Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from CMIP5 models

Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate, thus it is essential to characterise their potential future changes. Here we evalu- ate eight high-resolution Global Climate Model simulations in the twenti- eth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation ex- tremes for the 21st century. A significant intensification of daily extremes for all seasons is projected for the mid and high latitudes of both hemispheres at the end of the present century. For the subtropics and tropics, the lack of reliable and consistent estimations found for both the historical and fu- ture simulations might be connected with model deficiencies in the repre- sentation of organised convective systems. Low inter-model variability and good agreement with high-resolution regional observations are found for the twentieth century winter over the Northern Hemisphere mid and high lat- itudes

Socioeconomic deprivation, urban-rural location and alcohol-related mortality in England and Wales

Background: Many causes of death are directly attributable to the toxic effects of alcohol and deaths from these causes are increasing in the United Kingdom. The aim of this study was to investigate variation in alcohol-related mortality in relation to socioeconomic deprivation, urban-rural location and age within a national context. Methods: An ecological study design was used with data from 8797 standard table wards in England and Wales. The methodology included using the Carstairs Index as a measure of socioeconomic deprivation at the small-area level and the national harmonised classification system for urban and rural areas in England and Wales. Alcohol-related mortality was defined using the National Statistics definition, devised for tracking national trends in alcohol-related deaths. Deaths from liver cirrhosis accounted for 85% of all deaths included in this definition. Deaths from 1999-2003 were examined and 2001 census ward population estimates were used as the denominators. Results: The analysis was based on 28,839 deaths. Alcohol-related mortality rates were higher in men and increased with increasing age, generally reaching peak levels in middle-aged adults. The 45-64 year age group contained a quarter of the total population but accounted for half of all alcohol-related deaths. There was a clear association between alcohol-related mortality and socioeconomic deprivation, with progressively higher rates in more deprived areas. The strength of the association varied with age. Greatest relative inequalities were seen amongst people aged 25-44 years, with relative risks of 4.73 (95% CI 4.00 to 5.59) and 4.24 (95% CI 3.50 to 5.13) for men and women respectively in the most relative to the least deprived quintiles. People living in urban areas experienced higher alcohol-related mortality relative to those living in rural areas, with differences remaining after adjustment for socioeconomic deprivation. Adjusted relative risks for urban relative to rural areas were 1.35 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.52) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.25) for men and women respectively. Conclusions: Large inequalities in alcohol-related mortality exist between sub-groups of the population in England and Wales. These should be considered when designing public health policies to reduce alcohol-related harm

The Osteopontin Level in Liver, Adipose Tissue and Serum Is Correlated with Fibrosis in Patients with Alcoholic Liver Disease

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Osteopontin (OPN) plays an important role in the progression of chronic liver diseases. We aimed to quantify the liver, adipose tissue and serum levels of OPN in heavy alcohol drinkers and to compare them with the histological severity of hepatic inflammation and fibrosis.</p> <h3>Methodology/Principal Findings</h3><p>OPN was evaluated in the serum of a retrospective and prospective group of 109 and 95 heavy alcohol drinkers, respectively, in the liver of 34 patients from the retrospective group, and in the liver and adipose tissue from an additional group of 38 heavy alcohol drinkers. Serum levels of OPN increased slightly with hepatic inflammation and progressively with the severity of hepatic fibrosis. Hepatic OPN expression correlated with hepatic inflammation, fibrosis, TGFβ expression, neutrophils accumulation and with the serum OPN level. Interestingly, adipose tissue OPN expression also correlated with hepatic fibrosis even after 7 days of alcohol abstinence. The elevated serum OPN level was an independent risk factor in estimating significant (F≥2) fibrosis in a model combining alkaline phosphatase, albumin, hemoglobin, OPN and FibroMeter® levels. OPN had an area under the receiving operator curve that estimated significant fibrosis of 0.89 and 0.88 in the retrospective and prospective groups, respectively. OPN, Hyaluronate (AUROC: 0.88), total Cytokeratin 18 (AUROC: 0.83) and FibroMeter® (AUROC: 0.90) estimated significance to the same extent in the retrospective group. Finally, the serum OPN levels also correlated with hepatic fibrosis and estimated significant (F≥2) fibrosis in 86 patients with chronic hepatitis C, which suggested that its elevated level could be a general response to chronic liver injury.</p> <h3>Conclusion/Significance</h3><p>OPN increased in the liver, adipose tissue and serum with liver fibrosis in alcoholic patients. Further, OPN is a new relevant biomarker for significant liver fibrosis. OPN could thus be an important actor in the pathogenesis of this chronic liver disease.</p> </div

DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events

A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay‐coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay‐coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time step. Numerical experiments with a low‐order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an unoptimized formulation of the delay‐nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on heuristic arguments and is confirmed by the numerical results, providing a guideline for the practical implementation of the algorithm. Delay‐coordinate nudging preserves the easiness of implementation, the intuitive functioning and the reduced computational cost of the standard nudging, making it a potential alternative especially in the field of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions with large Earth system models that limit the use of more sophisticated data assimilation procedures

Serum metabolomic profiling in acute alcoholic hepatitis identifies multiple dysregulated pathways

Background and Objectives While animal studies have implicated derangements of global energy homeostasis in the pathogenesis of acute alcoholic hepatitis (AAH), the relevance of these findings to the development of human AAH remains unclear. Using global, unbiased serum metabolomics analysis, we sought to characterize alterations in metabolic pathways associated with severe AAH and identify potential biomarkers for disease prognosis. Methods This prospective, case-control study design included 25 patients with severe AAH and 25 ambulatory patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Serum samples were collected within 24 hours of the index clinical encounter. Global, unbiased metabolomics profiling was performed. Patients were followed for 180 days after enrollment to determine survival. Results Levels of 234 biochemicals were altered in subjects with severe AAH. Random-forest analysis, principal component analysis, and integrated hierarchical clustering methods demonstrated that metabolomics profiles separated the two cohorts with 100% accuracy. Severe AAH was associated with enhanced triglyceride lipolysis, impaired mitochondrial fatty acid beta oxidation, and upregulated omega oxidation. Low levels of multiple lysolipids and related metabolites suggested decreased plasma membrane remodeling in severe AAH. While most measured bile acids were increased in severe AAH, low deoxycholate and glycodeoxycholate levels indicated intestinal dysbiosis. Several changes in substrate utilization for energy homeostasis were identified in severe AAH, including increased glucose consumption by the pentose phosphate pathway, altered tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle activity, and enhanced peptide catabolism. Finally, altered levels of small molecules related to glutathione metabolism and antioxidant vitamin depletion were observed in patients with severe AAH. Univariable logistic regression revealed 15 metabolites associated with 180-day survival in severe AAH. Conclusion Severe AAH is characterized by a distinct metabolic phenotype spanning multiple pathways. Metabolomics profiling revealed a panel of biomarkers for disease prognosis, and future studies are planned to validate these findings in larger cohorts of patients with severe AAH.This study was funded by Grant 5K08AA017622 from the National Institutes of Health and a University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Pilot Grant to JB. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

All-cause and liver-related mortality risk factors in excessive drinkers: Analysis of data from the UK biobank

Background: High alcohol intake is associated with increased mortality. We aimed to identify factors affecting mortality in people drinking extreme amounts of alcohol. Methods: We obtained information from the UK Biobank on approximately 500,000 participants aged 40–70 years at baseline assessment in 2006–2010. Habitual alcohol intake, lifestyle and physiological data, laboratory test results, and hospital diagnoses and death certificate data (to June 2020) for 5136 men (2.20% of male participants) and 1504 women (0.60%) who reported consuming ≥80 or ≥50 g/day, respectively, were used in survival analysis. Results: Mortality hazard ratios for these excessive drinkers, compared to all other participants, were 2.02 (95% CI 1.89–2.17) for all causes, 1.89 (1.69–2.12) for any cancer, 1.87 (1.61–2.17) for any circulatory disease, and 9.40 (7.00–12.64) for any liver disease. Liver disease diagnosis or abnormal liver function tests predicted not only deaths attributed to liver disease but also those from cancers or circulatory diseases. Mortality among excessive drinkers was also associated with quantitative alcohol intake; diagnosed alcohol dependence, harmful use, or withdrawal syndrome; and current smoking at assessment. Conclusions: People with chronic excessive alcohol intake experience decreased average survival, but there is substantial variation in their mortality, with liver abnormality and alcohol dependence or other alcohol use disorders associated with a worse prognosis. Clinically, patients with these risk factors and high alcohol intake should be considered for early or intensive management. Research can usefully focus on the factors predisposing to dependence or liver abnormality

Diagnostic value of biochemical markers (FibroTest-FibroSURE) for the prediction of liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND: Liver biopsy is considered as the gold standard for assessing non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) histologic lesions. The aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic utility of non-invasive markers of fibrosis, validated in chronic viral hepatitis and alcoholic liver disease (FibroTest, FT), in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: 170 patients with suspected NAFLD were prospectively included in a reference center (Group 1), 97 in a multicenter study (Group 2) and 954 blood donors as controls. Fibrosis was assessed on a 5 stage histological scale validated by Kleiner et al from F0 = none, F1 = perisinusoidal or periportal, F2 = perisinusoidal and portal/periportal, F3 = bridging and F4 = cirrhosis. Histology and the biochemical measurements were blinded to any other characteristics. The area under the ROC curves (AUROC), sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were assessed. RESULTS: In both groups FT has elevated and not different AUROCs for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (F2F3F4): 0.86 (95%CI 0.77–0.91) versus 0.75 (95%CI 0.61–0.83; P = 0.10), and for F3F4: 0.92 (95%CI 0.83–0.96) versus 0.81 (95%CI 0.64–0.91; P = 0.12) in Group1 and Group 2 respectively. When the 2 groups were pooled together a FT cutoff of 0.30 had a 90% NPV for advanced fibrosis (Se 77%); a FT cutoff of 0.70 had a 73% PPV for advanced fibrosis (Sp 98%). CONCLUSION: In patients with NAFLD, FibroTest, a simple and non-invasive quantitative estimate of liver fibrosis reliably predicts advanced fibrosis

Diagnostic value of biochemical markers (NashTest) for the prediction of non alcoholo steato hepatitis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND: Liver biopsy is considered the gold standard for assessing histologic lesions of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The aim was to develop and validate a new biomarker of non alcoholic steato hepatitis (NASH) the NashTest (NT) in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: 160 patients with NAFLD were prospectively included in a training group, 97 were included in a multicenter validation group and 383 controls. Histological diagnoses used Kleiner et al's scoring system, with 3 classes for NASH: "Not NASH", "Borderline", "NASH"). The area under the ROC curves (AUROC), sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), and positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were assessed. RESULTS: NT was developed using patented algorithms combining 13 parameters: age, sex, height, weight, and serum levels of triglycerides, cholesterol, alpha2macroglobulin, apolipoprotein A1, haptoglobin, gamma-glutamyl-transpeptidase, transaminases ALT, AST, and total bilirubin. AUROCs of NT for the diagnosis of NASH in the training and validation groups were, respectively, 0.79 (95%CI 0.69–0.86) and 0.79 (95%CI 0.67–0.87; P = 0.94); for the diagnosis of borderline NASH they were: 0.69 (95%CI 0.60–0.77) and 0.69 (95%CI 0.57–0.78; P = 0.98) and for the diagnosis of no NASH, 0.77 (95%CI 0.68–0.84) and 0.83 (95%CI 0.67–0.90; P = 0.34). When the two groups were pooled together the NashTest Sp for NASH = 94% (PPV = 66%), and Se = 33% (NPV = 81%); for borderline NASH or NASH Sp = 50% (PPV = 74%) and Se = 88% (NPV = 72%). CONCLUSION: In patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, NashTest, a simple and non-invasive biomarker reliably predicts the presence or absence of NASH

Diagnostic performance of FibroTest, SteatoTest and ActiTest in patients with NAFLD using the SAF score as histological reference

BACKGROUND: Blood tests of liver injury are less well validated in non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) than in patients with chronic viral hepatitis. AIMS: To improve the validation of three blood tests used in NAFLD patients, FibroTest for fibrosis staging, SteatoTest for steatosis grading and ActiTest for inflammation activity grading. METHODS: We pre‐included new NAFLD patients with biopsy and blood tests from a single‐centre cohort (FibroFrance) and from the multicentre FLIP consortium. Contemporaneous biopsies were blindly assessed using the new steatosis, activity and fibrosis (SAF) score, which provides a reliable and reproducible diagnosis and grading/staging of the three elementary features of NAFLD (steatosis, inflammatory activity) and fibrosis with reduced interobserver variability. We used nonbinary‐ROC (NonBinAUROC) as the main endpoint to prevent spectrum effect and multiple testing. RESULTS: A total of 600 patients with reliable tests and biopsies were included. The mean NonBinAUROCs (95% CI) of tests were all significant (P < 0.0001): 0.878 (0.864–0.892) for FibroTest and fibrosis stages, 0.846 (0.830–0.862) for ActiTest and activity grades, and 0.822 (0.804–0.840) for SteatoTest and steatosis grades. FibroTest had a higher NonBinAUROC than BARD (0.836; 0.820–0.852; P = 0.0001), FIB4 (0.845; 0.829–0.861; P = 0.007) but not significantly different than the NAFLD score (0.866; 0.850–0.882; P = 0.26). FibroTest had a significant difference in median values between adjacent stage F2 and stage F1 contrarily to BARD, FIB4 and NAFLD scores (Bonferroni test P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NAFLD, SteatoTest, ActiTest and FibroTest are non‐invasive tests that offer an alternative to biopsy, and they correlate with the simple grading/staging of the SAF scoring system across the three elementary features of NAFLD: steatosis, inflammatory activity and fibrosis