over half a century since the description of the first antiviral drug, “old” re-emerging viruses and “new” emerging viruses still represent a serious threat to global health. Their high mutation rate and rapid selection of resistance toward common antiviral drugs, together with the increasing number of co-infections, make the war against viruses quite challenging. Herein we report a host-targeted approach, based on the inhibition of the lipid kinase PI4KIIIβ, as a promising strategy for inhibiting the replication of multiple viruses hijacking this protein. We show that bithiazole inhibitors of PI4KIIIβ block the replication of human rhinoviruses (hRV), Zika virus (ZIKV) and SARS-CoV-2 at low micromolar and sub-micromolar concentrations. However, while the anti-hRV/ZIKV activity can be directly linked to PI4KIIIβ inhibition, the role of PI4KIIIβ in SARS-CoV-2 entry/replication is debated

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Children and Adolescents with Neuropsychiatric Disorders: Emotional/Behavioral Symptoms and Parental Stress

The objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the emotional and behavioral symptoms in minors with neuropsychiatric disorders and on parental stress through a standardized neuropsychological assessment, comparing the data collected before the pandemic with those collected during the lock-down. Another goal of our study was to analyze the relationship between parental stress and behavioral/emotional symptoms in children. Our study was conducted on 383 families of patients who had already been referred at the Child Neuropsychiatry Unit of the University Hospital of Salerno for different neuropsychiatric conditions. All the parents completed two neuropsychological standardized questionnaires for the assessment of parental stress (PSI—Parenting Stress Index-Short Form) and the emotional/behavioral problems of their children (Child Behaviour CheckList). The data collected during the pandemic were compared with those collected from questionnaires administered during the six months preceding the pandemic, as is our usual clinical practice. The comparison between the mean scores of PSI and CBCL before and after the pandemic showed a statistically significant increase in all subscales analyzed in the total sample. The correlation analysis showed significant positive relationship between the subscale Total Stress of PSI and the subscales Total Problems and Internalizing Problems of CBCL. Our study suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic and the corresponding measures adopted led to an increase in internalizing and externalizing symptoms in children and adolescents with neuropsychiatric disorder. Similarly, parental stress increased during COVID-19 and ahigher level of stress in parents can be related to the internalizing symptoms of their children

Benefits of glucocorticoids in non-ambulant boys/men with Duchenne muscular dystrophy: A multicentric longitudinal study using the Performance of Upper Limb test

The aim of this study was to establish the possible effect of glucocorticoid treatment on upper limb function in a cohort of 91 non-ambulant DMD boys and adults of age between 11 and 26 years. All 91 were assessed using the Performance of Upper Limb test. Forty-eight were still on glucocorticoid after loss of ambulation, 25 stopped steroids at the time they lost ambulation and 18 were GC naive or had steroids while ambulant for less than a year. At baseline the total scores ranged between 0 and 74 (mean 41.20). The mean total scores were 47.92 in the glucocorticoid group, 36 in those who stopped at loss of ambulation and 30.5 in the naive group (p <0.001). The 12-month changes ranged between -20 and 4 (mean -4.4). The mean changes were -3.79 in the glucocorticoid group, -5.52 in those who stopped at loss of ambulation and -4.44 in the naive group. This was more obvious in the patients between 12 and 18 years and at shoulder and elbow levels. Our findings suggest that continuing glucocorticoids throughout teenage years and adulthood after loss of ambulation appears to have a beneficial effect on upper limb function. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V