Analysis of Shocks Affecting Europe: EMU and some Central and Eastern Acceding Countries

This paper deals with the synchronization of business cycles and economic shocks between the euro area and acceding countries. We therefore extract the business cycle component of output by using Hodrick-Prescott filter. Supply and demand shocks are recovered from estimated structural VAR models of output growth and inflation using long run restriction (Blanchard and Quah). We then check the (A) symmetry of these shocks by calculating the correlation between euro area shocks and those of the different acceding countries. We find that several acceding countries have a quite high correlation of demand shocks with the euro area however supply shocks are asymmetric; the correlation between euro area and central and east European countries (CEECs) is negative. We therefore conclude that joining the European Monetary Union is not yet possible: central and east European countries have to make structural changes to join the European Monetary Union.Central and East European countries, Euro area, SVAR models, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Symmetric-asymmetric shocks

Sources of economic fuctuations in France: A structural VAR model

This paper studies the economic fluctuations of an open economy such as the French economy. A system of variables containing output, price level, trade balance, real exchange rate and oil prices is analyzed by applying the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology initiated by Sims (1980). This set of variables allows to evaluate the main sources of impulses of the French economy fluctuations. The results show that five structural shocks are identified using the long-run constraints implemented by Blanchard and Quah (1989). From the SVAR dynamic properties, impulse response functions and variance decomposition, the French economy is shown to be particularly vulnerable to supply and oil price shocks, where these two shocks respectively contribute to 40% and 35% of the economic disturbance. France is also hit by important external shocks which damage its trade balance position. Finally, it is found that shocks related to economic policy (demand shocks) have a quite limited impact on the economic activity

Gulf Cooperation Council Monetary Union: Business Cycle Synchronization, Shocks Correlation

In this paper we assess the readiness of the Gulf cooperation council members (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain) to form a viable currency monetary area. It deals with business cycle synchronization and economic shocks correlation. To do so we employ different methods, first we extract the business cycle component of output using Hodrick-Prescott filter. Second, supply and demand shocks are recovered from an estimated structural VAR model of output growth and inflation using long run restriction (Blanchard and Quah). We then check the (A) symmetry of these shocks by calculating the correlation between GCC countries. It’s appears from our investigation that there is no business cycle synchronization evidence between GCC countries, business cycle is rather divergent among them. And despite of the demand shocks symmetry, supply shocks are rather asymmetric. We therefore conclude that there is no evidence of the readiness of the GCC members to form a monetary currency unio

DSGE Model Of A Small Open Economy: France

In this paper we asses the effects and the transmission mechanisms of domestic and external shocks (we take a productivity shock associated to an imported energy shock) on the macroeconomic variables of a small open economy, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We estimate a DSGE model in an open economy: France. In a first step, we begin by studying the cyclical features of the French economy, those of its main trading partners and the USA; this exercise enables us to make comparisons between France and its European neighbours. Once the facts are established, we will describe our model, its main features, then we solve it, make calibration and check the effects of exogenous shocks on the economic variables through the response impulse functions and the variance decomposition. Finally, we make comparison between the model’s statistical moments of order two and those related to real facts in order to assess the validity of the model. It appears from our investigation, a significant correlation of the French cyclical characteristics with those of its neighbours. The France economy is also more vulnerable to technology shocks than to price of imported energy shocks

Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: contributions from risk factor changes and treatments

Background Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey. Methods Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995–97; 2006–09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model. Results Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1–2 kg/m2 and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%–50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder. Discussion CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries