Geoarchaeology and Heritage Management:Identifying and Quantifying Multi-Scalar Erosional Processes at Kisese II Rockshelter, Tanzania

Natural and anthropogenically induced soil erosion can cause serious loss of the archaeological record. Our work shows the value of multi-scalar geoarchaeological study when excavating and re-excavating rockshelters in a highly dynamic sedimentary environment where erosion is prominent. Here we present our work on Kisese II rockshelter, Tanzania, originally excavated in the 1950s and largely unpublished, that preserves an important Pleistocene-Holocene archaeological record integral to understanding the deep history of the Kondoa Rock-Art World Heritage Center. Unlike rockshelters in quiescent tectonic settings, like much of central Europe or South Africa, Kisese II exists in highly dynamic sedimentary environments associated with the active tectonics of the Great Rift Valley system exacerbated by human-induced environmental and climate change. We report on our 2017 and 2019 exploratory research that includes integrated regional-, landscape-, and site-scale geoarchaeological analyses of past and present sedimentary regimes and micromorphological analyses of the archaeological sediments. Historical records and aerial photographs document extensive changes in vegetation cover and erosional regimes since the 1920s, with drastic changes quantified between 1960 and 2019. Field survey points to an increased erosion rate between 2017 and 2019. To serve future archaeologists, heritage specialists, and local populations we combine our data in a geoarchaeological catena that includes soil, vegetation, fauna, and anthropogenic features on the landscape. At the site, micromorphological coupled with chronological analyses demonstrate the preservation of in situ Pleistocene deposits. Comparison of photographs from the 1956 and 2019 excavations show a maximum sediment loss of 68 cm in 63 years or >10% of >6-m-thick sedimentary deposit. In the studied area of the rockshelter we estimate ∼1 cm/yr of erosion, suggesting the ongoing removal of much of the higher archaeological sediments which, based on the coarse stratigraphic controls and chronology of the original Inskeep excavations, would suggest the loss of much of the archaeological record of the last ∼4000 years. These multi-scalar data are essential for the construction of appropriate mitigation strategies and further study of the remaining stratigraph

Haematological consequences of acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria: a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network pooled analysis of individual patient data

Background: Plasmodium falciparum malaria is associated with anaemia-related morbidity, attributable to host, parasite and drug factors. We quantified the haematological response following treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria to identify the factors associated with malarial anaemia. Methods: Individual patient data from eligible antimalarial efficacy studies of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, available through the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository prior to August 2015, were pooled using standardised methodology. The haematological response over time was quantified using a multivariable linear mixed effects model with nonlinear terms for time, and the model was then used to estimate the mean haemoglobin at day of nadir and day 7. Multivariable logistic regression quantified risk factors for moderately severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 7 g/dL) at day 0, day 3 and day 7 as well as a fractional fall ≥ 25% at day 3 and day 7. Results: A total of 70,226 patients, recruited into 200 studies between 1991 and 2013, were included in the analysis: 50,859 (72.4%) enrolled in Africa, 18,451 (26.3%) in Asia and 916 (1.3%) in South America. The median haemoglobin concentration at presentation was 9.9 g/dL (range 5.0–19.7 g/dL) in Africa, 11.6 g/dL (range 5.0–20.0 g/dL) in Asia and 12.3 g/dL (range 6.9–17.9 g/dL) in South America. Moderately severe anaemia (Hb < 7g/dl) was present in 8.4% (4284/50,859) of patients from Africa, 3.3% (606/18,451) from Asia and 0.1% (1/916) from South America. The nadir haemoglobin occurred on day 2 post treatment with a mean fall from baseline of 0.57 g/dL in Africa and 1.13 g/dL in Asia. Independent risk factors for moderately severe anaemia on day 7, in both Africa and Asia, included moderately severe anaemia at baseline (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 16.10 and AOR = 23.00, respectively), young age (age < 1 compared to ≥ 12 years AOR = 12.81 and AOR = 6.79, respectively), high parasitaemia (AOR = 1.78 and AOR = 1.58, respectively) and delayed parasite clearance (AOR = 2.44 and AOR = 2.59, respectively). In Asia, patients treated with an artemisinin-based regimen were at significantly greater risk of moderately severe anaemia on day 7 compared to those treated with a non-artemisinin-based regimen (AOR = 2.06 [95%CI 1.39–3.05], p < 0.001). Conclusions: In patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, the nadir haemoglobin occurs 2 days after starting treatment. Although artemisinin-based treatments increase the rate of parasite clearance, in Asia they are associated with a greater risk of anaemia during recovery

Impact of Information and Communication Technology-based Market Information Services on Smallholder Farm Input Use and Productivity: The Case of Kenya

