Stable forest carbon stocks support current assumption of biogenic carbon neutrality in the case of European-manufactured beverage cartons

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this recordPurpose: Life cycle assessments (LCAs) of forest-based products, such as beverage cartons, generally demonstrate lower greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuel-based alternatives and often contain the implicit assumption that removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) by a growing forest and emission of CO2at the end of a product’s life cancel each other out such that the net emission is zero. This study aims to test the validity of this assumption of biogenic CO2neutrality in relation to beverage cartons by examining whether carbon stocks of the source forests are stable. The fact that over 95 % of the cartonboard used in their manufacture is sourced from the boreal forests of Sweden and Finland provides a scenario with a straightforward relationship between forest and product thus avoiding issues surrounding the complexities of global supply chains. Methods: The reviewed LCAs conclude that beverage cartons have lower greenhouse gas emissions than alternatives, although non-forest-derived components such as plastic caps and aluminium laminate often contribute disproportionately to those emissions. We discuss issues surrounding the assumption of biogenic CO2neutrality and explore the factors that influence carbon stocks in boreal forests that supply much of the raw material for beverage cartons. Results and discussion: An analysis of published rates of carbon sequestration in the managed forests of Finland and Sweden reveals that forest carbon is stable under current harvest rates. This lends support to the assumption of biogenic CO2neutrality in the case of beverage cartons produced from these forests. We conclude that greenhouse gas emissions would not change if an LCA included forest carbon. However, future forest dynamics and thus carbon stocks are predicted to alter in response to climate change, for example, which will have knock on effects for greenhouse gas emissions from packaging derived from forests. Conclusions: This review combines current thinking on inclusion of forest carbon in LCAs with an analysis of issues that will influence carbon stocks in managed forests. Although current assumptions of biogenic CO2neutrality are valid in the case of European-manufactured beverage cartons, we argue that this assumption needs to be explicitly addressed in LCAs. While there is no accepted methodology for integrating biogenic forest carbon uptake into LCA, our assessment of current trends in forest carbon stocks allows for assumptions of biogenic CO2neutrality to be tested, although our approach may not be practical for more complex supply chains.This paper is based on research funded by The Alliance for Beverage Cartons and the Environment (ACE) UK and the Earthwatch Institute

Leaf-level photosynthetic capacity in lowland Amazonian and high elevation, Andean tropical moist forests of Peru

We examined whether variations in photosynthetic capacity are linked to variations in theenvironment and/or associated leaf traits for tropical moist forests (TMFs) in the Andes/west-ern Amazon regions of Peru. We compared photosynthetic capacity (maximal rate of carboxylation of Rubisco (Vcmax),and the maximum rate of electron transport (Jmax)), leaf mass, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus(P) per unit leaf area (Ma,Naand Pa, respectively), and chlorophyll from 210 species at 18field sites along a 3300-m elevation gradient. Western blots were used to quantify the abun-dance of the CO₂-fixing enzyme Rubisco. Area- and N-based rates of photosynthetic capacity at 25°C were higher in upland than low-land TMFs, underpinned by greater investment of N in photosynthesis in high-elevation trees. Soil [P] and leaf Pa were key explanatory factors for models of area-based Vcmax and Jmax but did not account for variations in photosynthetic N-use efficiency. At any given Na and Pa, the fraction of N allocated to photosynthesis was higher in upland than lowland species. For a smallsubset of lowland TMF trees examined, a substantial fraction of Rubisco was inactive. These results highlight the importance of soil- and leaf-P in defining the photosyntheticcapacity of TMFs, with variations in N allocation and Rubisco activation state further influenc-ing photosynthetic rates and N-use efficiency of these critically important forests

High incidence of metastatic disease in primary high grade and large extremity soft tissue sarcomas treated without chemotherapy

BACKGROUND: The risk of metastasis and the survival in patients with primary extremity soft tissue sarcomas is worse when tumour size is large and the grade of malignancy is high. Such tumours may receive chemotherapy and/or radiation therapy (RTX) for optimising local control. Irradiation can either be applied preoperatively or after tumour resection. The question arises if the kind of RTX in the absence of chemotherapy influences the outcome concerning local control, metastatic disease, survival and complications. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the clinical outcome of 233 patients with a primary extremity soft tissue sarcoma treated between 1990 – 2000 with a mean follow-up of 35.8 (4–120) months in our institute. 41 patients had high grade, deep and large tumours (>8 cm), an AJCC stage III (no evidence of metastasis prior to treatment) and were treated with limb salvage surgery and irradiation but stayed without additional chemotherapy. Two groups of patients were compared: the first group received postoperative RTX after tumour resection (n = 33); the second group was treated with preoperative RTX (n = 8). Both groups did not differ concerning clinical parameters. We analysed primary and secondary outcomes. RESULTS: 56% (23/41) of the population developed metastatic disease, 24% (10/41) local recurrence. The risk of metastasis was higher in the group with preoperative irradiation (p = 0.046). The overall (p = 0.0248) and relapse free survival (p = 0.104) were worse in this group. The delay to tumour resection amounted 8 weeks on average in the preoperative group. Local control was not different (p = 0.38) in both study groups. Wound infections and other combined therapy related complications were equally distributed (p = 0.22). CONCLUSION: Without chemotherapy there remains a high risk of metastasis in AJCC grade 3 patients. In high risk patients treated without chemotherapy the elapsed time to tumour resection after preoperative radiation might contribute to the development of metastasis. This outcome may support the thesis that a combination of RTX and offensive multimodal treatment protocols is advantageous in such a subset of patient

