A Model of Rapid Radicalization Behavior Using Agent-Based Modeling and Quorum Sensing

Understanding the dynamics of radicalization, especially rapid radicalization, has become increasingly important to US policy in the past several years. Traditionally, radicalization is considered a slow process, but recent social and political events demonstrate that the process can occur quickly. Examining this rapid process, in real time, is impossible. However, recreating an event using modeling and simulation (M&S) allows researchers to study some of the complex dynamics associated with rapid radicalization. We propose to adapt the biological mechanism of quorum sensing as a tool to explore, or possibly explain, rapid radicalization. Due to the complex nature of quorum sensing, M&S allows us to examine events that we could not otherwise examine in real time. For this study, we employ Agent Based Modeling (ABM), an M&S paradigm suited to modeling group behavior. The result of this study was the successful creation of rapid radicalization using quorum sensing. The Battle of Mogadishu was the inspiration for this model and provided the testing conditions used to explore quorum sensing and the ideas behind rapid radicalization. The final product has wider applicability however, using quorum sensing as a possible tool for examining other catalytic rapid radicalization events

The Grand Manifesto of Alexander I

Written following Napoleon’s final exile on the Island of St. Helena, The Grand Manifesto of Alexander I was simultaneously a work of royalist and national propaganda and of personal passion. From the French Revolution through Napoleon’s rule, in period of no more than thirty years, both the ideology of the sovereign monarch and the autonomous sovereignty of the European nations were profoundly threatened. In his manifesto, Alexander I protects his own throne both with both carrot and the stick of Christianity: he paints Napoleon as a dangerous monster and refers to his defeat as evidence that the Russians are God’s chosen people. But, he also warns that the Napoleonic wars were God’s punishment for their sins and that the Russian people must remain obedient subjects lest they provoke His anger again. At the end, he clearly states that the people are reliant on their rightful sovereign—God’s representative on Earth—for their entry to heaven: “But as from our Royal Majesty, inspired and elated by our great people; nothing is left but to constantly implore in our prayers for God’s benevolence for our people” (11). Alexander’s manifesto also directly warns the leaders of the other European powers to respect his autonomy. As with his people, he refers to Christianity as both a positive and negative motivator. He praises the steadfast unity of the European Alliance by comparing it to God’s “sun of peace and tranquility” (10). But he also stresses the might of the Russian military and the holy power behind it, noting that Russia defeated Napoleon at his height while no other country could stop him even when he had lesser power. In the end he emphatically states: “It will be honorable and glorious for us to show the world that though we desire to make no man tremble, no longer do we fear any man” (11). Ultimately, as sincere as Alexander the First’s piety was (and indeed it was intensely sincere), in this manifesto Christianity is a calculated weapon against both his people and his counterparts to protect his rule from the very real threats that shook the European aristocracy at the end of the eighteenth and the turn of the twentieth century. In addition to the question of religion, in order in deter any nostalgia that could undermine his authority, Alexander plays on the very raw and painful memory of the Napoleonic conquests. With highly dramatized prose, he illustrates the antithetical relationship in which he is the hero and Napoleon the villain. He is pious, brave, preoccupied with the welfare of his people: a rightfully born Emperor while Napoleon is an ungodly, cowardly destroyer of his people: a usurper. Each and every step of the story highlights that any attempt to disable the sovereign throne, to usurp, is the embodiment sin and sordidness. To honor and obey the throne is the embodiment of virtue and heroism. Although Alexander’s story is very consciously purposed it also profoundly emotional. He and Napoleon had a very personal antagonism and the wounds it left were a driving force behind the manifesto. Alexander took the throne only three years before Napoleon was crowned Emperor. In 1801 at the age of 24, Napoleon was eight years older than him and already legendary both as a villain for his role in the French Revolution and as a hero for his military and political prowess. Alexander carried this dual sentiment for Napoleon throughout their concurrent reigns. At the beginning of his career he actually reversed his father’s policies and openly admired France. With the murder of a familial connection to the Bourbon Dynasty (the Duc d’Eghien), his self-appointment to Consul for life, followed by his coronation as Emperor, Alexander pitted himself against Napoleon by forming the European Alliance of Russia, Austria and Prussia. After the European Alliance suffered heavy losses at Austerlitz, Jena, Eylau and Freidland, Napoleon lured the young Emperor into a Franco-Russian alliance by promising to divide the rule of all Europe with him. This alliance, solidified by the Treaty of Tilsit in 1808, Napoleon was obligated to cede his eastern-most territories (most importantly the Duchy of Warsaw) and restore their autonomy, but by 1810 Alexander saw that his only intention was to continue his own expansion. In addition Napoleon repeatedly toyed with Alexander, in one case demanding the hand of marriage of his younger sister. When this was refused Napoleon refused to ratify his and Alexander’s convention and formed an alliance with Austria by marring Princess Marie-Louise. Their relationship dissolved, and Alexander, having been deceived at least twice, was doubly embittered. When the harsh winters destroyed Napoleon’s army in his 1812 invasion of Russia and after second return to power in 1815 he was again defeated, Alexander felt more than the relief of defeating a long term threat. He felt the elation of defeating an intensely personal enemy—an enemy that had been an object of admiration and friendship. In this manifesto, when Alexander speaks of Napoleon’s duplicitous ways in treaties it is more than just propaganda, it is personal experience. The cinematic description is more than effect, it is emotion. The scarred relationship between the most might leaders of Europe speaks loud and clear. In reading through this document we see both an astute politician preempting any antagonistic action by his European counterparts as well rallying his people in the face of a very real threat: the loss of both national and personal sovereignty. We also see the deeply angry and prideful young Emperor of Russia reacting to the final overthrow of Napoleon, a worthy opponent who was alternately an idol and an enemy

Synthesis of Colloidal Mn2+:ZnO Quantum Dots and High-TC Ferromagnetic Nanocrystalline Thin Films

We report the synthesis of colloidal Mn2+-doped ZnO (Mn2+:ZnO) quantum dots and the preparation of room-temperature ferromagnetic nanocrystalline thin films. Mn2+:ZnO nanocrystals were prepared by a hydrolysis and condensation reaction in DMSO under atmospheric conditions. Synthesis was monitored by electronic absorption and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopies. Zn(OAc)2 was found to strongly inhibit oxidation of Mn2+ by O2, allowing the synthesis of Mn2+:ZnO to be performed aerobically. Mn2+ ions were removed from the surfaces of as-prepared nanocrystals using dodecylamine to yield high-quality internally doped Mn2+:ZnO colloids of nearly spherical shape and uniform diameter (6.1 +/- 0.7 nm). Simulations of the highly resolved X- and Q-band nanocrystal EPR spectra, combined with quantitative analysis of magnetic susceptibilities, confirmed that the manganese is substitutionally incorporated into the ZnO nanocrystals as Mn2+ with very homogeneous speciation, differing from bulk Mn2+:ZnO only in the magnitude of D-strain. Robust ferromagnetism was observed in spin-coated thin films of the nanocrystals, with 300 K saturation moments as large as 1.35 Bohr magneton/Mn2+ and TC > 350 K. A distinct ferromagnetic resonance signal was observed in the EPR spectra of the ferromagnetic films. The occurrence of ferromagnetism in Mn2+:ZnO and its dependence on synthetic variables are discussed in the context of these and previous theoretical and experimental results.Comment: To be published in the Journal of the American Chemical Society Web on July 14, 2004 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/ja048427j

Modern Warfare: An M and S Examination of the Dynamic Impact of Warlords and Insurgents on State Stability

9/11 changed the world as we knew it. Part of this change was to redirect the military of the United States away from focusing primarily on conventional conflict to a primary focus on unconventional or irregular conflict. This change required a tremendous learning effort by the military and their supporting research and development community. This learning effort included relearning of old but largely forgotten lessons as well as acquiring newly discovered knowledge. During the process of our immediate 9/11 response, we identified that we were engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan in an insurgency. Subsequently, our focus converged upon the description of insurgencies and the requirements for counterinsurgency. This paper argues that emerging conditions now allow the re-evaluation of the type of conflict occurring today and into the foreseeable future: that we, including the modeling and simulation world, emerge from a singular focus on orthodox insurgencies and start to consider the consequences and opportunities of the complexity of current conflicts. As an example of complexity, this paper will use the relatively common phenomenon of the Warlord or Warlordism. The paper will provide a definition of this phenomenon and then describe the implications for modelers. The paper will conclude by demonstrating the impact of incorporating this one rather prosaic complexity into an insurgency model, using agent based modeling (ABM)

Write-Avoiding Algorithms

Short version of the technical report available at http://www.eecs.berkeley.edu/Pubs/TechRpts/2015/EECS-2015-163.pdf as Technical Report No. UCB/EECS-2015-163International audienc

Design, navigation, and structure of a hypermedia application for the teaching–learning of pneumatic engineering design drawing

This article presents a hypermedia application used to study pneumatics that serves to support the lecturer in the lecture hall and as a self-study tool for the student. The reason behind the creation of this application is as follows: currently, there is no application in the market, which is equipped with a navigational system to guide the student through this subject matter, which has a system for self-assessment, and a system to identify those concepts that are of greatest interest or difficulty for the student. The proposed system monitors the time each user spends studying each section, as well as the dates on which each one was studied. Moreover, students are able to monitor their progress in learning the subject matter and identify those areas in which they have to improve. They are also able to simulate any pneumatic circuit in order to check its feasibility or detect any errors. The application has an open, modular structure, which enables changes to be made without its structure being affected. Use of the hypermedia application has supported the tutorial work of lecturers and reduced time spent elaborating on subject matter in the lecture hall, at the same time as facilitating its study

The inverse moment problem for convex polytopes

The goal of this paper is to present a general and novel approach for the reconstruction of any convex d-dimensional polytope P, from knowledge of its moments. In particular, we show that the vertices of an N-vertex polytope in R^d can be reconstructed from the knowledge of O(DN) axial moments (w.r.t. to an unknown polynomial measure od degree D) in d+1 distinct generic directions. Our approach is based on the collection of moment formulas due to Brion, Lawrence, Khovanskii-Pukhikov, and Barvinok that arise in the discrete geometry of polytopes, and what variously known as Prony's method, or Vandermonde factorization of finite rank Hankel matrices.Comment: LaTeX2e, 24 pages including 1 appendi

A survey of statistics in three UK general practice journal

Background Many medical specialities have reviewed the statistical content of their journals. To our knowledge this has not been done in general practice. Given the main role of a general practitioner as a diagnostician we thought it would be of interest to see whether the statistical methods reported reflect the diagnostic process. Methods Hand search of three UK journals of general practice namely the British Medical Journal (general practice section), British Journal of General Practice and Family Practice over a one-year period (1 January to 31 December 2000). Results A wide variety of statistical techniques were used. The most common methods included t-tests and Chi-squared tests. There were few articles reporting likelihood ratios and other useful diagnostic methods. There was evidence that the journals with the more thorough statistical review process reported a more complex and wider variety of statistical techniques. Conclusions The BMJ had a wider range and greater diversity of statistical methods than the other two journals. However, in all three journals there was a dearth of papers reflecting the diagnostic process. Across all three journals there were relatively few papers describing randomised controlled trials thus recognising the difficulty of implementing this design in general practice

Briefing: The role of human values in behavioural safety

Whilst behavioural based safety (BBS) is not new and is even becoming increasingly common, especially among large construction organisations; research on BBS and hence its implementation has paid limited attention to the role of innate drivers of behaviour, particularly human values (e.g. individual worker values). It is argued in this article that there is a need for empirical studies in this area towards the generation of fresh insight that could be valuable for designing more robust interventions for strengthening BBS programmes

Is perception of quality more important than technical quality in patient video cases?

Background: The use of video cases to demonstrate key signs and symptoms in patients (patient video cases or PVCs) is a rapidly expanding field. The aims of this study were to evaluate whether the technical quality, or judgement of quality, of a video clip influences a paediatrician's judgment on acuity of the case and assess the relationship between perception of quality and the technical quality of a selection of video clips. Methods: Participants (12 senior consultant paediatricians attending an examination workshop) individually categorised 28 PVCs into one of 3 possible acuities and then described the quality of the image seen. The PVCs had been converted into four different technical qualities (differing bit rates ranging from excellent to low quality). Results: Participants' assessment of quality and the actual industry standard of the PVC were independent (333 distinct observations, spearmans rho = 0.0410, p = 0.4564). Agreement between actual acuity and participants' judgement was generally good at higher acuities but moderate at medium/low acuities of illness (overall correlation 0.664). Perception of the quality of the clip was related to correct assignment of acuity regardless of the technical quality of the clip (number of obs = 330, z = 2.07, p = 0.038). Conclusions: It is important to benchmark PVCs prior to use in learning resources as experts may not agree on the information within, or quality of, the clip. It appears, although PVCs may be beneficial in a pedagogical context, the perception of quality of clip may be an important determinant of an expert's decision making. © 2015 Roland et al