Multivariate Nonparametric Estimation of the Pickands Dependence Function using Bernstein Polynomials

Many applications in risk analysis, especially in environmental sciences, require the estimation of the dependence among multivariate maxima. A way to do this is by inferring the Pickands dependence function of the underlying extreme-value copula. A nonparametric estimator is constructed as the sample equivalent of a multivariate extension of the madogram. Shape constraints on the family of Pickands dependence functions are taken into account by means of a representation in terms of a specific type of Bernstein polynomials. The large-sample theory of the estimator is developed and its finite-sample performance is evaluated with a simulation study. The approach is illustrated by analyzing clusters consisting of seven weather stations that have recorded weekly maxima of hourly rainfall in France from 1993 to 2011

Socioeconomic deprivation, urban-rural location and alcohol-related mortality in England and Wales

Background: Many causes of death are directly attributable to the toxic effects of alcohol and deaths from these causes are increasing in the United Kingdom. The aim of this study was to investigate variation in alcohol-related mortality in relation to socioeconomic deprivation, urban-rural location and age within a national context. Methods: An ecological study design was used with data from 8797 standard table wards in England and Wales. The methodology included using the Carstairs Index as a measure of socioeconomic deprivation at the small-area level and the national harmonised classification system for urban and rural areas in England and Wales. Alcohol-related mortality was defined using the National Statistics definition, devised for tracking national trends in alcohol-related deaths. Deaths from liver cirrhosis accounted for 85% of all deaths included in this definition. Deaths from 1999-2003 were examined and 2001 census ward population estimates were used as the denominators. Results: The analysis was based on 28,839 deaths. Alcohol-related mortality rates were higher in men and increased with increasing age, generally reaching peak levels in middle-aged adults. The 45-64 year age group contained a quarter of the total population but accounted for half of all alcohol-related deaths. There was a clear association between alcohol-related mortality and socioeconomic deprivation, with progressively higher rates in more deprived areas. The strength of the association varied with age. Greatest relative inequalities were seen amongst people aged 25-44 years, with relative risks of 4.73 (95% CI 4.00 to 5.59) and 4.24 (95% CI 3.50 to 5.13) for men and women respectively in the most relative to the least deprived quintiles. People living in urban areas experienced higher alcohol-related mortality relative to those living in rural areas, with differences remaining after adjustment for socioeconomic deprivation. Adjusted relative risks for urban relative to rural areas were 1.35 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.52) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.25) for men and women respectively. Conclusions: Large inequalities in alcohol-related mortality exist between sub-groups of the population in England and Wales. These should be considered when designing public health policies to reduce alcohol-related harm

The Osteopontin Level in Liver, Adipose Tissue and Serum Is Correlated with Fibrosis in Patients with Alcoholic Liver Disease

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Osteopontin (OPN) plays an important role in the progression of chronic liver diseases. We aimed to quantify the liver, adipose tissue and serum levels of OPN in heavy alcohol drinkers and to compare them with the histological severity of hepatic inflammation and fibrosis.</p> <h3>Methodology/Principal Findings</h3><p>OPN was evaluated in the serum of a retrospective and prospective group of 109 and 95 heavy alcohol drinkers, respectively, in the liver of 34 patients from the retrospective group, and in the liver and adipose tissue from an additional group of 38 heavy alcohol drinkers. Serum levels of OPN increased slightly with hepatic inflammation and progressively with the severity of hepatic fibrosis. Hepatic OPN expression correlated with hepatic inflammation, fibrosis, TGFβ expression, neutrophils accumulation and with the serum OPN level. Interestingly, adipose tissue OPN expression also correlated with hepatic fibrosis even after 7 days of alcohol abstinence. The elevated serum OPN level was an independent risk factor in estimating significant (F≥2) fibrosis in a model combining alkaline phosphatase, albumin, hemoglobin, OPN and FibroMeter® levels. OPN had an area under the receiving operator curve that estimated significant fibrosis of 0.89 and 0.88 in the retrospective and prospective groups, respectively. OPN, Hyaluronate (AUROC: 0.88), total Cytokeratin 18 (AUROC: 0.83) and FibroMeter® (AUROC: 0.90) estimated significance to the same extent in the retrospective group. Finally, the serum OPN levels also correlated with hepatic fibrosis and estimated significant (F≥2) fibrosis in 86 patients with chronic hepatitis C, which suggested that its elevated level could be a general response to chronic liver injury.</p> <h3>Conclusion/Significance</h3><p>OPN increased in the liver, adipose tissue and serum with liver fibrosis in alcoholic patients. Further, OPN is a new relevant biomarker for significant liver fibrosis. OPN could thus be an important actor in the pathogenesis of this chronic liver disease.</p> </div

Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from CMIP5 models

Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate, thus it is essential to characterise their potential future changes. Here we evalu- ate eight high-resolution Global Climate Model simulations in the twenti- eth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation ex- tremes for the 21st century. A significant intensification of daily extremes for all seasons is projected for the mid and high latitudes of both hemispheres at the end of the present century. For the subtropics and tropics, the lack of reliable and consistent estimations found for both the historical and fu- ture simulations might be connected with model deficiencies in the repre- sentation of organised convective systems. Low inter-model variability and good agreement with high-resolution regional observations are found for the twentieth century winter over the Northern Hemisphere mid and high lat- itudes

Phlegmonous colitis: another source of sepsis in cirrhotic patients?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The clinical relevance of phlegmonous colitis (PC), a rare autopsy finding in cirrhotic patients, is poorly documented. We postulated that PC might be a source of sepsis in patients with portal hypertensive colopathy (PHC).</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report three cirrhotic patients who were admitted with abdominal sepsis and who illustrate, to various degrees, the clinico-pathological sequence of colonic alterations associated with portal hypertension. Two cirrhotic patients with PHC developed gram-negative bacteraemia and quickly responded to intravenous antibiotics. Another cirrhotic patient underwent emergency colectomy for PC, and subsequently died from multiple organ failure. Histological alterations in the operative specimen included: a) mucosal ulcerations; b) disseminated micro-abscesses in the submucosa; and c) a severe vasculopathy leading to complete obliteration of submucosal blood vessels.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These data suggest that cirrhotic patients with PHC may progress towards PC, which, in turn, may be the cause for life-threatening sepsis.</p

All-cause and liver-related mortality risk factors in excessive drinkers: Analysis of data from the UK biobank

Background: High alcohol intake is associated with increased mortality. We aimed to identify factors affecting mortality in people drinking extreme amounts of alcohol. Methods: We obtained information from the UK Biobank on approximately 500,000 participants aged 40–70 years at baseline assessment in 2006–2010. Habitual alcohol intake, lifestyle and physiological data, laboratory test results, and hospital diagnoses and death certificate data (to June 2020) for 5136 men (2.20% of male participants) and 1504 women (0.60%) who reported consuming ≥80 or ≥50 g/day, respectively, were used in survival analysis. Results: Mortality hazard ratios for these excessive drinkers, compared to all other participants, were 2.02 (95% CI 1.89–2.17) for all causes, 1.89 (1.69–2.12) for any cancer, 1.87 (1.61–2.17) for any circulatory disease, and 9.40 (7.00–12.64) for any liver disease. Liver disease diagnosis or abnormal liver function tests predicted not only deaths attributed to liver disease but also those from cancers or circulatory diseases. Mortality among excessive drinkers was also associated with quantitative alcohol intake; diagnosed alcohol dependence, harmful use, or withdrawal syndrome; and current smoking at assessment. Conclusions: People with chronic excessive alcohol intake experience decreased average survival, but there is substantial variation in their mortality, with liver abnormality and alcohol dependence or other alcohol use disorders associated with a worse prognosis. Clinically, patients with these risk factors and high alcohol intake should be considered for early or intensive management. Research can usefully focus on the factors predisposing to dependence or liver abnormality

Comparison of accuracy of fibrosis degree classifications by liver biopsy and non-invasive tests in chronic hepatitis C

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Non-invasive tests have been constructed and evaluated mainly for binary diagnoses such as significant fibrosis. Recently, detailed fibrosis classifications for several non-invasive tests have been developed, but their accuracy has not been thoroughly evaluated in comparison to liver biopsy, especially in clinical practice and for Fibroscan. Therefore, the main aim of the present study was to evaluate the accuracy of detailed fibrosis classifications available for non-invasive tests and liver biopsy. The secondary aim was to validate these accuracies in independent populations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Four HCV populations provided 2,068 patients with liver biopsy, four different pathologist skill-levels and non-invasive tests. Results were expressed as percentages of correctly classified patients.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In population #1 including 205 patients and comparing liver biopsy (reference: consensus reading by two experts) and blood tests, Metavir fibrosis (F_M) stage accuracy was 64.4% in local pathologists vs. 82.2% (p < 10^-3) in single expert pathologist. Significant discrepancy (≥ 2F_Mvs reference histological result) rates were: Fibrotest: 17.2%, FibroMeter^2G: 5.6%, local pathologists: 4.9%, FibroMeter^3G: 0.5%, expert pathologist: 0% (p < 10^-3). In population #2 including 1,056 patients and comparing blood tests, the discrepancy scores, taking into account the error magnitude, of detailed fibrosis classification were significantly different between FibroMeter^2G(0.30 ± 0.55) and FibroMeter^3G(0.14 ± 0.37, p < 10^-3) or Fibrotest (0.84 ± 0.80, p < 10^-3). In population #3 (and #4) including 458 (359) patients and comparing blood tests and Fibroscan, accuracies of detailed fibrosis classification were, respectively: Fibrotest: 42.5% (33.5%), Fibroscan: 64.9% (50.7%), FibroMeter^2G: 68.7% (68.2%), FibroMeter^3G: 77.1% (83.4%), p < 10^-3(p < 10^-3). Significant discrepancy (≥ 2 F_M) rates were, respectively: Fibrotest: 21.3% (22.2%), Fibroscan: 12.9% (12.3%), FibroMeter^2G: 5.7% (6.0%), FibroMeter^3G: 0.9% (0.9%), p < 10^-3(p < 10^-3).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The accuracy in detailed fibrosis classification of the best-performing blood test outperforms liver biopsy read by a local pathologist, i.e., in clinical practice; however, the classification precision is apparently lesser. This detailed classification accuracy is much lower than that of significant fibrosis with Fibroscan and even Fibrotest but higher with FibroMeter^3G. FibroMeter classification accuracy was significantly higher than those of other non-invasive tests. Finally, for hepatitis C evaluation in clinical practice, fibrosis degree can be evaluated using an accurate blood test.</p

Serum metabolomic profiling in acute alcoholic hepatitis identifies multiple dysregulated pathways

Background and Objectives While animal studies have implicated derangements of global energy homeostasis in the pathogenesis of acute alcoholic hepatitis (AAH), the relevance of these findings to the development of human AAH remains unclear. Using global, unbiased serum metabolomics analysis, we sought to characterize alterations in metabolic pathways associated with severe AAH and identify potential biomarkers for disease prognosis. Methods This prospective, case-control study design included 25 patients with severe AAH and 25 ambulatory patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Serum samples were collected within 24 hours of the index clinical encounter. Global, unbiased metabolomics profiling was performed. Patients were followed for 180 days after enrollment to determine survival. Results Levels of 234 biochemicals were altered in subjects with severe AAH. Random-forest analysis, principal component analysis, and integrated hierarchical clustering methods demonstrated that metabolomics profiles separated the two cohorts with 100% accuracy. Severe AAH was associated with enhanced triglyceride lipolysis, impaired mitochondrial fatty acid beta oxidation, and upregulated omega oxidation. Low levels of multiple lysolipids and related metabolites suggested decreased plasma membrane remodeling in severe AAH. While most measured bile acids were increased in severe AAH, low deoxycholate and glycodeoxycholate levels indicated intestinal dysbiosis. Several changes in substrate utilization for energy homeostasis were identified in severe AAH, including increased glucose consumption by the pentose phosphate pathway, altered tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle activity, and enhanced peptide catabolism. Finally, altered levels of small molecules related to glutathione metabolism and antioxidant vitamin depletion were observed in patients with severe AAH. Univariable logistic regression revealed 15 metabolites associated with 180-day survival in severe AAH. Conclusion Severe AAH is characterized by a distinct metabolic phenotype spanning multiple pathways. Metabolomics profiling revealed a panel of biomarkers for disease prognosis, and future studies are planned to validate these findings in larger cohorts of patients with severe AAH.This study was funded by Grant 5K08AA017622 from the National Institutes of Health and a University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Pilot Grant to JB. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Noninvasive Markers of Hepatic Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis B

A serum biomarker (FibroTest; Biopredictive, Paris, France; FibroSure; LabCorp, Burlington, USA) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by Fibroscan (Echosens, Paris, France) have been extensively validated in chronic hepatitis C. This review updates the clinical validation of serum biomarkers and LSM in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). One meta-analysis combined all published studies and another used a database combining FibroTest individual data. Sensitivity analysis assessed the impact of several factors, including authors’ independence, length of biopsy, ethnicity, hepatitis B early antigen status, viral load, and alanine aminotransferase value. Only two biomarkers had several validations: FibroTest (8 studies, 1,842 patients), and Fibroscan (5 studies, 618 patients). For the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis, the standardized area under the receiver operating curve was 0.84 (0.79–0.86) for FibroTest and 0.89 (0.83–0.96) for LSM, without significant difference. No significant factors of variability were identified for FibroTest’s performance. In conclusion, FibroTest and LSM were the most validated biomarkers of fibrosis in CHB. However, the reliability of Fibroscan must be better assessed