Can cohort data be treated as genuine panel data?

If repeated observations on the same individuals are not available it is not possible to capture unobserved individual characteristics in a linear model by using the standard fixed effects estimator. If large numbers of observations are available in each period one can use cohorts of individuals with common characteristics to achieve the same goal, as shown by Deaton (1985). It is tempting to analyze the observations on cohort averages as if they are observations on individuals which are observed in consecutive time periods. In this paper we analyze under which conditions this is a valid approach. Moreover, we consider the impact of the construction of the cohorts on the bias in the standard fixed effects estimator. Our results show that the effects of ignoring the fact that only a synthetic panel is available will be small if the cohort sizes are sufficiently large (100, 200 individuals) and if the true means within each cohort exhibit sufficient time variation

Self-injurious behavior in people with intellectual disabilities and co-occurring psychopathology using the Self-Harm Scale:A pilot study

Self-injurious behavior (SIB) is one of the most detrimental behaviors for the person showing it, as well as for their environment. Nevertheless, structured clinical assessments of SIB are scarce. Staff completed a Self-Harm Scale (SHS) every time they witnessed SIB in clients with an intellectual disability (ID) and co-occurring psychopathology (N = 33). Descriptive statistics were conducted to explore the nature of the incidents of SIB and the characteristics of the people involved in the incidents. In 41 weeks, 104 SIB incidents were reported for 8 out of 33 clients (24%). Incidents were most prevalent on Mondays (23%). As far as the methods of SIB concerned, cutting was the most used method (63%). Clients who showed SIB differed significantly from clients who did not on gender, having a personality disorder and communicative abilities. This study was one of the few that used an incident-based record form to report SIB by direct observation. It is hoped that the SHS helps to gain more information about SIB, to improve individualized interventions. Further research is necessary to determine the psychometric properties and clinical utility of the scale

Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in the immunotherapy era

The clinical success of cancer immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) has refocused attention on tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) across cancer types. The outcome of immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy in cancer patients has been linked to the quality and magnitude of T cell, NK cell, and more recently, B cell responses within the tumor microenvironment. State-of-the-art single-cell analysis of TIL gene expression profiles and clonality has revealed a remarkable degree of cellular heterogeneity and distinct patterns of immune activation and exhaustion. Many of these states are conserved across tumor types, in line with the broad responses observed clinically. Despite this homology, not all cancer types with similar TIL landscapes respond similarly to immunotherapy, highlighting the complexity of the underlying tumor-immune interactions. This observation is further confounded by the strong prognostic benefit of TILs observed for tumor types that have so far respond poorly to immunotherapy. Thus, while a holistic view of lymphocyte infiltration and dysfunction on a single-cell level is emerging, the search for response and prognostic biomarkers is just beginning. Within this review, we discuss recent advances in the understanding of TIL biology, their prognostic benefit, and their predictive value for therapy

Market surveys in Mataram, Lombok, illustrate the expanse of legal and illegal Indonesian bird trade networks

Bird keeping is deeply rooted in Indonesian culture and markets selling large numbers of birds are found across the country. We examined bird markets in Mataram on the island of Lombok. Across five market visits, 10,326 birds of 108 species were observed, with 18 of these species being nationally protected and 10 having been assessed as globally threatened by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Observed protected species, as well as non-protected species with no or exceeded harvest quotas accounted for a total of 8,586 (83.1%) illegally traded birds. In terms of trade volume, 80.8% (n=8,347) of the recorded Indonesian birds were native to Lombok, suggesting that many of the birds for sale were sourced locally. However, 63% (n=65) of the encountered Indonesian species were not native to Lombok, confirming previously described intra-national bird trade flows between the Indonesian islands. We found a strong positive relation between a species body size and its asking price. Current legislation in Indonesia is sufficient to eradicate the open trade in illegally sourced and/or protected species. Improved enforcement of these laws, in combination with strategic demand reduction efforts, is needed to curb illegal and unsustainable bird trade in the country

Internal-external cross-validation helped to evaluate the generalizability of prediction models in large clustered datasets

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate how to evaluate the need of complex strategies for developing generalizable prediction models in large clustered datasets. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We developed eight Cox regression models to estimate the risk of heart failure using a large population-level dataset. These models differed in the number of predictors, the functional form of the predictor effects (non-linear effects and interaction) and the estimation method (maximum likelihood and penalization). Internal-external cross-validation was used to evaluate the models' generalizability across the included general practices. RESULTS: Among 871,687 individuals from 225 general practices, 43,987 (5.5%) developed heart failure during a median follow-up time of 5.8 years. For discrimination, the simplest prediction model yielded a good concordance statistic, which was not much improved by adopting complex strategies. Between-practice heterogeneity in discrimination was similar in all models. For calibration, the simplest model performed satisfactorily. Although accounting for non-linear effects and interaction slightly improved the calibration slope, it also led to more heterogeneity in the observed/expected ratio. Similar results were found in a second case study involving patients with stroke. CONCLUSION: In large clustered datasets, prediction model studies may adopt internal-external cross-validation to evaluate the generalizability of competing models, and to identify promising modelling strategies

Immunologic aspect of ovarian cancer and p53 as tumor antigen

Ovarian cancer represents the fifth leading cause of death from all cancers for women. During the last decades overall survival has improved due to the use of new chemotherapy schedules. Still, the majority of patients die of this disease. Research reveals that ovarian cancer patients exhibit significant immune responses against their tumor. In this review the knowledge obtained thus far on the interaction of ovarian cancer tumor cells and the immune system is discussed. Furthermore the role of p53 as tumor antigen and its potential role as target antigen in ovarian cancer is summarized. Based on the increased knowledge on the role of the immune system in ovarian cancer major improvements are to be expected of immunotherapy based treatment of this disease

The Role of Thailand in the International Trade in CITES-Listed Live Reptiles and Amphibians

BACKGROUND: International wildlife trade is one of the leading threats to biodiversity conservation. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) is the most important initiative to monitor and regulate the international trade of wildlife but its credibility is dependent on the quality of the trade data. We report on the performance of CITES reporting by focussing on the commercial trade in non-native reptiles and amphibians into Thailand as to illustrate trends, species composition and numbers of wild-caught vs. captive-bred specimens. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Based on data in the WCMC-CITES trade database, we establish that a total of 75,594 individuals of 169 species of reptiles and amphibians (including 27 globally threatened species) were imported into Thailand in 1990-2007. The majority of individuals (59,895, 79%) were listed as captive-bred and a smaller number (15,699, 21%) as wild-caught. In the 1990s small numbers of individuals of a few species were imported into Thailand, but in 2003 both volumes and species diversity increased rapidly. The proportion of captive-bred animals differed greatly between years (from 0 to >80%). Wild-caught individuals were mainly sourced from African countries, and captive-bred individuals from Asian countries (including from non-CITES Parties). There were significant discrepancies between exports and imports. Thailand reports the import of >10,000 individuals (51 species) originating from Kazakhstan, but Kazakhstan reports no exports of these species. Similar discrepancies, involving smaller numbers (>100 individuals of 9 species), can be seen in the import of reptiles into Thailand via Macao. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: While there has been an increase in imports of amphibian and reptiles into Thailand, erratic patterns in proportions of captive-bred specimens and volumes suggests either capricious markets or errors in reporting. Large discrepancies with respect to origin point to misreporting or possible violations of the rules and intentions of CITES

Towards informed and multi-faceted wildlife trade interventions

International trade in wildlife is a key threat to biodiversity conservation. CITES, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, is the primary mechanism for controlling international wildlife trade and seeks to ensure it is sustainable, relying on trade bans and controls. However, there has been little comprehensive review of the effectiveness of CITES. Here, we review typical and atypical approaches taken to regulate wildlife trade in CITES and assert that it boasts few successes. We attribute this to: non-compliance, an over reliance on regulation, lack of knowledge of listed species, ignorance of the reality of market forces, and influence among CITES actors. To more effectively manage trade we argue that interventions need to go beyond regulation and should be multi-faceted, reflecting the complexity of wildlife trade. To inform such interventions we assert an intensive research effort is needed and we outline six key research areas: (1) factors undermining wildlife trade governance at the national level, (2) determining sustainable harvest rates for CITES species, (3) gaining the buy-in of local communities in implementing CITES, (4) supply and demand based market interventions, (5) means of quantifying illicit trade, and (6) political processes and influence within CITES

Short-term prediction of threatening and violent behaviour in an Acute Psychiatric Intensive Care Unit based on patient and environment characteristics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aims of the present study were to investigate clinically relevant patient and environment-related predictive factors for threats and violent incidents the first three days in a PICU population based on evaluations done at admittance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 2000 and 2001 all 118 consecutive patients were assessed at admittance to a Psychiatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU). Patient-related conditions as actuarial data from present admission, global clinical evaluations by physician at admittance and clinical nurses first day, a single rating with an observer rated scale scoring behaviours that predict short-term violence in psychiatric inpatients (The Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC)) at admittance, and environment-related conditions as use of segregation or not were related to the outcome measure Staff Observation Aggression Scale-Revised (SOAS-R). A multiple logistic regression analysis with SOAS-R as outcome variable was performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The global clinical evaluations and the BVC were effective and more suitable than actuarial data in predicting short-term aggression. The use of segregation reduced the number of SOAS-R incidents.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In a naturalistic group of patients in a PICU segregation of patients lowers the number of aggressive and threatening incidents. Prediction should be based on clinical global judgment, and instruments designed to predict short-term aggression in psychiatric inpatients.</p> <p>Trial registrations</p> <p><a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00184119">NCT00184119</a>/<a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00184132">NCT00184132</a></p

Predicting inpatient violence using an extended version of the Brøset-Violence-Checklist: instrument development and clinical application

BACKGROUND: Patient aggression is a common problem in acute psychiatric wards and calls for preventive measures. The timely use of preventive measures presupposes a preceded risk assessment. The Norwegian Brøset-Violence-Checklist (BVC) is one of the few instruments suited for short-time prediction of violence of psychiatric inpatients in routine care. Aims of our study were to improve the accuracy of the short-term prediction of violence in acute inpatient settings by combining the Brøset-Violence-Checklist (BVC) with an overall subjective clinical risk-assessment and to test the application of the combined measure in daily practice. METHOD: We conducted a prospective cohort study with two samples of newly admitted psychiatric patients for instrument development (219 patients) and clinical application (300 patients). Risk of physical attacks was assessed by combining the 6-item BVC and a 6-point score derived from a Visual Analog Scale. Incidents were registered with the Staff Observation of Aggression Scale-Revised SOAS-R. Test accuracy was described as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC(ROC)). RESULTS: The AUC(ROC )of the new VAS-complemented BVC-version (BVC-VAS) was 0.95 in and 0.89 in the derivation and validation study respectively. CONCLUSION: The BVC-VAS is an easy to use and accurate instrument for systematic short-term prediction of violent attacks in acute psychiatric wards. The inclusion of the VAS-derived data did not change the accuracy of the original BVC