Text-Mining in Streams of Textual Data Using Time Series Applied to Stock Market

Each day, a lot of text data is generated. This data comes from various sources and may contain valuable information. In this article, we use text mining methods to discover if there is a connection between news articles and changes of the S&P 500 stock index. The index values and documents were divided into time windows according to the direction of the index value changes. We achieved a classification accuracy of 65-74 %.O

Forecasting movements of health-care stock prices based on different categories of news articles using multiple kernel learning

—The market state changes when a new piece of information arrives. It affects decisions made by investors and is considered to be an important data source that can be used for financial forecasting. Recently information derived from news articles has become a part of financial predictive systems. The usage of news articles and their forecasting potential have been extensively researched. However, so far no attempts have been made to utilise different categories of news articles simultaneously. This paper studies how the concurrent, and appropriately weighted, usage of news articles, having different degrees of relevance to the target stock, can improve the performance of financial forecasting and support the decision-making process of investors and traders. Stock price movements are predicted using the multiple kernel learning technique which integrates information extracted from multiple news categories while separate kernels are utilised to analyse each category. News articles are partitioned according to their relevance to the target stock, its sub industry, industry, group industry and sector. The experiments are run on stocks from the Health Care sector and show that increasing the number of relevant news categories used as data sources for financial forecasting improves the performance of the predictive system in comparison with approaches based on a lower number of categories

Predictive Analysis on Twitter: Techniques and Applications

Predictive analysis of social media data has attracted considerable attention from the research community as well as the business world because of the essential and actionable information it can provide. Over the years, extensive experimentation and analysis for insights have been carried out using Twitter data in various domains such as healthcare, public health, politics, social sciences, and demographics. In this chapter, we discuss techniques, approaches and state-of-the-art applications of predictive analysis of Twitter data. Specifically, we present fine-grained analysis involving aspects such as sentiment, emotion, and the use of domain knowledge in the coarse-grained analysis of Twitter data for making decisions and taking actions, and relate a few success stories

An extreme firm-specific news sentiment asymmetry based trading strategy

News sentiment has been empirically observed to have impact on financial market returns. In this study, we investigate firm-specific news from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics data from 2003 to 2014 and propose an optimal trading strategy based on a sentiment shock score and a sentiment trend score which measure extreme positive and negative sentiment levels for individual stocks. The intuition behind this approach is that the impact of events that generate extreme investor sentiment changes tends to have long and lasting effects to market movement and hence provides better prediction to market returns. We document that there exists an optimal signal region for both indicators. And we also show extreme positive sentiment provides better a signal than extreme negative sentiment, which presents an asymmetric market behavior in terms of news sentiment impact. The back test results show that extreme positive sentiment generates robust and superior trading signals in all market conditions, and its risk-adjusted returns significantly outperform the S&P 500 index over the same time period

Twitter permeability to financial events: an experiment towards a model for sensing irregularities

There is a general consensus of the good sensing and novelty character- istics of Twitter as an information media for the complex fi nancial market. This paper investigates the permeability of Twitter sphere, the total universe of Twitter users and their habits, towards relevant events in the financial market. Analysis shows that a general purpose social media is permeable to fi nancial-specifi c events and establishes Twitter as a relevant feeder for taking decisions regarding the fi nancial market and event fraudulent activities in that market. However, the provenance of contributions, their diferent levels of credibility and quality and even the purpose or intention behind them should to be considered and carefully contemplated if Twitter is used as a single source for decision taking. With the overall aim of this research, to deploy an architecture for real-time monitoring of irregularities in the financial market, this paper conducts a series of experiments on the level of permeability and the permeable features of Twitter in the event of one of these irregularities. To be precise, Twitter data is collected concerning an event comprising of a specifi c financial action on the 27th January 2017: the announcement about the merge of two companies Tesco PLC and Booker Group PLC, listed in the main market of the London Stock Exchange (LSE), to create the UK's Leading Food Business. The experiment attempts to answer two research questions which aim to characterize the features of Twitter permeability to the fi nancial market. The experimental results con rm that a far-impacting financial event, such as the merger considered, caused apparent disturbances in all the features considered, that is, information volume, content and sentiment as well as geographical provenance. Analysis shows that despite, Twitter not being a specifi c fi nancial forum, it is permeable to financial events

A multi-layer dimension reduction algorithm for text mining of news in forex / Arman Khadjeh Nassirtoussi

Information Explosion has caused the demand for customized text-mining in every imaginable area to sky-rocket. Text mining is needed in many areas, a few of which are: search engine development, spam-filtering and text-summarization. Every context requires its own customized text mining algorithms in order to achieve best results. The specific context of this research is market prediction for the foreign exchange market. The objective is to utilize news-headlines to predict market-movements 1 to 3 hours after news release. The literature on recent research efforts in behavioral economics confirms that investors’ aggregate behavioral reactions to information released in the news can drive prices up or down. This theoretical basis constitutes the economic foundation of this investigation. After economic comprehension of the problem at hand; available systems in the literature which operate in a comparable context are reviewed. The major finding of this review is that context-specific text mining algorithms are lacking. The main underlying text-mining challenge that seems to deserve immediate attention is the sparse and high dimensional nature of the feature-space. Therefore, this work produces a multi-layer dimension reduction algorithm to respond to this need. The algorithm tackles a different root cause of the problem at each layer. The first layer is termed the Semantic Abstraction Layer and addresses the problem of co-reference in text mining that is contributing to sparsity. Co-reference occurs when two or more words in a text corpus refer to the same concept. This work produces a custom approach by the name of Heuristic-Hypernyms Modeling which creates a way to recognize words with the same parent-word to be regarded as one entity. As a result, prediction accuracy increases significantly at this layer which is attributed to appropriate noise-reduction from the feature-space. The second layer is termed Sentiment Integration Layer, which integrates sentiment analysis capability into the algorithm by proposing a sentiment weight by the name of SumScore that reflects investors’ sentiment. This layer reduces the dimensions by eliminating those that are of zero value in terms of sentiment and thereby improves prediction accuracy. The third layer encompasses a dynamic model creation algorithm, termed Synchronous Targeted Feature Reduction (STFR). It is suitable for the challenge at hand whereby the mining of a stream of text is concerned. It updates the models with the most recent information available and, more importantly, it ensures that the dimensions are reduced to a number that is many times smaller. The algorithm and each of its layers are extensively evaluated using real market data and news content across multiple years and have proven to be solid and superior to any other comparable solution. On top of a well-rounded multifaceted algorithm, this work contributes a much needed research framework for this context with a test-bed of data that must make future research endeavors more convenient. The produced algorithm is scalable and its modular design allows improvement in each of its layers in future research