Fire has been an important driver of forest dynamics in the Carpathian Mountains during the Holocene

International audienc

Recent changes to the IMF, WTO and SPD: emerging global mode of regulation or social structure of accumulation for long wave upswing?

This paper examines the degree to which a new global mode of regulation (MOR) or social structure of accumulation (SSA) has emerged which may help to promote long wave upswing in the world economy. A series of institutional proxies are employed in this paper. Attention is given to the system-functions of global productivity and demand , through the performance of the prevailing system of production-distribution (SPD); global financial stability , proxied by the operations of the IMF; and global conflict resolution over trade issues, proxied through the workings of the WTO. The main findings are threefold. First, the SPD is only partially developed so as to promote productivity and demand. Second, some significant financial stability functions have been instigated through the IMF. And third, the WTO is undergoing major conflict due to the opposing policy proposals and criticisms by non-government organizations. This supports the conclusion that only limited success has been made in the emergence of a global MOR or SSA, not yet enough to promote (sustained) long wave upswing. The emergence of an effective global MOR or SSA to propel long wave upswing in the global economy is thus in the early-to-medium phase of development. Periodic uncertainty and deep recession (of an uneven character, interspersed with short-cycle upswings), are thus expected in the dominant economies during the early years of the twenty-first century until suitable institutional innovations emerge

Influence diagnostics for polyhazard models in the presence of covariates

Polyhazard model, Poly-Weibull distribution, Poly-log-logistic distribution, Influence diagnostics, Residual analysis,

Microbial nutrient niches in the gut

The composition and function of the mammalian gut microbiota has been the subject of much research in recent years, but the principles underlying the assembly and structure of this complex community remain incompletely understood. Processes that shape the gut microbiota are thought to be mostly niche-driven, with environmental factors such as the composition of available nutrients largely determining whether or not an organism can establish. The concept that the nutrient landscape dictates which organisms can successfully colonize and persist in the gut was first proposed in Rolf Freter's nutrient niche theory. In a situation where nutrients are perfectly mixed and there is balanced microbial growth, Freter postulated that an organism can only survive if it is able to utilize one or a few limiting nutrients more efficiently than its competitors. Recent experimental work indicates, however, that nutrients in the gut vary in space and time. We propose that in such a scenario, Freter's nutrient niche theory must be expanded to account for the co-existence of microorganisms utilizing the same nutrients but in distinct sites or at different times, and that metabolic flexibility and mixed-substrate utilization are common strategies for survival in the face of ever-present nutrient fluctuations.</p