Information asymmetry has traditionally constrained smallholder farmers’ access to markets. Past studies indicate that it inhibits adoption of modern technologies that have the capacity to enhance productivity of smallholder farms. Hence, farm productivity and agricultural transformation has been stifled, leaving smallholder famers in grinding poverty. Improved smallholder farmers’ access to markets via the recent Information and Communication Technology (ICT) platforms could reverse this scenario. This study uses Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique to evaluate the impact of participation in an ICT-based market information service (MIS) project on farm input use and productivity in Kenya. It finds strong empirical evidence on the benefits of ICT use in market linkage. Specifically, it finds that participation in the ICT-based MIS project has positive and significant impact on the usage of improved seeds and fertilizers. It also improves land and labour productivity, but has negative and significant impact on the usage of hired and family labour. These findings have vital policy implications on the use of ICT tools as a development strategy

Assessment of the influence of attitude and benefit-risk perceptions on yield variability among smallholder peri-urban commercial kale farmers in Wangige, Kenya

Declining soil fertility largely explains the gap between actual and potential yield among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates the relationship between yield variability in smallholder commercial kale (Brasica oleracea) production in Kenya and farmers’ attitudes for integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) as well as the relationship to a domain-specific risk-benefit preference scale. Data was collected from 125 peri-urban commercial kale farmers through personal interviews conducted by trained enumerators using a pre-tested questionnaire. Results of ordinary least squares regression indicate that farmers with strong attitudes in favour of ISFM experience decreased variability in yields. A significant negative relationship was observed between farmers expectation of benefits associated with soil fertility management technologies and yield variability. Farmers’ risk perception associated with the use of nonconventional soil fertility management practices, particularly the use of human faecal manure, increase variability in yields. However, risk perception associated with the use of conventional soil fertility management practices including application of animal manure, chemical fertilizers, crop rotation and use of crop residues significantly reduce yield variability. Individual farmers base their choice of ISFM practices on their assessment of both risks and benefits. It is argued, therefore, that in order to scale-up adoption of ISFM, policy should focus on increasing farmers’ access to information on the benefits associated with the practices while improving farmers’ perceptions of the risks associated with the use of non-conventional technologies such as human faecal manure by addressing farmers’ health concerns

Welfare-environmental quality tradeoffs of promoting use of certified seed potato in tropical highlands of Africa: Evidence from central highlands of Kenya

This paper used the propensity score method to assess the effect of using certified seed potato (CSP) on yield, input use, and food security among smallholder farmers. It focused on potato growers in central highlands of Kenya. The study found positive effect using certified seed on both yield and food security. But at the same time users of CSP applied significantly higher amounts of pesticides. This study therefore concludes that while using CSP has positive welfare effects, it can increase the use of inputs, some of which have environmentally degrading effects. It discusses the policy implications of the finding

Temporal distribution of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence following artemisinin-based combination therapy : an individual participant data meta-analysis

Background: The duration of trial follow-up affects the ability to detect recrudescent infections following anti-malarial treatment. The aim of this study was to explore the proportions of recrudescent parasitaemia as ascribed by genotyping captured at various follow-up time-points in treatment efficacy trials for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Methods: Individual patient data from 83 anti-malarial efficacy studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) repository with at least 28 days follow-up were available. The temporal and cumulative distributions of recrudescence were characterized using a Cox regression model with shared frailty on study-sites. Fractional polynomials were used to capture non-linear instantaneous hazard. The area under the density curve (AUC) of the constructed distribution was used to estimate the optimal follow-up period for capturing a P. falciparum malaria recrudescence. Simulation studies were conducted based on the constructed distributions to quantify the absolute overestimation in efficacy due to sub-optimal follow-up. Results: Overall, 3703 recurrent infections were detected in 60 studies conducted in Africa (15,512 children aged &lt; 5 years) and 23 studies conducted in Asia and South America (5272 patients of all ages). Using molecular genotyping, 519 (14.0%) recurrences were ascribed as recrudescent infections. A 28 day artemether-lumefantrine (AL) efficacy trial would not have detected 58% [95% confidence interval (CI) 47-74%] of recrudescences in African children and 32% [95% CI 15-45%] in patients of all ages in Asia/South America. The corresponding estimate following a 42 day dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) efficacy trial in Africa was 47% [95% CI 19-90%] in children under 5 years old treated with &gt; 48 mg/kg total piperaquine (PIP) dose and 9% [95% CI 0-22%] in those treated with &lt;= 48 mg/kg PIP dose. In absolute terms, the simulation study found that trials limited to 28 days follow-up following AL underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.8 percentage points compared to day 63 estimates and those limited to 42 days following DP underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.0 percentage points compared to day 42 estimates. The analysis was limited by few clinical trials following patients for longer than 42 days (9 out of 83 trials) and the imprecision of PCR genotyping which overcalls recrudescence in areas of higher transmission biasing the later distribution. Conclusions: Restricting follow-up of clinical efficacy trials to day 28 for AL and day 42 for DP will miss a proportion of late recrudescent treatment failures but will have a modest impact in derived efficacy. The results highlight that as genotyping methods improve consideration should be given for trials with longer duration of follow-up to detect early indications of emerging drug resistance