Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years

The North Atlantic experiences climate variability on multidecadal scales, which is sometimes referred to as Atlantic multidecadal variability. However, the relative contributions of external forcing such as changes in solar irradiance or volcanic activity and internal dynamics to these variations are unclear. Here we provide evidence for persistent summer Atlantic multidecadal variability from AD 800 to 2010 using a network of annually resolved terrestrial proxy records from the circum-North Atlantic region. We find that large volcanic eruptions and solar irradiance minima induce cool phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability and collectively explain about 30% of the variance in the reconstruction on timescales greater than 30 years. We are then able to isolate the internally generated component of Atlantic multidecadal variability, which we define as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. We find that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is the largest contributor to Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past 1,200 years. We also identify coherence between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations, leading us to conclude that the apparent link between Atlantic multidecadal variability and regional to hemispheric climate does not arise solely from a common response to external drivers, and may instead reflect dynamic processes

Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability

Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climate variability (ref. 1). Most model projections of the twenty-first century, however, under-sample future volcanic effects by not representing the range of plausible eruption scenarios (ref. 2,3,4). Here, we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistent with ice-core records (ref. 5), impact climate variability projections of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) (ref. 6) under RCP4.5 (ref. 7). The inclusion of volcanic forcing enhances climate variability on annual-to-decadal timescales. Although decades with negative global temperature trends become ∼50% more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming. Volcanic activity also impacts probabilistic projections of global radiation, sea level, ocean circulation, and sea-ice variability, the local-scale effects of which are detectable when quantifying the time of emergence (ref. 8). These results highlight the importance and feasibility of representing volcanic uncertainty in future climate assessments

How can the MHC mediate social odor via the microbiota community? A deep dive into mechanisms

Genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have long been linked to odor signaling and recently researchers’ attention has focused on MHC structuring of microbial communities and how this may in turn impact odor. However, understanding of the mechanisms through which the MHC could affect the microbiota to produce a chemical signal that is both reliable and strong enough to ensure unambiguous transmission of behaviorally important information remains poor. This is largely because empirical studies are rare, predictions are unclear, and the underlying immunological mechanisms governing MHC-microbiota interactions are often neglected. Here we review the immunological processes involving MHC class II (MHC-II) that could affect the commensal community. Focusing on immunological and medical research, we provide background knowledge for non-immunologists by describing key players within the vertebrate immune system relating to MHC-II molecules (which present extracellular-derived peptides, and thus interact with extracellular commensal microbes). We then systematically review the literature investigating MHC-odor-microbiota interactions in animals and identify areas for future research. These insights will help to design studies that are able to explore the role of MHC-II and the microbiota in the behavior of wild populations in their natural environment and consequently propel this research area forward