A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C

The Things You Do:Internal Models of Others' Expected Behaviour Guide Action Observation

Predictions allow humans to manage uncertainties within social interactions. Here, we investigate how explicit and implicit person models-how different people behave in different situations-shape these predictions. In a novel action identification task, participants judged whether actors interacted with or withdrew from objects. In two experiments, we manipulated, unbeknownst to participants, the two actors action likelihoods across situations, such that one actor typically interacted with one object and withdrew from the other, while the other actor showed the opposite behaviour. In Experiment 2, participants additionally received explicit information about the two individuals that either matched or mismatched their actual behaviours. The data revealed direct but dissociable effects of both kinds of person information on action identification. Implicit action likelihoods affected response times, speeding up the identification of typical relative to atypical actions, irrespective of the explicit knowledge about the individual's behaviour. Explicit person knowledge, in contrast, affected error rates, causing participants to respond according to expectations instead of observed behaviour, even when they were aware that the explicit information might not be valid. Together, the data show that internal models of others' behaviour are routinely re-activated during action observation. They provide first evidence of a person-specific social anticipation system, which predicts forthcoming actions from both explicit information and an individuals' prior behaviour in a situation. These data link action observation to recent models of predictive coding in the non-social domain where similar dissociations between implicit effects on stimulus identification and explicit behavioural wagers have been reported

Swimming physiology of European silver eels (Anguilla anguilla L.): energetic costs and effects on sexual maturation and reproduction

The European eel migrates 5,000–6,000 km to the Sargasso Sea to reproduce. Because they venture into the ocean in a pre-pubertal state and reproduce after swimming for months, a strong interaction between swimming and sexual maturation is expected. Many swimming trials have been performed in 22 swim tunnels to elucidate their performance and the impact on maturation. European eels are able to swim long distances at a cost of 10–12 mg fat/km which is 4–6 times more efficient than salmonids. The total energy costs of reproduction correspond to 67% of the fat stores. During long distance swimming, the body composition stays the same showing that energy consumption calculations cannot be based on fat alone but need to be compensated for protein oxidation. The optimal swimming speed is 0.61–0.67 m s−1, which is ~60% higher than the generally assumed cruise speed of 0.4 m s−1 and implies that female eels may reach the Sargasso Sea within 3.5 months instead of the assumed 6 months. Swimming trials showed lipid deposition and oocyte growth, which are the first steps of sexual maturation. To investigate effects of oceanic migration on maturation, we simulated group-wise migration in a large swim-gutter with seawater. These trials showed suppressed gonadotropin expression and vitellogenesis in females, while in contrast continued sexual maturation was observed in silver males. The induction of lipid deposition in the oocytes and the inhibition of vitellogenesis by swimming in females suggest a natural sequence of events quite different from artificial maturation protocols

A comprehensive overview of radioguided surgery using gamma detection probe technology

The concept of radioguided surgery, which was first developed some 60 years ago, involves the use of a radiation detection probe system for the intraoperative detection of radionuclides. The use of gamma detection probe technology in radioguided surgery has tremendously expanded and has evolved into what is now considered an established discipline within the practice of surgery, revolutionizing the surgical management of many malignancies, including breast cancer, melanoma, and colorectal cancer, as well as the surgical management of parathyroid disease. The impact of radioguided surgery on the surgical management of cancer patients includes providing vital and real-time information to the surgeon regarding the location and extent of disease, as well as regarding the assessment of surgical resection margins. Additionally, it has allowed the surgeon to minimize the surgical invasiveness of many diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, while still maintaining maximum benefit to the cancer patient. In the current review, we have attempted to comprehensively evaluate the history, technical aspects, and clinical applications of radioguided surgery using gamma detection probe technology

The Emergence of Emotions

Emotion is conscious experience. It is the affective aspect of consciousness. Emotion arises from sensory stimulation and is typically accompanied by physiological and behavioral changes in the body. Hence an emotion is a complex reaction pattern consisting of three components: a physiological component, a behavioral component, and an experiential (conscious) component. The reactions making up an emotion determine what the emotion will be recognized as. Three processes are involved in generating an emotion: (1) identification of the emotional significance of a sensory stimulus, (2) production of an affective state (emotion), and (3) regulation of the affective state. Two opposing systems in the brain (the reward and punishment systems) establish an affective value or valence (stimulus-reinforcement association) for sensory stimulation. This is process (1), the first step in the generation of an emotion. Development of stimulus-reinforcement associations (affective valence) serves as the basis for emotion expression (process 2), conditioned emotion learning acquisition and expression, memory consolidation, reinforcement-expectations, decision-making, coping responses, and social behavior. The amygdala is critical for the representation of stimulus-reinforcement associations (both reward and punishment-based) for these functions. Three distinct and separate architectural and functional areas of the prefrontal cortex (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex) are involved in the regulation of emotion (process 3). The regulation of emotion by the prefrontal cortex consists of a positive feedback interaction between the prefrontal cortex and the inferior parietal cortex resulting in the nonlinear emergence of emotion. This positive feedback and nonlinear emergence represents a type of working memory (focal attention) by which perception is reorganized and rerepresented, becoming explicit, functional, and conscious. The explicit emotion states arising may be involved in the production of voluntary new or novel intentional (adaptive) behavior, especially social behavior

The impact of viral mutations on recognition by SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells.

We identify amino acid variants within dominant SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes by interrogating global sequence data. Several variants within nucleocapsid and ORF3a epitopes have arisen independently in multiple lineages and result in loss of recognition by epitope-specific T cells assessed by IFN-γ and cytotoxic killing assays. Complete loss of T cell responsiveness was seen due to Q213K in the A∗01:01-restricted CD8+ ORF3a epitope FTSDYYQLY207-215; due to P13L, P13S, and P13T in the B∗27:05-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope QRNAPRITF9-17; and due to T362I and P365S in the A∗03:01/A∗11:01-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope KTFPPTEPK361-369. CD8+ T cell lines unable to recognize variant epitopes have diverse T cell receptor repertoires. These data demonstrate the potential for T cell evasion and highlight the need for ongoing surveillance for variants capable of escaping T cell as well as humoral immunity.This work is supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC); Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(CAMS) Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS), China; National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and UK Researchand Innovation (UKRI)/NIHR through the UK Coro-navirus Immunology Consortium (UK-CIC). Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 samples and collation of data wasundertaken by the COG-UK CONSORTIUM. COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical ResearchCouncil (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI),the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR),and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute. T.I.d.S. is supported by a Well-come Trust Intermediate Clinical Fellowship (110058/Z/15/Z). L.T. is supported by the Wellcome Trust(grant number 205228/Z/16/Z) and by theUniversity of Liverpool Centre for Excellence in Infectious DiseaseResearch (CEIDR). S.D. is funded by an NIHR GlobalResearch Professorship (NIHR300791). L.T. and S.C.M.are also supported by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Medical Countermeasures Initiative contract75F40120C00085 and the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) inEmerging and Zoonotic Infections (NIHR200907) at University of Liverpool inpartnership with Public HealthEngland (PHE), in collaboration with Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the University of Oxford.L.T. is based at the University of Liverpool. M.D.P. is funded by the NIHR Sheffield Biomedical ResearchCentre (BRC – IS-BRC-1215-20017). ISARIC4C is supported by the MRC (grant no MC_PC_19059). J.C.K.is a Wellcome Investigator (WT204969/Z/16/Z) and supported by NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centreand CIFMS. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or MRC

Optimal foraging and community structure: implications for a guild of generalist grassland herbivores

A particular linear programming model is constructed to predict the diets of each of 14 species of generalist herbivores at the National Bison Range, Montana. The herbivores have body masses ranging over seven orders of magnitude and belonging to two major taxa: insects and mammals. The linear programming model has three feeding constraints: digestive capacity, feeding time and energy requirements. A foraging strategy that maximizes daily energy intake agrees very well with the observed diets. Body size appears to be an underlying determinant of the foraging parameters leading to diet selection. Species that possess digestive capacity and feeding time constraints which approach each other in magnitude have the most generalized diets. The degree that the linear programming models change their diet predictions with a given percent change in parameter values (sensitivity) may reflect the observed ability of the species to vary their diets. In particular, the species which show the most diet variability are those whose diets tend to be balanced between monocots and dicots. The community-ecological parameters of herbivore body-size ranges and species number can possibly be related to foraging behavior.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47765/1/442_2004_Article_BF00377109.pd

Genetically elevated high-density lipoprotein cholesterol through the cholesteryl ester transfer protein gene does not associate with risk of Alzheimer's disease

Introduction: There is conflicting evidence whether high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and dementia. Genetic variation in the cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) locus is associated with altered HDL-C. We aimed to assess AD risk by genetically predicted HDL-C. Methods: Ten single nucleotide polymorphisms within the CETP locus predicting HDL-C were applied to the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP) exome chip stage 1 results in up 16,097 late onset AD cases and 18,077 cognitively normal elderly controls. We performed instrumental variables analysis using inverse variance weighting, weighted median, and MR-Egger. Results: Based on 10 single nucleotide polymorphisms distinctly predicting HDL-C in the CETP locus, we found that HDL-C was not associated with risk of AD (P > .7). Discussion: Our study does not support the role of HDL-C on risk of AD through HDL-C altered by CETP. This study does not rule out other mechanisms by which HDL-C affects risk of AD