Centennial climate variability in the British Isles during the mid-late Holocene

Reproduced with permission of the publisher. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier LtdMulti-millennial climate changes were relatively minor over the mid–late Holocene in the British Isles, because orbitally forced insolation changes were smaller than those at higher latitudes. Centennial climate variability is thus likely to have exerted a greater influence on the environment and human society of the region. Proxy-climate records from the British Isles covering the last 4500 years are assembled and re-evaluated with the aim of identifying centennial climate variability reflected by multi-proxy indicators. The proxies include bog oak populations, peatland surface wetness, flooding episodes from fluvial deposits, speleothem annual band width and oxygen isotopes, chironomids from lake sediments and sand and dune deposition. Most proxies reflect water balance rather than temperature alone, and records predominantly reflect warm season climate. A series of 12 key periods of enhanced precipitation–evaporation (P-E) are identified by their presence in two or more proxy records. Variability in P-E is much greater than that shown by temperature proxies and there is no necessary association between warm/cool and dry/wet periods. Although the data for temperature are less robust than those for P-E, a series of key temperature changes are proposed based on speleothem δ18O and chironomid inferred July temperature records; relatively cool before c. 3100 years BP, warmer (3100–2000 years BP), cool (2000–1250 cal years BP), warm (1250–650 cal years BP), and cool (650 cal years BP onwards). Some key increases in P-E (2750, 1650, 550 cal years BP) show a strong correspondence with ‘Bond cycles’ in ocean proxy records for increased ice rafted debris, decreased summer sea surface temperatures and sometimes decreased North Atlantic deep water circulation. Other higher frequency changes in P-E are also strongly related to SST variability. Whilst some of the main changes to cooler SSTs and increased P-E are approximately coincident with reduced solar output, most are not and thus must be the result of the internal dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere. Future work should concentrate on firmly establishing the pattern of temperature change, improving chronological accuracy and precision in existing records and improving process-based understanding of proxies

Toward a Quantitative Estimate of Future Heat Wave Mortality under Global Climate Change

Background: Climate change is anticipated to affect human health by changing the distribution of known risk factors. Heat waves have had debilitating effects on human mortality, and global climate models predict an increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves. The extent to which climate change will harm human health through changes in the distribution of heat waves and the sources of uncertainty in estimating these effects have not been studied extensively. Objectives: We estimated the future excess mortality attributable to heat waves under global climate change for a major U.S. city. Methods: We used a database comprising daily data from 1987 through 2005 on mortality from all nonaccidental causes, ambient levels of particulate matter and ozone, temperature, and dew point temperature for the city of Chicago, Illinois. We estimated the associations between heat waves and mortality in Chicago using Poisson regression models. Results: Under three different climate change scenarios for 2081–2100 and in the absence of adaptation, the city of Chicago could experience between 166 and 2,217 excess deaths per year attributable to heat waves, based on estimates from seven global climate models. We noted considerable variability in the projections of annual heat wave mortality; the largest source of variation was the choice of climate model. Conclusions: The impact of future heat waves on human health will likely be profound, and significant gains can be expected by lowering future carbon dioxide emissions

Cancer Incidence among Former Love Canal Residents

Ba c k g r o u n d: The Love Canal was a rectangular 16-acre, 10-ft-deep chemical waste landfill situated in a residential neighborhood in Niagara Falls, New York. This seriously contaminated site came to public attention in 1978. Only one prior study examined cancer incidence in former residents of the Love Canal neighborhood (LC). Objective: In this study we aimed to describe cancer incidence in former LC residents from 1979 to 1996 and to investigate whether it differs from that of New York State (NYS) and Niagara County (NC). Me t h o d s: From 1978 to 1982, we interviewed 6,181 former residents, and 5,052 were eligible to be included in this study. In 1996, we identified 304 cancer diagnoses in this cohort using the NYS Cancer Registry. We compared LC cancer incidence with that of NYS and NC using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and we compared risks within the LC group by potential exposure to the landfill using survival analysis. Res u l t s: SIRs were elevated for cancers of the bladder [SIR NYS = 1.44; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.91–2.16] and kidney (SIR NYS = 1.48; 95 % CI, 0.76–2.58). Although CIs included 1.00, other studies have linked these cancers to chemicals similar to those found at Love Canal. We also found higher rates of bladder cancer among residents exposed as children, based on two cases. Co n c l u s i o n s: In explaining these excess risks, the role of exposure to the landfill is unclear given such limitations as a relatively small and incomplete study cohort, imprecise exposure measurements, and the exclusion of cancers diagnosed before 1979. Given the relatively young age of the cohort, further surveillance is warranted. Key w o r d s: cancer, community health, exposure assessment, hazardous waste sites, Love Canal. Environ Health Perspect 117:1265–1271 (2009). doi:10.1289/ehp.0800153 available vi

Sensitivity of L-band vegetation optical depth to carbon stocks in tropical forests: a comparison to higher frequencies and optical indices

Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.111303.Monitoring vegetation carbon in tropical regions is essential to the global carbon assessment and to evaluate the actions oriented to the reduction of forest degradation. Mainly, satellite optical vegetation indices and LiDAR data have been used to this purpose. These two techniques are limited by cloud cover and are sensitive only to the top of vegetation. In addition, the vegetation attenuation to the soil microwave emission, represented by the vegetation optical depth (VOD), has been applied for biomass estimation using frequencies ranging from 4 to 30¿GHz (C- to K-bands). Atmosphere is transparent to microwaves and their sensitivity to canopy layers depends on the frequency, with lower frequencies having greater penetration depths. In this regard, L-band VOD (1.4¿GHz) is expected to enhance the ability to estimate carbon stocks. This study compares the sensitivity of different VOD products (from L, C, and X-bands) and an optical vegetation index (EVI) to the above-ground carbon density (ACD). It quantifies the contribution of ACD and forest cover proportion to the VOD/EVI signals. The study is conducted in Peru, southern Colombia and Panama, where ACD maps have been derived from airborne LiDAR. Results confirm the enhanced sensitivity of L-band VOD to ACD when compared to higher frequency bands, and show that the sensitivity of all VOD bands decreases in the densest forests. ACD explains 34% and forest cover 30% of L-band VOD variance, and these proportions gradually decrease for EVI, C-, and X-band VOD, respectively. Results are consistent through different categories of altitude and carbon density. This pattern is found in most of the studied regions and in flooded forests. Results also show that C-, X-band VOD and EVI provide complementary information to L-band VOD, especially in flooded forests and in mountains, indicating that synergistic approaches could lead to improved retrievals in these regions. Although the assessment of vegetation carbon in the densest forests requires further research, results from this study support the use of new L-band VOD estimates for mapping the carbon of tropical forests.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft