Estimands and their estimators for clinical trials Impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic: a report from the NISS Ingram Olkin Forum Series on unplanned clinical trial disruptions

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect the conduct of clinical trials globally. Complications may arise from pandemic-related operational challenges such as site closures, travel limitations and interruptions to the supply chain for the investigational product, or from health-related challenges such as COVID-19 infections. Some of these complications lead to unforeseen intercurrent events in the sense that they affect either the interpretation or the existence of the measurements associated with the clinical question of interest. In this article, we demonstrate how the ICH E9(R1) Addendum on estimands and sensitivity analyses provides a rigorous basis to discuss potential pandemic-related trial disruptions and to embed these disruptions in the context of study objectives and design elements. We introduce several hypothetical estimand strategies and review various causal inference and missing data methods, as well as a statistical method that combines unbiased and possibly biased estimators for estimation. To illustrate, we describe the features of a stylized trial, and how it may have been impacted by the pandemic. This stylized trial will then be re-visited by discussing the changes to the estimand and the estimator to account for pandemic disruptions. Finally, we outline considerations for designing future trials in the context of unforeseen disruptions

Second GHEP-ISFG exercise for DVI: “DNA-led” victims’ identification in a simulated air crash

The Spanish and Portuguese-Speaking Working Group of the International Society for Forensic Genetics (GHEP-ISFG) has organized a second collaborative exercise on a simulated case of Disaster Victim Identification (DVI), with the participation of eighteen laboratories. The exercise focused on the analysis of a simulated plane crash case of medium-size resulting in 66 victims with varying degrees of fragmentation of the bodies (with commingled remains). As an additional difficulty, this second exercise included 21 related victims belonging to 6 families among the 66 missings to be identified. A total number of 228 post-mortem samples were represented with aSTR and mtDNA profiles, with a proportion of partial aSTR profiles simulating charred remains. To perform the exercise, participants were provided with aSTR and mtDNA data of 51 reference pedigrees —some of which deficient—including 128 donors for identification purposes. The exercise consisted firstly in the comparison of the post-mortem genetic profiles in order to re-associate fragmented remains to the same individual and secondly in the identification of the re-associated remains by comparing aSTR and mtDNA profiles with reference pedigrees using pre-established thresholds to report a positive identification. Regarding the results of the post-mortem samples re-associations, only a small number of discrepancies among participants were detected, all of which were from just a few labs. However, in the identification process by kinship analysis with family references, there were more discrepancies in comparison to the correct results. The identification results of single victims yielded fewer problems than the identification of multiple related victims within the same family groups. Several reasons for the discrepant results were detected: a) the identity/non-identity hypotheses were sometimes wrongly expressed in the likelihood ratio calculations, b) some laboratories failed to use all family references to report the DNA match, c) In families with several related victims, some laboratories firstly identified some victims and then unnecessarily used their genetic information to identify the remaining victims within the family, d) some laboratories did not correctly use “prior odds” values for the Bayesian treatment of the episode for both post-mortem/post-mortem re-associations as well as the ante-mortem/post-mortem comparisons to evaluate the probability of identity. For some of the above reasons, certain laboratories failed to identify some victims. This simulated “DNA-led” identification exercise may help forensic genetic laboratories to gain experience and expertize for DVI or MPI in using genetic data and comparing their own results with the ones in this collaborative exercise.This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.Peer reviewe

Serotype distribution of Streptococcus pneumoniae causing invasive disease in children in the post-PCV era:A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND:Routine immunisation with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7/10/13) has reduced invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) due to vaccine serotypes significantly. However, an increase in disease due to non-vaccine types, or serotype replacement, has been observed. Serotypes' individual contributions to IPD play a critical role in determining the overall effects of PCVs. This study examines the distribution of pneumococcal serotypes in children to identify leading serotypes associated with IPD post-PCV introduction. METHODS:A systematic search was performed to identify studies and surveillance reports (published between 2000 and December 2015) of pneumococcal serotypes causing childhood IPD post-PCV introduction. Serotype data were differentiated based on the PCV administered during the study period: PCV7 or higher valent PCVs (PCV10 or PCV13). Meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the proportional contributions of the most frequent serotypes in childhood IPD in each period. RESULTS:We identified 68 studies reporting serotype data among IPD cases in children. We analysed data from 38 studies (14 countries) where PCV7 was administered and 20 (24 countries) where PCV10 or PCV13 have been introduced. Studies reported early and late periods of PCV7 administration (range: 2001∓13). In these settings, serotype 19A was the most predominant cause of childhood IPD, accounting for 21.8% (95%CI 18.6∓25.6) of cases. In countries that have introduced higher valent PCVs, study periods were largely representative of the transition and early years of PCV10 or PCV13. In these studies, the overall serotype-specific contribution of 19A was lower (14.2% 95%CI 11.1∓18.3). Overall, non-PCV13 serotypes contributed to 42.2% (95%CI 36.1∓49.5%) of childhood IPD cases. However, regional differences were noted (57.8% in North America, 71.9% in Europe, 45.9% in Western Pacific, 28.5% in Latin America, 42.7% in one African country, and 9.2% in one Eastern Mediterranean country). Predominant non-PCV13 serotypes overall were 22F, 12F, 33F, 24F, 15C, 15B, 23B, 10A, and 38 (descending order), but their rank order varied by region. CONCLUSION:Childhood IPD is associated with a wide number of serotypes. In the early years after introduction of higher valent PCVs, non-PCV13 types caused a considerable proportion of childhood IPD. Serotype data, particularly from resource-limited countries with high burden of IPD, are needed to assess the importance of serotypes in different settings. The geographic diversity of pneumococcal serotypes highlights the importance of continued surveillance to guide vaccine design and recommendations

XVI International Congress of Control Electronics and Telecommunications: "Techno-scientific considerations for a post-pandemic world intensive in knowledge, innovation and sustainable local development"

Este título, sugestivo por los impactos durante la situación de la Covid 19 en el mundo, y que en Colombia lastimosamente han sido muy críticos, permiten asumir la obligada superación de tensiones sociales, políticas, y económicas; pero sobre todo científicas y tecnológicas. Inicialmente, esto supone la existencia de una capacidad de la sociedad colombiana por recuperar su estado inicial después de que haya cesado la perturbación a la que fue sometida por la catastrófica pandemia, y superar ese anterior estado de cosas ya que se encontraban -y aún se encuentran- muchos problemas locales mal resueltos, medianamente resueltos, y muchos sin resolver: es decir, habrá que rediseñar y fortalecer una probada resiliencia social existente - producto del prolongado conflicto social colombiano superado parcialmente por un proceso de paz exitoso - desde la tecnociencia local; como lo indicaba Markus Brunnermeier - economista alemán y catedrático de economía de la Universidad de Princeton- en su libro The Resilient Society…La cuestión no es preveerlo todo sino poder reaccionar…aprender a recuperarse rápido.This title, suggestive of the impacts during the Covid 19 situation in the world, and which have unfortunately been very critical in Colombia, allows us to assume the obligatory overcoming of social, political, and economic tensions; but above all scientific and technological. Initially, this supposes the existence of a capacity of Colombian society to recover its initial state after the disturbance to which it was subjected by the catastrophic pandemic has ceased, and to overcome that previous state of affairs since it was found -and still is find - many local problems poorly resolved, moderately resolved, and many unresolved: that is, an existing social resilience test will have to be redesigned and strengthened - product of the prolonged Colombian social conflict partially overcome by a successful peace process - from local technoscience; As Markus Brunnermeier - German economist and professor of economics at Princeton University - indicates in his book The Resilient Society...The question is not to foresee everything but to be able to react...learn to recover quickly.Bogot

Estimands and their estimators for clinical trials impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic: a report from the NISS Ingram Olkin Forum Series on unplanned clinical trial disruptions

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect the conduct of clinical trials globally. Complications may arise from pandemic-related operational challenges such as site closures, travel limitations and interruptions to the supply chain for the investigational product, or from health-related challenges such as COVID-19 infections. Some of these complications lead to unforeseen intercurrent events in the sense that they affect either the interpretation or the existence of the measurements associated with the clinical question of interest. In this article, we demonstrate how the ICH E9(R1) Addendum on estimands and sensitivity analyses provides a rigorous basis to discuss potential pandemic-related trial disruptions and to embed these disruptions in the context of study objectives and design elements. We introduce several hypothetical estimand strategies and review various causal inference and missing data methods, as well as a statistical method that combines unbiased and possibly biased estimators for estimation. To illustrate, we describe the features of a stylized trial, and how it may have been impacted by the pandemic. This stylized trial will then be re-visited by discussing the changes to the estimand and the estimator to account for pandemic disruptions. Finally, we outline considerations for designing future trials in the context of unforeseen disruptions

Biomedical doctoral students’ research practices when facing dilemmas: two vignette-based randomized control trials