Pre-Existing Isoniazid Resistance, but Not the Genotype of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Drives Rifampicin Resistance Codon Preference in Vitro

Both the probability of a mutation occurring and the ability of the mutant to persist will influence the distribution of mutants that arise in a population. We studied the interaction of these factors for the in vitro selection of rifampicin (RIF)-resistant mutants of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We characterised two series of spontaneous RIF-resistant in vitro mutants from isoniazid (INH)-sensitive and -resistant laboratory strains and clinical isolates, representing various M. tuberculosis genotypes. The first series were selected from multiple parallel 1 ml cultures and the second from single 10 ml cultures. RIF-resistant mutants were screened by Multiplex Ligation-dependent Probe Amplification (MLPA) or by sequencing the rpoB gene. For all strains the mutation rate for RIF resistance was determined with a fluctuation assay. The most striking observation was a shift towards rpoB-S531L (TCG→TTG) mutations in a panel of laboratory-generated INH-resistant mutants selected from the 10-ml cultures (p<0.001). All tested strains showed similar mutation rates (1.33×10−8 to 2.49×10−7) except one of the laboratory-generated INH mutants with a mutation rate measured at 5.71×10−7, more than 10 times higher than that of the INH susceptible parental strain (5.46–7.44×10−8). No significant, systematic difference in the spectrum of rpoB-mutations between strains of different genotypes was observed. The dramatic shift towards rpoB-S531L in our INH-resistant laboratory mutants suggests that the relative fitness of resistant mutants can dramatically impact the distribution of (subsequent) mutations that accumulate in a M. tuberculosis population, at least in vitro. We conclude that, against specific genetic backgrounds, certain resistance mutations are particularly likely to spread. Molecular screening for these (combinations of) mutations in clinical isolates could rapidly identify these particular pathogenic strains. We therefore recommend that isolates are screened for the distribution of resistance mutations, especially in regions that are highly endemic for (multi)drug resistant tuberculosis

Twelve-month observational study of children with cancer in 41 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction Childhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality. Methods Prospective cohort study in 109 institutions in 41 countries. Inclusion criteria: children &lt;18 years who were newly diagnosed with or undergoing active treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, retinoblastoma, Wilms tumour, glioma, osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, medulloblastoma and neuroblastoma. Of 2327 cases, 2118 patients were included in the study. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 12 months. Results All-cause mortality was 3.4% (n=71/2084) at 30-day follow-up, 5.7% (n=113/1969) at 90-day follow-up and 13.0% (n=206/1581) at 12-month follow-up. The median time from diagnosis to multidisciplinary team (MDT) plan was longest in low-income countries (7 days, IQR 3-11). Multivariable analysis revealed several factors associated with 12-month mortality, including low-income (OR 6.99 (95% CI 2.49 to 19.68); p&lt;0.001), lower middle income (OR 3.32 (95% CI 1.96 to 5.61); p&lt;0.001) and upper middle income (OR 3.49 (95% CI 2.02 to 6.03); p&lt;0.001) country status and chemotherapy (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.86); p=0.008) and immunotherapy (OR 0.27 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.91); p=0.035) within 30 days from MDT plan. Multivariable analysis revealed laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 5.33 (95% CI 1.19 to 23.84); p=0.029) was associated with 30-day mortality. Conclusions Children with cancer are more likely to die within 30 days if infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, timely treatment reduced odds of death. This report provides crucial information to balance the benefits of providing anticancer therapy against the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with cancer

AusTraits, a curated plant trait database for the Australian flora

We introduce the AusTraits database - a compilation of values of plant traits for taxa in the Australian flora (hereafter AusTraits). AusTraits synthesises data on 448 traits across 28,640 taxa from field campaigns, published literature, taxonomic monographs, and individual taxon descriptions. Traits vary in scope from physiological measures of performance (e.g. photosynthetic gas exchange, water-use efficiency) to morphological attributes (e.g. leaf area, seed mass, plant height) which link to aspects of ecological variation. AusTraits contains curated and harmonised individual- and species-level measurements coupled to, where available, contextual information on site properties and experimental conditions. This article provides information on version 3.0.2 of AusTraits which contains data for 997,808 trait-by-taxon combinations. We envision AusTraits as an ongoing collaborative initiative for easily archiving and sharing trait data, which also provides a template for other national or regional initiatives globally to fill persistent gaps in trait knowledge

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified