Phenological tracking of a seasonal climate window in a recovering tropical island bird species

Constraints on evolutionary adaptation and range shifts mean that phenotypic plasticity, which includes physiological, developmental or behavioural responses to environmental conditions, could be an important mode of adaptation to a changing climate for many species with small insular populations. While there is evidence to suggest adaptive plasticity to climate in some island populations, little is known about this capacity in species that have experienced a severe population bottleneck. In a changing climate, plasticity in the timing of life-history events, such as in breeding phenology, is adaptive if timing is optimised in seasonal environments, although these processes are poorly understood for tropical species. Here, we quantify the effects of climate on the breeding phenology and success of the Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus), a tropical raptor whose extinction has been averted by conservation management. We show that the timing of egg-laying is advancing in response to warming, at rates similar to temperate bird populations. Individual females show plasticity to temperature, although there is limited variation among individual responses. We show that advances in breeding phenology are likely to be adaptive, as they track changes in a seasonal climate window of favourable conditions, defined by late winter-early spring temperatures and the onset of the summer rainy season. Our results provide a rare example of a small and bottlenecked insular population that has adjusted to recent climate change through phenotypic plasticity. Furthermore, seasonal climate windows and their dynamics may be widespread mechanisms through which tropical species are impacted by and respond to climate change

Status and phenology of breeding seabirds and a review of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas in the British Indian Ocean Territory

This is the final version. Available on open access from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this recordSeabirds are one of the most threatened avian taxa and are hence a high conservation priority. Managing seabirds is challenging, requiring conservation actions at sea (e.g. Marine Protected Areas - MPAs) and on land (e.g. protection of breeding sites). Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) have been successfully used to identify sites of global importance for the conservation of bird populations, including breeding seabirds. The challenge of identifying suitable IBAs for tropical seabirds is exacerbated by high levels of dispersal, aseasonal and asynchronous breeding. The western Indian Ocean supports ~19 million breeding seabirds of 30 species, making it one of the most significant tropical seabird assemblages in the world. Within this is the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), encompassing 55 islands of the Chagos Archipelago, which supports 18 species of breeding seabird and one of the world’s largest no-take MPAs. Between January and March in 1975 and 1996, eight and 45 islands respectively were surveyed for seabirds and the data used to designate 10 islands as IBAs. A further two were proposed following an expedition to 26 islands in February/March 2006. Due to the historic and restricted temporal and spatial nature of these surveys, the current IBA recommendations may not accurately represent the archipelago’s present seabird status and distribution. To update estimates of the BIOT breeding seabird assemblage and reassess the current IBA recommendations, we used seabird census data collected in every month except September from every island, gathered during 2008–2018. The maximum number of breeding seabirds for a nominal year was 281,596 pairs of 18 species, with three species making up 96%: Sooty Tern Onychoprion fuscatus - 70%, Lesser Noddy Anous tenuirostris - 18% and Red-footed Booby Sula sula - 8%. Phenology was a complex species-specific mix of synchronous and asynchronous breeding, as well as seasonal and aseasonal breeding. Nine of the 10 designated IBAs and the two proposed IBAs qualified for IBA status based on breeding seabirds. However, not every IBA qualified each year because Sooty Terns periodically abandoned breeding islands and Tropical Shearwater Puffinus bailloni breeding numbers dropped below IBA qualifying criteria in some years. Further, one survey per year does not always capture the periodic breeding of some tropical seabirds. We propose therefore, that IBAs in BIOT are better designated at the island cluster level rather than by specific island and require two surveys six months apart per year. This work highlights the merits of long-term, systematic, versus incidental surveys for breeding tropical seabirds and the subsequent associated designation of IBAs.Bertarelli Foundatio

The impact of habitat quality inside protected areas on distribution of the Dominican Republic's last endemic non-volant land mammals

The Hispaniolan solenodon, Solenodon paradoxus, and Hispaniolan hutia, Plagiodontia aedium, are the Dominican Republic’s only surviving endemic non-volant land mammals, and are high priorities for conservation. The country has an extensive protected area (PA) network designed to maintain habitats and benefit biodiversity, but which faces significant anthropogenic threats likely to detrimentally impact both species. We examined how differences in habitats, forest structure, topography, and human activity influence presence of solenodons and hutias across the Dominican Republic. Systematic surveys of seven PAs were undertaken to record indirect signs, with presence-absence data analyzed using a multi-model inference approach incorporating ecological variables from both field and GIS data. Solenodons were detected relatively frequently, whereas detections of hutias were uncommon. Lower elevations, increased surrounding tree cover, canopy closure, and reduced levels of low vegetation are all associated with increased probability of detecting solenodons, whereas agriculture and mangrove represent poor-quality habitat. Increased canopy closure, tree basal area (indicating older-growth forest), and increased rock substrate (providing more den sites) are associated with increased probability of detecting hutias. Our findings indicated that human activities within PAs are likely to negatively affect both species, and conservation activities should focus on preventing encroachment and conversion of forest to agriculture to maintain high-quality forest habitats. / El solenodonte de la Hispaniola, Solenodon paradoxus, y la hutia de la Hispaniola, Plagiodontia aedium, son los únicos mamíferos endémicos terrestres no voladores que sobreviven en la República Dominicana, su conservación es de alta prioridad. El país tiene una extensa red de áreas protegidas (AP) diseñada para mantener hábitats y beneficiar la biodiversidad, pero se enfrenta a amenazas antropogénicas. Sin embargo, no existen datos cuantitativos para evaluar las presiones antropogénicas que amenazan a los solenodontes y las hutias. Examinamos cómo las diferencias en los hábitats, la estructura del bosque, la topografía y la actividad humana influyen la presencia de solenodontes y hutias en toda la República Dominicana. Se realizaron encuestas sistemáticas de siete AP para registrar los signos indirectos de ambas especies, los datos de presencia/ausencia fueron analizados mediante inferencia multimodelo que incorpora variables ecológicas de los datos de campo y Sistema de Información Geográfica. Los Solenodontes se detectaron relativamente frecuentemente, mientras que las detecciones de hutias fueron menos comunes. Las elevaciones más bajas, el aumento de la cubierta arbórea circundante, el cierre del dosel y los niveles reducidos de vegetación baja se asocian con una mayor probabilidad de detectar solenodones. Mientras que la agricultura y los manglares representan un hábitat de mala calidad para el solenodonte. Aumento del cierre del dosel, área basal del árbol (que indica un bosque más antiguo) y un sustrato con mayor proporcion de roca (que proporciona más sitios para madrigueras) se asocian con una mayor probabilidad de detectar hutias. Nuestros hallazgos indican que las actividades humanas dentro de las AP pueden afectar negativamente a ambas especies. Las actividades de conservación deberían enfocarse en mantener hábitats forestales de alta calidad por medio de prevenir la invasión y la conversión de los bosques a agricultura

Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration

Estimating the contribution of demographic parameters to changes in population growth is essential for understanding why populations fluctuate. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a possibility to estimate the contributions of additional demographic parameters, for which no data have been explicitly collected—typically immigration. Such parameters are often subsequently highlighted as important drivers of population growth. Yet, accuracy in estimating their temporal variation, and consequently their contribution to changes in population growth rate, has not been investigated. To quantify the magnitude and cause of potential biases when estimating the contribution of immigration using IPMs, we simulated data (using northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe population estimates) from controlled scenarios to examine potential biases and how they depend on IPM parameterization, formulation of priors, the level of temporal variation in immigration and sample size. We also used empirical data on populations with known rates of immigration: Soay sheep Ovis aries and Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus with zero immigration and grey wolf Canis lupus in Scandinavia with near-zero immigration. IPMs strongly overestimated the contribution of immigration to changes in population growth in scenarios when immigration was simulated with zero temporal variation (proportion of variance attributed to immigration = 63% for the more constrained formulation and real sample size) and in the wild populations, where the true number of immigrants was zero or near-zero (kestrel 19.1%–98.2%, sheep 4.2%–36.1% and wolf 84.0%–99.2%). Although the estimation of the contribution of immigration in the simulation study became more accurate with increasing temporal variation and sample size, it was often not possible to distinguish between an accurate estimation from data with high temporal variation versus an overestimation from data with low temporal variation. Unrealistically, large sample sizes may be required to estimate the contribution of immigration well. To minimize the risk of overestimating the contribution of immigration (or any additional parameter) in IPMs, we recommend to: (a) look for evidence of variation in immigration before investigating its contribution to population growth, (b) simulate and model data for comparison to the real data and (c) use explicit data on immigration when possible

Translocations as Experiments in the Ecological Resilience of an Asocial Mega-Herbivore

Species translocations are remarkable experiments in evolutionary ecology, and increasingly critical to biodiversity conservation. Elaborate socio-ecological hypotheses for translocation success, based on theoretical fitness relationships, are untested and lead to complex uncertainty rather than parsimonious solutions. We used an extraordinary 89 reintroduction and 102 restocking events releasing 682 black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) to 81 reserves in southern Africa (1981–2005) to test the influence of interacting socio-ecological and individual characters on post-release survival. We predicted that the socio-ecological context should feature more prominently after restocking than reintroduction because released rhinoceros interact with resident conspecifics. Instead, an interaction between release cohort size and habitat quality explained reintroduction success but only individuals' ages explained restocking outcomes. Achieving translocation success for many species may not be as complicated as theory suggests. Black rhino, and similarly asocial generalist herbivores without substantial predators, are likely to be resilient to ecological challenges and robust candidates for crisis management in a changing world

Sex-specific effects of the local social environment on juvenile post-fledging dispersal in great tits

An individual’s decision to disperse from the natal habitat can affect its future fitness prospects. Especially in species with sex-biased dispersal, we expect the cost–benefit balance for dispersal to vary according to the social environment (e.g., local sex ratio and density). However, little is known about the social factors affecting dispersal decisions and about the temporal and spatial patterns of the dispersal process. In our study, we investigated experimentally the effects of the social environment on post-fledging dispersal of juvenile great tits by simultaneously manipulating the density and sex ratio of fledglings within forest plots. We expected young females in the post-fledging period mainly to compete for resources related to food and, as they are subordinate to males, we predicted higher female dispersal from male-biased plots. Juvenile males compete for vacant territories already in late summer and autumn; thus, we predicted increased male dispersal from high density and male-biased plots. We found that juvenile females had a higher probability to leave male-biased plots and had dispersed further from male-biased plots in the later post-fledging phase when juvenile males start to become territorial and more aggressive. Juvenile males were least likely to leave male-biased plots and had smallest dispersal distances from female-biased plots early after fledging. The results suggest that the social environment differentially affected the costs and benefits of philopatry for male and female juveniles. The local sex ratio of individuals is thus an important social trait to be considered for understanding sex-specific dispersal processes

Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration

1. Estimating the contribution of demographic parameters to changes in population growth is essential for understanding why populations fluctuate. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a possibility to estimate the contributions of additional demographic parameters, for which no data have been explicitly collected— typically immigration. Such parameters are often subsequently highlighted as important drivers of population growth. Yet, accuracy in estimating their temporal variation, and consequently their contribution to changes in population growth rate, has not been investigated. 2. To quantify the magnitude and cause of potential biases when estimating the contribution of immigration using IPMs, we simulated data (using northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe population estimates) from controlled scenarios to examine potential biases and how they depend on IPM parameterization, formulation of priors, the level of temporal variation in immigration and sample size. We also used empirical data on populations with known rates of immigration: Soay sheep Ovis aries and Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus with zero immigration and grey wolf Canis lupus in Scandinavia with near-zero immigration. 3. IPMs strongly overestimated the contribution of immigration to changes in population growth in scenarios when immigration was simulated with zero temporal variation (proportion of variance attributed to immigration = 63% for the more constrained formulation and real sample size) and in the wild populations, where the true number of immigrants was zero or near-zero (kestrel 19.1%–98.2%, sheep 4.2%– 36.1% and wolf 84.0%–99.2%). Although the estimation of the contribution of immigration in the simulation study became more accurate with increasing temporal variation and sample size, it was often not possible to distinguish between an accurate estimation from data with high temporal variation versus an overestimation from data with low temporal variation. Unrealistically, large sample sizes may be required to estimate the contribution of immigration well. 4. To minimize the risk of overestimating the contribution of immigration (or any additional parameter) in IPMs, we recommend to: (a) look for evidence of variation in immigration before investigating its contribution to population growth, (b) simulate and model data for comparison to the real data and (c) use explicit data on immigration when possible

Epilepsy: Asia versus Africa.

International audience: Is epilepsy truly an "African ailment"? We aimed to determine this, since international health agencies often refer to epilepsy as an African disease and the scientific literature has spoken the same tone. Various published materials, mainly reports, articles, were used to gather Asian and African evidence on various aspects of epilepsy and many of its risk and associated factors. Our results suggest that in no way can epilepsy be considered as an African ailment and such characterization is most likely based on popular beliefs rather than scientific evidence. In comparison to Africa, Asia has a 5.0% greater burden from all diseases, and is 17.0% more affected from neuropsychiatric disorders (that include epilepsy). Given that more countries in Asia are transitioning, there may be large demographic and lifestyle changes in the near future. However these changes are nowhere close to those expected in Africa. Moreover, 23 million Asians have epilepsy in comparison to 3.3 million Africans and 1.2 million sub-Saharan Africans. In comparison to Africa, Asia has more untreated patients, 55.0% more additional epilepsy cases every year, because of its larger population, with greater treatment cost and possibly higher premature mortality. Of several associated factors discussed herein, many have more importance for Asia than Africa. The current state of epilepsy in Asia is far less than ideal and there is an urgent need to recognize and accept the importance of epilepsy in Asia. In no way can epilepsy be considered as an African ailment. This is most likely based on popular beliefs rather than scientific evidence. A PowerPoint slide summarizing this article is available for download in the Supporting Information section here