Abstract Our aim was to describe the research practices of doctoral students facing a dilemma to research integrity and to assess the impact of inappropriate research environments, i.e. exposure to (a) a post-doctoral researcher who committed a Detrimental Research Practice (DRP) in a similar situation and (b) a supervisor who did not oppose the DRP. We conducted two 2-arm, parallel-group randomized controlled trials. We created 10 vignettes describing a realistic dilemma with two alternative courses of action (good practice versus DRP). 630 PhD students were randomized through an online system to a vignette (a) with (n = 151) or without (n = 164) exposure to a post-doctoral researcher; (b) with (n = 155) or without (n = 160) exposure to a supervisor. The primary outcome was a score from − 5 to + 5, where positive scores indicated the choice of DRP and negative scores indicated good practice. Overall, 37% of unexposed participants chose to commit DRP with important variation across vignettes (minimum 10%; maximum 66%). The mean difference [95%CI] was 0.17 [− 0.65 to 0.99;], p = 0.65 when exposed to the post-doctoral researcher, and 0.79 [− 0.38; 1.94], p = 0.16, when exposed to the supervisor. In conclusion, we did not find evidence of an impact of postdoctoral researchers and supervisors on student research practices. Trial registration: NCT04263805, NCT04263506 (registration date 11 February 2020)

Biomedical doctoral students' research practices when facing dilemmas: two vignette-based randomized control trials

Our aim was to describe the research practices of doctoral students facing a dilemma to research integrity and to assess the impact of inappropriate research environments, i.e. exposure to (a) a post-doctoral researcher who committed a Detrimental Research Practice (DRP) in a similar situation and (b) a supervisor who did not oppose the DRP. We conducted two 2-arm, parallel-group randomized controlled trials. We created 10 vignettes describing a realistic dilemma with two alternative courses of action (good practice versus DRP). 630 PhD students were randomized through an online system to a vignette (a) with (n = 151) or without (n = 164) exposure to a post-doctoral researcher; (b) with (n = 155) or without (n = 160) exposure to a supervisor. The primary outcome was a score from - 5 to + 5, where positive scores indicated the choice of DRP and negative scores indicated good practice. Overall, 37% of unexposed participants chose to commit DRP with important variation across vignettes (minimum 10%; maximum 66%). The mean difference [95%CI] was 0.17 [- 0.65 to 0.99;], p = 0.65 when exposed to the post-doctoral researcher, and 0.79 [- 0.38; 1.94], p = 0.16, when exposed to the supervisor. In conclusion, we did not find evidence of an impact of postdoctoral researchers and supervisors on student research practices.Trial registration: NCT04263805, NCT04263506 (registration date 11 February 2020). </p

Mortality after surgery in Europe: a 7 day cohort study

Background: Clinical outcomes after major surgery are poorly described at the national level. Evidence of heterogeneity between hospitals and health-care systems suggests potential to improve care for patients but this potential remains unconfirmed. The European Surgical Outcomes Study was an international study designed to assess outcomes after non-cardiac surgery in Europe.Methods: We did this 7 day cohort study between April 4 and April 11, 2011. We collected data describing consecutive patients aged 16 years and older undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery in 498 hospitals across 28 European nations. Patients were followed up for a maximum of 60 days. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcome measures were duration of hospital stay and admission to critical care. We used χ² and Fisher’s exact tests to compare categorical variables and the t test or the Mann-Whitney U test to compare continuous variables. Significance was set at p&lt;0·05. We constructed multilevel logistic regression models to adjust for the differences in mortality rates between countries.Findings: We included 46 539 patients, of whom 1855 (4%) died before hospital discharge. 3599 (8%) patients were admitted to critical care after surgery with a median length of stay of 1·2 days (IQR 0·9–3·6). 1358 (73%) patients who died were not admitted to critical care at any stage after surgery. Crude mortality rates varied widely between countries (from 1·2% [95% CI 0·0–3·0] for Iceland to 21·5% [16·9–26·2] for Latvia). After adjustment for confounding variables, important differences remained between countries when compared with the UK, the country with the largest dataset (OR range from 0·44 [95% CI 0·19 1·05; p=0·06] for Finland to 6·92 [2·37–20·27; p=0·0004] for Poland).Interpretation: The mortality rate for patients undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery was higher than anticipated. Variations in mortality between countries suggest the need for national and international strategies to improve care for this group of patients.Funding: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine, European Society of Anaesthesiology

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity